DFS Week 5: Top lineup picks and stacks
By TJ Hernandez, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Whether you are playing in the biggest tournament of the week on Yahoo or prefer to play in smaller GPPs, there are some general positional strategies that you can implement in any size tournament. These concepts include stacking, finding pivots off of popular players, and looking for leverage in other spots. While it’s important to implement these into your lineup-building approach, the foundation of any tournament lineup is a solid core — usually players you would use in cash games.
Stacks To Target
QB Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($32)
WR Davante Adams, Packers ($33)
Surprisingly, many of the top lineups in the Baller this season have been stacks without a player on the opposing teams as fantasy managers have opted for more mini-correlation throughout their lineups. This traditional QB/WR stack offers the highest ceiling according to 4for4’s Stack Value Report.
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As three-point favorites in a game with an over/under of 50, the Packers implied total is just under 27 points. Aaron Rodgers isn’t setting the world on fire like he did in 2020 but his efficiency is near his career average, scoring a touchdown on 6.5 percent of pass attempts this season. He has two games with at least 24 Yahoo points and should be in for a third against a Bengals defense ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks.
Following Randall Cobb’s big Week 4 performance, there’s a chance that Davante Adams goes under-utilized in this spot. Although Cobb got the scores last week, Adams was targeted on over 31% of throws, his third week in a row with a target share over 30%. Only one player has more targets than Adams this season and he ranks in the top 10 in targets inside the opponents’ 10-yard line. If Rodgers goes off, Adams is still the most likely beneficiary.
QB Mac Jones, Patriots ($20)
WR Jakobi Meyers, Patriots ($13)
This stack offers one of the best ceiling values in this week’s Stack Value Report — in fact, Patriot duos make up three of the top five stack values. Mac Jones has a minimum quarterback salary but one of the best matchups of the week against a Texans defense ranked in the bottom five in schedule-adjusted points allowed to quarterbacks. Houston has allowed at least 22 Yahoo points to quarterbacks in three of their four games this season.
Jakobi Meyers is easily one of the best salary-versus-volume plays on the slate. He is one of two players averaging at least 6.5 targets per game with a salary below $15 and the only player averaging at least 10 targets per game with a salary under $20.
RB James Conner, Cardinals ($19)
WR Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($24)
One of the most prevalent correlations we’ve seen from tournament winners this year is a mini-stack with a running back and a pass-catcher from the same game. The most common thread amongst these mini-correlation has been a high-scoring environment.
In a game with a total near 50 points, the Cardinals are favored by five points at home. James Conner has been the touchdown-scorer in Arizona’s backfield, with the third-most carries in the league inside the 10 this year. Against a 49ers defense ranked 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs, Conner could exceed 20 touches with Chase Edmonds possibly limited or out.
Deebo Samuel ranks near the top of the league in every usage category for wide receivers but there are still eight receivers on the slate with a higher salary. With Trey Lance likely to start at quarterback this week, Samuel may have even more upside, as they flashed their connection on a 76-yard touchdown pass last week. Lance has thrown Samuel’s way on seven of his 19 passes this season (39%) so Samuel’s workload should be safe regardless of who is throwing for San Francisco.
Contrarian Plays to Target
WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins ($17)
Fantasy managers will have an aversion to the Miami passing game this week, despite the good matchup. The Dolphins have connected on just three passing touchdowns this season. From a tournament perspective, Miami’s side offers tons of leverage. As a team with one of the highest implied totals of the week, the Buccaneers starters will all be somewhat popular. Their defense, however, ranks last in schedule-adjusted points allowed to wide receivers and no team faces a higher passing rate in neutral game script than Tampa Bay.
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DeVante Parker leads Miami in targets, air yards, and expected touchdowns but still has a salary $2 less than his teammate, Jaylen Waddle. Parker can be used as a contrarian bring-back option in Buccaneers' stacks or as a low-rostered one-off.
WR Henry Ruggs, Raiders ($15)
The Bears will likely have two of the most popular value plays of the week in Damien Williams and Darnell Mooney, setting up tremendous leverage opportunities for anyone who rosters Raiders players after their down week.
Henry Ruggs saw a season-high 81% of snaps in Week 4 and has been targeted at least six times in three straight games. His 112 air yards per game rank eighth among players that have played four games and he is a top-seven ceiling value against a defense ranked 27th against wide receivers, according to 4for4.
Cash Game Strategy
A handful of the elite quarterbacks are off the main slate this week, catapulting low-salary passers to the top of the value ranks. With injuries setting up some tremendous value opportunities, cash players should be able to roster multiple high-floor studs.
QB: Dak Prescott, Trey Lance, Jalen Hurts, Mac Jones
RB: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Damien Williams, Aaron Jones
WR: Davante Adams, D.J. Moore, Terry McLaurin, Darnell Mooney, Diontae Johnson, Deebo Samuel, Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle
TE: Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson
DEF: Patriots, Packers, Titans
This article originally appeared in its full form on 4for4.com
TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.
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