Commentary: UND football has to walk a narrow path if it wants to make a deep playoff run
Sep. 1—GRAND FORKS — Reaching the FCS playoffs was a new and exciting step for the UND football program when it first did it in 2016.
The Fighting Hawks unexpectedly won the Big Sky Conference that year, going a perfect 8-0 in league play. The playoff run didn't last long, though. They were knocked out by Richmond in the Round of 16.
Making it that far was a big step forward for a program that was 13-19 in the Big Sky prior to that year and hadn't competed in a postseason game in nearly a decade.
Playoff appearances are no longer a novelty for UND.
The Fighting Hawks have qualified for the postseason in three of the last four years, fueled by regular-season victories over some traditional powers in FCS: Sam Houston State, South Dakota State, Montana State and Northern Iowa.
Those playoff appearances have never resulted in a deep run, though.
The Fighting Hawks have reached the quarterfinals once and have never gotten past that point.
UND will open the 2023 season at 3 p.m. Saturday at the Alerus Center against Drake with high hopes.
The Fighting Hawks have a four-year starter at quarterback in Tommy Schuster. Nearly its entire starting offensive line is back. There are playmakers at the receiver position. And there's optimism last year's porous defense will be improved under new coordinator Joel Schwenzfeier.
But if UND wants to take the next step and make a deep playoff run, it will have to walk a narrow path.
The key is to earn home playoff games.
In the last five seasons, seeded teams are 32-4 in the Round of 16 — the place UND has made playoff exits as a road team. From the Round of 16 through the semifinals, home teams are 59-11 in that span.
But UND's schedule presents a massive hurdle to getting seeded and setting the table for a deep run.
The Fighting Hawks are scheduled to play an FBS game on the road against Mountain West favorite Boise State as well as games against No. 1 South Dakota State and No. 2 North Dakota State.
If UND does not pull an upset in any of those, a seed is likely out of the picture — even if it happens to run the table with its other eight games. No three-loss teams were seeded last season.
If there are any missteps outside of those three games, the Fighting Hawks are instantly on the bubble of even making the playoffs.
This is a drill UND will have to get used to.
The Fighting Hawks will play SDSU and NDSU every season, and they've got an FBS game lined up at Power-Five schools Iowa State, Kansas State and Nebraska the next three seasons.
For UND, home playoff games might be even more paramount.
The Fighting Hawks have been a vastly different team inside the Alerus Center and outside of it.
In the last four seasons, UND is 18-2 at home. The only teams who have beaten UND in Grand Forks during that stretch went on to win the national championship (NDSU in 2021, SDSU in 2022).
In that same timeframe, UND is 6-16 on the road. The Fighting Hawks haven't had a winning road record since 2016.
UND will enter this season hoping to take the next step as a program and become a threat in playoffs. But setting the table for that run won't be easy with its schedule.
It starts with a pair of home games in Weeks 1 and 2 against Drake and Northern Arizona.
Then, the gauntlet arrives.
