College football betting: Over 90% of money is on Notre Dame

·5 min read

Week 11 of the college football season is upon us. There's plenty of interesting matchups on tap as we enter the final stretch of the season. College football playoff talk and bowl eligibility now become front of mind for everyone as there's only three weeks left in the regular season. Which games are receiving the most action this week at BetMGM?

91% of the money is on Notre Dame

It's been a pretty quiet season relative to what we normally hear about Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have just one loss, but that loss to Cincinnati has made the likelihood of a playoff appearance quite low. Nevertheless, if everything breaks perfectly for the Irish, you can make the case they're still alive. 

After opening as a 4.5-point favorite, Notre Dame is currently a 5-point road favorite over Virginia. Only 55% of the bets are on Notre Dame, but an eye-popping 91% of the betting handle is on the Fighting Irish to cover. 

Virginia's offense ranks first in yards per game, averaging 544.9 yards per contest. However, the status of quarterback Brennan Armstrong is uncertain after he left the Cavaliers' previous game with a rib injury. It sounds like he might play, which could pose a threat to Notre Dame's defense. Safety Kyle Hamilton will be out again for the Fighting Irish. 

SOUTH BEND, IN - NOVEMBER 06: Kevin Austin Jr. #4 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish scores during the game against the Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Stadium on November 6, 2021 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Bettors love Notre Dame to cover against Virginia this weekend. (Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame should have no issues. Virginia ranks 119th in yards-per play allowed and 124th in yards per game allowed. Virginia especially struggles against the run. It is allowing over six yards per rush, which ranks in the bottom five among all FBS teams. 

Can Purdue do it again?

Purdue has already knocked off two teams ranked in the top three this season. Iowa and Michigan State have fallen at the hands of the "Spoilermakers." They now head to The Horseshoe where they'll try and ruin another season. 

Oddsmakers aren't quite buying the narrative, but sharp bettors might be. Currently, Purdue is a 20.5-point road underdog against Ohio State. Just 52% of the bets are on Purdue, but 78% of the betting handle is on the Boilermakers. 

It's been a successful but inconsistent season for Purdue. It's 6-3, but the wins over Michigan State and Iowa stand out. It's worth noting that the Boilermakers have also struggled with Indiana and Nebraska, and lost to Minnesota. After beating Iowa, Purdue lost to Wisconsin 30-13. What will it do after another massive upset?

It's been a weird season for Ohio State. The Buckeyes looked unimpressive in the beginning of the season, which included losing to Oregon. Then, they got on a roll, blowing out every team that stood in their way. However, in their last two games against Penn State and Nebraska, they got the wins but didn't look overly impressive in the process. 

Purdue has beaten Ohio State in recent history. In 2018, Ohio State was ranked No. 2 in the country but got blown out by the Boilermakers 49-20. Freshman Rondale Moore had 252 all purpose yards and two touchdowns. Can David Bell star as this year's Moore?

Big money on Michigan

Michigan opened as a road underdog in Happy Valley, but the Wolverines are now a 1-point favorite. Bets on the game are almost evenly split, with Michigan getting just 51% of the bets. However, 74% of the money wagered on this game is backing Michigan to go on the road and win. 

This is a whale of a game to handicap. If we're being honest, there's probably not much separating these teams. Penn State has a less consistent but more explosive offense. Both teams are very good defensively. Penn State has three losses, but it was beating Iowa handily until Sean Clifford was injured. Then the next week, they had a let-down game and laid an egg with a still-injured Clifford. 

There's no denying that Michigan has much more to play for as its dream of making the College Football Playoff is still alive. Will this motivation help the Wolverines?

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