College football betting: How opt-outs have affected bowl game betting lines
The absences of Drake Maye and Caleb Williams have significantly affected the spreads in their teams’ bowl games.
North Carolina opened as a 3.5-point underdog against West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, but that number is now at 6.5 points at BetMGM. Maye announced earlier in the week that he wouldn’t play in the bowl game as he preps for the 2024 NFL Draft.
More than 90% of the money is on West Virginia to cover the spread — likely because Maye is officially out for the game. Oddsmakers surely had an inkling that the potential No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft would skip the game, and that possibility was probably baked into the opening line.
With Maye out, redshirt freshman Conner Harrell will start the bowl game for the Tar Heels. Harrell has attempted just six passes all season.
Williams hasn’t officially declared for the draft, but USC head coach Lincoln Riley has already said Williams won’t play in the Holiday Bowl against No. 16 Louisville. USC opened as a 6.5-point underdog to the Cardinals, and that number is now at 7.5 points.
Nearly 75% of bets are on Louisville to cover that spread, and more than 80% of the money bet on the spread is on Louisville to cover.
The Cotton Bowl has had the biggest spread shift of any bowl game so far. No. 9 Missouri opened as a 6.5-point underdog to No. 7 Ohio State and is now a 2.5-point favorite. Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord won’t play in the game, as he’s in the transfer portal, and we still await an official decision from Heisman finalist Marvin Harrison Jr.
Players such as WR Emeka Egbuka and CB Denzel Burke have already said they’re going to play in the game. Approximately two-thirds of the bets and the money are on Missouri to cover the spread, and 62% of the money on the moneyline is on Missouri to win outright.
Alabama still a popular bet
No. 4 Alabama remains BetMGM’s most popular team ahead of bowl season, as more than 70% of bets and money are on Alabama as a 1.5-point underdog against No. 1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal.
Michigan opened as a 2.5-point favorite, and the book is rooting hard for the Wolverines.
“The biggest need for BetMGM heading into bowl season is for Michigan to beat Alabama," BetMGM's Seamus Magee said in a statement. "There is lopsided action on Alabama in the semifinal and the Tide are the biggest liability to win the National Championship. Washington upsetting Texas, Florida State toppling Georgia, and Ohio State showing up against Mizzou would be positive outcomes for the sportsbook.”
Nearly 60% of money is on No. 3 Washington to cover as a 4-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl CFP semifinal against No. 2 Texas. The over/under in that game has jumped from 62.5 to 64.5.
