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College Basketball Best Bets, Nov. 22: Florida Gators vs Pittsburgh Panthers

NBC Sports
·2 min read

Vaughn Dalzell predicts the outcome of Florida versus Pitt at the Barclays Center.

Pittsburgh vs Florida (-3.5): O/U 156.5

Let's kick off our day before Thanksgiving with a College Basketball bet between Florida and Pitt at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Pitt has played all four games at home versus Binghampton, North Carolina AT&T, Florida Gulf Coast, and Jacksonville -- all four rank outside the top 200 on Kenpom and three of four on Barttorvik.

For Florida, the Gators lost a neutral court game versus Virginia (73-70), and beat Florida State, Loyola (MD), and Florida A&M by 20 or more points each. I believe Florida is a top 25 team and there are some areas they can excel at versus Pitt.

The Gators rank No. 1 in offensive rebounding percentage (50%) versus their schedule, while the Panthers rank No. 2 in defensive rebounding percentage (17.2%) against its opponents. While Pitt looks like it could negate Florida, I don't think so considering the strength of schedule difference.

Both teams shoot below 65% from the free-throw line and Pitt lives by the three-point line, which will be harder to live by on a neutral court. The Gators just held Florida State to 2-of-13 from three (15.4%), meanwhile, Pitt has attempted at least 28 three-pointers in each of its four home games.

When Pitt struggles to make threes and Florida goes on its runs, the Panthers will keep hoisting and hope shots fall because they've shot free throws below 60% from the free-throw line in two of four games.

Pitt lost by 30 and 4 points in its first two neutral court games of last season (Michigan, VCU), and lost by 15 points in its first road game of 2021 (WVU).

I played the Gators' ML at -150 odds and would opt for the -3.5 or a first-half ML play at -150 as an alternative. Follow me on X @Vmoneysports to get the occasional early line.

Pick: Florida ML (1u)
*game odds courtesy of BetMGM

Season Record: 10-2 (83.3%) +7.6 units

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