Celtics vs. Bucks series predictions: Breaking down the second-round matchup
The Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will meet in the playoffs with a spot in the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals on the line. Jayson Tatum and the Celtics’ stifling defense shut down the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and Boston completed an impressive four-game sweep over Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
Milwaukee, the defending NBA champion, eased past the overmatched Chicago Bulls in just five games, a series that ended with three blowout Bucks victories perhaps presaging the uptick in difficulty Milwaukee will present. The Celtics and Bucks split the regular-season series 2-2, with the home team winning every game.
How with the Celtics-Bucks series play out? Here are our predictions for seven series prop bets ahead of Game 1 on Sunday.
Will Khris Middleton play a game in the series?
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Tabatabaie: It feels unlikely. Even for a longer series, Game 7 would be played on May 15. Middleton’s initial injury was on April 20, and less than a month of recovery time for such a serious injury is just a big ask. Never say never, but odds are Middleton will indeed be out for the entire second round.
Quinn: I have to agree; this is not the same, for example, as Robert Williams III’s meniscal tear, which are well-documented to sometimes have relatively short return timetables in less serious cases as was Timelord’s. Everything we are hearing from those who know about MCL sprains placed a tentative return date towards the end of the series if it were less serious than we are hearing the sprain is.
Celtics vs. Bucks: Who will lead the series in total points?
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Tabatabaie: I expect the answer to this question is Giannis Antetonkounmpo. He averaged 29.9 points per game in the regular season and his Bucks are missing their second most prolific scorer. During the 2021 NBA Finals, Giannis notched 35.2 points a night – even if Milwaukee ends up losing, the Greek Freak is going to have a monster series.
Quinn: I will actually go with Jayson Tatum here given what we saw from him in the last round vs. Brooklyn, with the St. Louis native averaging 29.5 points per game through the series to Giannis’ 28.6. Add in that Tatum is shooting a hair under 42% from 3, and I’ll give the Duke product a slight edge.
How many games will the series last?
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Tabatabaie: This one is going seven. These are two exceptionally talented teams who can score the ball as well as they defend. It’s going to be hard for either club to really take control, especially given that both enjoy a relatively reliable home crowd advantage. Boston fought hard to earn the two-seed in the East, and that could pay dividends against the defending champs.
Quinn: After watching how much Boston exceeded my expectations in Round 1, I’m tempted to say just five. But it’s slander to suggest that the reigning champs will only put up a marginally better defense than the dysfunctional Nets, so I’ll say the guys in green end it on the road in Game 6.
Jayson Tatum vs. Giannis: Who will have more combined points+assists in the series?
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Tabatabaie: Giannis has the edge here, with respect to Taco Jay. Tatum has come a long way in his ability to pass the ball and get his teammates going, and he’s scoring with the best of them. But Giannis really is a cut-above, and given how central he’s going to be to everything the Bucks do, he has a chance to fill up the box score in a profound way.
Quinn: Again I’m going to go with Tatum given he logged 36.8 combined assists and points last round vs. Brooklyn to Antetokounmpo’s 34.8 against the Bulls. I would have agreed whole-heartedly with Cameron whole-heartedly as recently as December 2021, but the nascent point forward Tatum has become is thriving off of what he’s able to do with the rock for others.
Jaylen Brown vs. Jrue Holiday: Who will have more combined points+assists in the series?
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Tabatabaie: Going with Jaylen Brown here, but if the answer is Jrue Holiday, that could be a problem for the Celtics. Marcus Smart and Al Horford may shoulder a big offensive load for Boston, but ultimately the C’s need their other All-Star wing to step up if they’re going to get past such a veteran Milwaukee team. Likewise, if Holiday comes alive and steps up as a steady second option for the Bucks, it could spell big trouble for Boston.
Quinn: I have to agree with Cameron here — Brown has had a fairly larger role for Boston among both counting stats in the postseason so far. Should he be overtaken by Holiday, that would signal exactly the sort of boost in Khris Middleton’s absence (whether it’s the Bucks guard making or assisting the buckets) the Celtics can’t afford.
Who will lead the series in assists?
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Tabatabaie: Giannis will lead the series in assists. With respect to Jrue Holiday, who averaged 6.8 assists per game in round one, Antetokounmpo will really be at the center of everything for the Bucks. He’s the kind of player who rises to a challenge, and I anticipate the Greek Freak averaging a near triple-double for the series.
Quinn: Here, I agree it will be a player on Milwaukee’s roster — but a different one. Holiday has led the team all season with 6.8 dimes per game, and with me assuming Giannis will be doing the bulk of the scoring, I don’t see that trend changing.
Will Jayson Tatum score 45+ points in a game?
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Tabatabaie: It seems very unlikely, as this Bucks team is too disciplined. Losing Middleton is a big problem for Milwaukee’s wing defense, and specifically for its options against Tatum. Unless Giannis goes out early with foul trouble, however, the Bucks have too much length and switching ability for Tatum to go positively nuclear.
Quinn: Again I agree with Cameron here, barring one particular scenario — a duel between Tatum and Giannis with the opposing defense for each melting into the audience with the rest of us. But barring a historic tete a tete between the two superstar forwards, I think about 40 points in a game is the ceiling for either.
Will any player record a triple-double in the series?
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Tabatabaie: Like I said, I think Giannis might average a triple-double this series. That doesn’t mean the Bucks will advance, per se, but the Greek Freak is at the peak of his powers, and he’s going to do what he can to help his team win. Boston might prove too much for this Milwaukee team, but Giannis gets the first and last word as the undisputed best player in the series.
Quinn: If anyone will, it’s Giannis. It might not be the most compelling perspective, but it’s what the man does regardless of the game he’s playing in. I think there’s a very solid shot we could see one from Tatum or even Robert Williams III if he gets back to form in this series, but if I were forced to choose, I’ll err on the side of history.
Celtics vs. Bucks: Which team will win the series?
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Tabatabaie: Boston is going to win the series. They have too much size and depth on the wing and in the back-court. The Bucks have the best player in Giannis, but the Celtics have too many guys who can and will outplay their Milwaukee counterparts. It’s going to be a hard-fought series, and more likely a rock fight than a sprint, but the C’s will advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Quinn: Barring a performance for the ages (and by now we should agree Antetokounmpo is a man who can have one) from Giannis, I have to agree. While perhaps more seasoned and capable than Brooklyn’s wing defenders, the thought of Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews, or Bobby Portis getting switched onto one of the Jays sounds like a moveable feast for the Celtics.
This post originally appeared on Celtics Wire. Follow us on Facebook!
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