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Buffalo Bills vs Dallas Cowboys prediction and keys to critical game for both teams

sal maiorana, rochester democrat and chronicle
·10 min read

ORCHARD PARK - If you were to take into account just the records of the two teams, it would seem that the 7-6 Buffalo Bills are far more desperate for a victory Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium than the 10-3 Dallas Cowboys.

But while it’s true that there’s almost no way the Cowboys are going to miss the playoffs, they need to keep winning because they’re not only trying to win the NFC East but also the No. 1 seed in the NFC bracket. Given the way they’ve played at Jerry Jones’ 94,000-seat palace, having homefield advantage for every game would be instrumental in their quest to reach the Super Bowl for the first time since the 1995 season.

So yeah, the Bills might need it more, but the Cowboys need it, too.

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“We have to get out of Buffalo any way we can with a win,” the always talkative Jones said earlier this week. “We have nothing to prove other than just go up and try to win that ballgame. It speaks for itself. They are a really good team. We got a break; we’re not gonna be in a blizzard.

“But (Josh Allen) is very good. I have a lot of respect for what we’re up against here. It’s arguably right there with the challenge we had last week against Philadelphia (who Dallas drummed 33-13). Really, right there in terms of the quality of the team and being on the road. About the same kind of chips are on the line.”

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones roams the sidelines before game earlier this month against the New York Giants.
Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones roams the sidelines before game earlier this month against the New York Giants.

What say you, Terry Pegula? Ah, sorry, but the Buffalo Bills’ owner speaks to the media about as often as the Bills have won the Super Bowl which is to say, we never have any idea what he thinks about anything.

We can just assume that he recognizes the plight of his team and how precarious Buffalo’s situation is. The Bills head into the weekend in a six-way tie in the AFC but sit 11th thanks to three absolutely inexcusable AFC losses to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos.

Those losses are killing them in wild-card tiebreaker scenarios which is why their most direct path to the postseason may be to win the AFC East. However, they still trail Miami by two games with four to play so there’s a lot of work to do.

“We’ve been kind of approaching this as this is the playoffs for us,” Allen said. “Every game from here on out is that important. That’s how we’ve always felt. I don’t think we’ve faltered or wavered in terms of the thought process of each and every single game. But we’re not trying to look at the big picture right now. We’ve just got to focus on what we can do.”

And Sunday, that task is going to be immense against a Dallas team that, outside of San Francisco, might be the best in the NFL.

“Is the record a reflection of our team? I don’t think so, but it is the record,” Stefon Diggs said. “The only thing we can do is win the next game, win the next play. Because down this stretch, we get to see what we’re made of. And as a true competitor, if you’re a real competitor, that’s what you want. And I like being an underdog more than anything.”

Here’s my preview of Bills vs Cowboys game, followed by my pediction:

Buffalo Bills on offense

Stephon Gilmore, the Bills' 2012 first-round pick, is still going strong for the Cowboys at 33 years ofe age.
Stephon Gilmore, the Bills' 2012 first-round pick, is still going strong for the Cowboys at 33 years ofe age.

The Cowboys have played man-to-man coverage about 35.5% of the time according to Pro Football Focus which is the fourth-highest rate in the league. Their CBs, Stephon Gilmore and DaRon Bland as well as slot CB Jouran Davis will get up in opposing WRs faces and they make it tough to get clean releases, then cover well once the play unfolds. They have allowed a first down or touchdown on just 37.4% of man snaps which is the seventh-best success rate in the league.

It will be imperative for Diggs - who has been taken away from Allen pretty well in recent weeks by strong CBs like L’Jarius Sneed, Sauce Gardner and Patrick Surtain II - to win against man coverage. Wherever he lines up, offensive coordinator Joe Brady has to find ways to counter the the double teams he has been facing because it’s hard to rely on Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir or Trent Sherfield against man.

PFF has Diggs catching just 23 passes out of 154 routes run against man coverage which is not great, but way worse is Davis with 11 catches on 151 routes, while Shakir has nine catches on 84 routes. This is the problem when you don’t have receivers who can separate. Where the Bills need to strike is with TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, and RB James Cook working against LB Damone Clark and safeties Malik Hooker and Markquese Bell, and even that won’t be easy because Hooker and Bell have been sound, too.

Part of what makes Dallas’ aggressive coverage scheme work is its pass rush which can dominate games with LB Micah Parsons (82 QB pressures, 12.5 sacks), DeMarcus Lawrence (41 pressures, 4 sacks) and Dante Fowler (31 pressures) coming off the edge and Osa Odighizuwa pushing from the inside. The Cowboys force QBs to make quick decisions, so if a play isn’t open quickly, Allen may need to scramble, which is rarely a bad thing.

The Cowboys can be run on, and one way to somewhat neutralize Parsons’ speed and pass rush is to run right at him. Cook should be given a big role in this game, and the offensive line will need to be much better than it was in Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills on defense

Buffalo’s injury-ravaged defense will be confronted with its toughest challenge of the season against these hypersonic Cowboys. When the Bills played Miami in Week 4, the Dolphins were the talk of the league coming off a 70-point, 726-yard game against Denver. The Bills shut them down, but right now, there’s little question that Dallas has the NFL’s best offense.

It leads the league in scoring (32.4 points per game) and it features QB Dak Prescott playing at an MVP level, WR CeeDee Lamb playing at an All-Pro level, RB Tony Pollard is a dual threat, TE Jake Ferguson has 51 catches, and depth WRs Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks have combined for 70 catches for 939 yards and seven TDs.

The Bills rank third in the NFL in sacks with 42, but they won’t have A.J. Epenesa, and they will be up against a Dallas offensive line that PFF grades as the third-best in the NFL. If the Bills hope to have success Sunday, they will have to generate pressure on Prescott because if he has time, he could pick the Bills apart.

One thing Prescott will find out, though, is the Bills’ CB trio of Rasul Douglas, Christian Benford and Taron Johnson has played as well as any in the league. According to PFF’s cornerback ratings, among the 52 who have played at least 600 defensive snaps, Douglas (fourth), Johnson (15th) and Benford (20th) are all graded within the top 20 in the NFL.

When Buffalo has trouble in pass defense - it ranks 23rd in completion percentage against (66.2), 11th in yards allowed per game (20.7.9) and 12th in passer rating against (87.2) - it’s usually centered around sub-par coverage by the linebackers and safeties and the Cowboys will look to take advantage of that, especially with Micah Hyde out.

Would blitzing help? Sean McDermott has called blitzes on about 25% of the pass rush situations this year and the results haven’t been great. The Bills have allowed a 63.7completion percentage, 41 first downs, and five TDs while recording only 15 sacks. Blitzing Prescott may not be wise because this year he’s faced more than four rushers on 29.2% of his dropbacks and he has completed 70% of his passes, second-best behind only Patrick Mahomes, with nine TDs and three picks and only nine sacks.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 27, Cowboys 24

This is a really tough one to call. I think the Cowboys, top to bottom, are the better team, but they’re also the road team here and they haven’t been nearly as good away from Jerry World. They lost to the Cardinals, Eagles and 49ers (42-10), barely beat the Chargers (in what was essentially a home game given the crowd dynamics at SoFi Stadium), and now they have to come up to face the Bills at Highmark Stadium which is no picnic for any road team.

As I explained above, the game is big for Dallas, but it’s bigger for Buffalo and I think the Bills have a little juice right now after beating the Chiefs in Kansas City. They came together as a team after an emotional and distracting week and might be ready to run the table and make the postseason for the fifth straight year.

Bills vs. Cowboys: News and notes

▶ It’s early in his career, but Cook’s 5.14-yard average per carry is the highest ever for a Bills RB, just past C.J. Spiller who averaged 4.97. Since you’re probably wondering, Thurman Thomas’ was 4.19 and O.J. Simpson’s was 4.79.

▶ Allen, Prescott and Mahomes are tied for the league-lead with eight multiple passing TD games.

▶ Lamb has 96 receptions and Sunday he will likely tie Michael Irvin’s team record for fewest games (14) to reach 100 in a season, and he would also join Irvin as the only two players in franchise history to record multiple seasons of 100 receptions.

▶ Cowboys rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey, who never kicked in college as he played soccer at Notre Dame, has started his NFL career by making all 30 of his field goals which is a new league record. Eight have been from beyond 50 yards and last week against the Eagles he made kicks from 50, 59 and 60 yards becoming the first kicker in history to make two of at least 59 yards in the same game.

▶ Dallas’ 11 giveaways in 2023 are tied for the fewest in the NFL and is also tied with the 1998 Cowboys team for the fewest turnovers through 13 games in team history.

▶ The Cowboys have been fast starters this year as they are averaging 19.8 points in the first half, the highest first-half scoring average in the NFL this season. It is also the second-highest first-half scoring average in a season in NFL history behind the 2007 Patriots (20.8). That’s part of the reason why they lead the league with five 40-point games, tied for the most 40-point games in a season in team history.

▶ Parsons produced at least 12 sacks in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, joining Reggie White as the only players to accomplish that feat.

Buffalo Bills schedule 2023

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Cowboys prediction and keys to critical Week 15 game