Phoenix Suns in 6: Five keys to NBA playoff series against Minnesota Timberwolves

MINNEAPOLIS — The Phoenix Suns have pushed through an inconsistent regular season in which they only had the Big 3 of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal for exactly half of the team’s 82 games.

They put 24 different starting lineups on the floor largely due to numerous injuries. They've been turnover prone and had defensive issues for the first two thirds of the season.

Phoenix didn’t play up to preseason expectations as they lost three times to the 22-win Spurs. Rookie phenom Victor Wembanyama didn't even play in the last loss March 25 in San Antonio.

So why is there so much optimism for the sixth-seeded Suns going into Saturday’s Game 1 of their first-round series at third-seeded Minnesota at Target Center?

One, they went 7-3 in their last 10 games after that bad loss to the Spurs and enter the postseason on a three-game winning streak. The Suns were 11th in defensive rating in that final 10-game stretch facing the toughest remaining NBA schedule.

They’re still turning the ball over and Suns coach Frank Vogel recently said they aren't a good passing team. He could’ve just said they’re a bad one and saved himself a couple of words as the Suns are 25^th in the NBA in turnovers, but they’ve at least addressed the importance of getting back on defense.

Two, Beal has been giving folks the business as of late in averaging 26.5 points and shooting 19-of-26 from 3 in Phoenix’s last five games.

Three, they’re completely healthy outside of Damion Lee, who hasn’t played all season due to a knee injury suffered before training camp.

Lastly, they avoided the play-in and drew the most ideal first round matchup in Minnesota. The Suns swept the season series, winning all three games by an average margin of 15.6 points.

Phoenix was just in Minneapolis last Sunday and raced out to a 44-22 lead after one, hitting 8-of-11 from 3 and scored 17 points off 11 Minnesota turnovers.

The Suns couldn’t get back here soon enough. They arrived Thursday, got in a practice Friday at the University of Minnesota. They’re even turning the 30-degree weather with light snow here into a positive.

“I’m still upset, but that’s good,” Suns 7-footer Jusuf Nurkic said. “Being upset before the game is good.”

Here are five keys to this best-of-7 series. Game 1 starts Saturday at 12:30 p.m., (ESPN), and Game 2 is Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. (TNT), before shifting to Phoenix for Games 3 and 4 the following Friday and Sunday.

Prediction: Suns in 6.

T-Wolves: Stay big or go small?

The T-Wolves start two bigs in defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert and offensive force Karl-Anthony Towns, but the Suns have exploited the league’s best defense by forcing those two out of their comfort zone.

Phoenix runs pick-and-roll, spreads out the T-Wolves with their shooting and finds success in the paint against their coverages.

T-Wolves coach Chris Finch has got to make a decision. Either stay big and risk getting blitzed again or take one of the bigs off the floor for, say, Nickeil Alexander-Walker to matchup better with the Suns.

Suns: Nurkic foul trouble

Gobert is capable of a big scoring night. His career high is 35 points way back in March 2017 when playing for the Jazz, but there’s a reason he’s averaging just 12.7 points for his career.

Nurkic is the perfect foil for Gobert because he has the size to body him up and keep the T-Wolves' 7-footer off the glass, but when he left last week’s game due to foul trouble, Gobert feasted.

Can Nurkic stay out of foul trouble in his first playoff series since 2021 while playing for Portland?

Suns: Can anyone slow down Bradley Beal?

Mike Conley didn’t look like the answer last week as Beal scored 36 points, hitting 6-of-6 from 3.

Jaden McDaniels is Minnesota's top perimeter defender. So you figure he’ll be on Durant or Booker, but the T-Wolves have to be concerned with Beal’s ability to not only get in the paint to score or draw the defense, but shoot the 3.

Can anyone slow down Beal for the Timberwolves? The Suns have already put the ball in his hands to initiate the offense as the point guard. So he can be in attack mode to score or facilitate. The way he's playing right now, that's a blessing for Phoenix and an uh-oh for the T-Wolves.

Both teams: Who wins the turnover battle?

The Timberwolves are nearly as bad as the Suns on turnovers, finishing the regular season 22^nd to Phoenix ranking 25^th.

The Suns had 13 in last Sunday’s game that led to 15 Minnesota points. Those numbers are below their season average of 14.9 turnovers a game and allowing 18.2 points off them.

The Timberwolves were far worse – 24 turnovers led to 35 Phoenix points. Those numbers are above their season average of 15.1 turnovers a game and surrendering 16.3 points off them.

Whoever protects the ball better will win this series.

T-Wolves: Is it Anthony Edwards time?

Durant is an all-time great, Booker is an All-Star who will join his Suns teammate in Paris representing his country in the 2024 Paris Olympics and Beal has changed the trajectory of this team with his offense, playing the one and taking on the challenge of guarding the opposing team’s top perimeter play.

Towns should be better as that game against Phoenix was just his second one back after missing 18 with a left meniscus tear and Gobert is favored to win a fourth defensive player of the year award.

Then there’s Anthony Edwards.

He’s the most physically gifted player in this series. He too made Team USA’s final 12-man roster, is explosive, quick, takes tough shots, but has improved his shot selection and has more than arrived.

However, can he make a real difference in this series? The 22-year-old only averaged 14.3 points in his three games against Phoenix this season on 31% shooting. The Suns have had that tight shell on the inside and Nurkic has improved on playing the position defense Vogel wants.

However, Edwards is better than that. He’s much better, but is Edwards ready to take that next step and lead his team to winning a playoff series? He averaged 31.6 points in the first round of last year’s playoffs, but Denver only needed five games to dispatch the T-Wolves en route to winning its first ever NBA championship.

Fourth season, third playoff appearance, but he hasn't advanced past the first round.. Edwards is young, talented and has a great career ahead of him, but what is he going to do to give the T-Wolves the best chance to win this series against a team that has blitzed them three times this season?

Have opinions about the current state of the Suns? Reach Suns Insider Duane Rankin at dmrankin@gannett.com or contact him at 480-787-1240. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @DuaneRankin.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Phoenix Suns in 6: Five keys to series against Minnesota Timberwolves