Assessing FC Cincinnati's MLS Cup postseason preparedness
It's OK if you want to look beyond FC Cincinnati's regular-season finale on Saturday versus Atlanta United. The team itself isn't, but you can.
It's only natural to look to the forthcoming postseason with the MLS Cup playoffs just days away. FC Cincinnati will be favored to lift MLS Cup after coasting to the Supporters' Shield with games to spare, too, and the team is on the cusp of true MLS greatness. An MLS Cup to go with its Shield - an accomplishment known as the "double" - would put FCC in elite company.
But what of FC Cincinnati's real chances to win MLS Cup? What do the trends tell us about FC Cincinnati's chances in the playoffs? MLS Cup is the sporting equivalent to a highwire tightrope act. The strongest teams entering the postseason tournament are best-positioned to make deep runs, and FCC might not be in that category at the moment.
Does FCC fit the mold required for postseason success, and are the trends pointing to reason for optimism entering the postseason? We break down the upside of the club's case to go on a deep run for MLS Cup, it's biggest downside, and note a few other items that could prove problematic.
What makes FC Cincinnati a viable MLS Cup favorite?
A winning team with an MVP leader: FC Cincinnati proved it was the best club over the long haul of the regular season. That's no small feat, especially considering FCC assumed first place in May and never looked back. FC Cincinnati's front office deployed a balanced team. Rather than dominate in one facet, the club is proficient in all areas with effective defending, goalkeeping and goal-scoring in equal measure. FC Cincinnati also features Luciano Acosta, the pièce de résistance in the construction of this dominant side. Acosta is the favorite for the 2023 Landon Donovan Most Valuable Player award and is the club's go-to, clutch performer. On the rare nights when the team at-large fails, Acosta's been there to takeover push them over the top. When all else is going wrong, Acosta can dominate a match, or just stick a penalty-kick in the back of the net. Every aspiring postseason champion needs a talent like that.
Undefeated in cup play: FC Cincinnati didn't win Leagues Cup or the U.S. Open Cup but those tournaments served as excellent preparation for high-stakes, win-or-go-home playoff environments. Cincinnati did well in cup competitions, too, posting a 5-0-4 record. FCC also went .500 in the four matches decided on penalty-kicks − more good prep for the postseason, which can be decided by "PK's." Cincinnati won in every way imaginable in cup play. With a trophy on the line and one night to get the job done, FC Cincinnati's already seen it all..
FCC's a tough out: Cup competition or otherwise, FC Cincinnati is hard to beat and harder to shut out. Its five regular-season losses are the only outright, non-shootout losses of 2023 (and as mentioned above, they have a .500 record in shootouts − a good return in those high-stress situations). And when you need a goal, FC Cincinnati almost always conjures one up. Across all 42 competitive matches Cincinnati's played in 2023, they've only been blanked four times. This is a team that simply doesn't quit and they've proved to be almost impossible to put away.
...And a really tough out at TQL Stadium: In terms of where an opponent would want to challenge FC Cincinnati, there are only bad options. FCC went 7-3-7 on the road (the best road record in MLS) and is an MLS-best 13-2-1 at TQL Stadium, which is a bona fide fortress. As a reward for winning the Supporters Shield, FC Cincinnati has homefield all the way through to the MLS Cup finale. Spoken differently, FCC won't necessarily have to win a single road match this postseason, although it will play one in the middle game of the first-round series. Having the familiarity and comforts of home will be a huge advantage for FCC.
Cincinnati is deep: FC Cincinnati's preferred starting XI has been pretty consistent throughout the year. Over time, that group overwhelmingly proved effective but the supporting cast that's backed them up in 2023 is formidable, too. So, if FCC needs a spark off the bench in the playoffs or an able stand-in for injuries or suspension, they should be able to receive one. Alec Kann is a starting-caliber goalkeeper. Both Ian Murphy and Nick Hagglund are capable of starting at center back. There are multiple wing-back options. Yuya Kubo offers dynamic, two-way play in the midfield. FCC's forward depth might be leaving some to be desired right now but don't forget that Sergio Santos contributed far less in 2022 than he has this year and still managed to help craft arguably the single-most important play in club history last postseason.
The biggest concern for FC Cincinnati's playoff run
Two things happened down the stretch that could impact FC Cincinnati's sharpness when the playoffs begin. First, FCC clinched the Supporters Shield early. They claimed the trophy, along with the top overall seed in the playoffs, on Sept. 30 at Toronto FC. Clinching was good, but it complicated things as there wouldn't be much left to play for over the final three games.
Secondly, given the opportunity to push for a single-season MLS points record in the standings and give real meaning to the final three regular-season games, FC Cincinnati downshifted and effectively waved off that chance. Four days after clinching the Shield, Cincinnati opted for rest and rotation against New York Red Bulls. FCC fell behind early in that game and failed to catch up, ending the push for a new record and stripping the club of meaningful pursuits the rest of the regular season.
So, FCC hasn't played a truly meaningful game since Sept. 30. They've won since then, and won on the road against Lionel Messi's Inter Miami CF, in fact. And maybe Cincinnati will look sharp in the season finale against Atlanta United and build momentum. Maybe they can switch on in time for the opening playoff match. But that's asking a lot because the club didn't come close to replicating the intensity of a meaningful regular-season environment, and forget about replicating a playoff-type environment.
A few other red flags for FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati hasn't played its best soccer in a while: FC Cincinnati has been generally inconsistent for the last two months. That's an inconvenient truth, as well as a truth obscured by the sight of the club's first major trophy, but just look at the numbers. FCC went 15-2-6 in MLS play ahead of a month-long pause in the regular-season for Leagues Cup. Since Leagues Cup ended, FCC's posted a 5-3-2 mark. Yes, that's a winning record but it's also a higher concentration of losses and shutouts (two). Further, there was a sharp drop-off in scoring for a while. FCC went from scoring 1.7 goals per game (let's call it "gpg") prior to Leagues Cup versus 1.33 in the following six matches, and now, back up to 1.6 gpg post-Leagues Cup. They're trending back up but still below peak performance and the bottom line is this: You want to play your best soccer going into the postseason. FC Cincinnati was a little more effective than a .500 team post-Leagues Cup. Even in victory on Oct. 7 at Inter Miami CF, Pat Noonan conceded there were concerns about his club's postseason readiness. "You’re not going to win playoff games playing like that. I think the guys know it," Noonan said. And Noonan is someone who believes you have to peak at the right time in order to be successful in the postseason. Noonan said Thursday he liked how the club looked during the now-concluded international break but, as mentioned above, they wouldn't have been able to recreate a postseason-type atmosphere during the break.
If the playoffs started today, FCC would have matchup issues: Well, obviously the playoffs don't start today and there's a lot that needs to shake out on the aptly-named Decision Day, which is how MLS brands the final day of its regular season. Expect the possibility for movement in the standings. But as things stand now, FC Cincinnati's side of the Eastern Conference playoff bracket is prickly. They're looking at a first-round, best-of-three series against the winner of an No. 8 versus No. 9 play-in game between CF Montreal and New York Red Bulls. FC Cincinnati's had only the narrowest of wins against those clubs in 2023, along with a close call in September at Montreal and a home loss to RBNY. Assuming FCC survived, they'd then be looking at the winner of the Columbus Crew-New England Revolution first-round matchup. You could call that problematic due to FCC's 1-1-2 combined record against the Crew and the Revs this year. The lone victory came via a late-match goalkeeping gaffe by Columbus' Patrick Schulte, plus Cincy hasn't beaten New England since 2019. As crazy as it might seem, FC Cincinnati matches up better against the likes of Philadelphia Union, Nashville SC and Atlanta.
No shootout experience for Celentano: One of the quirks of the first-round series is that tie games will go straight to penalty-kicks. Later-round playoff matches can also go to "PK's" but only after 30 minutes of extra time. Penalties are an area FCC has some experience this year − except for one key player. FC Cincinnati's penalty-kick takers got plenty of live-game practice this year. But goalkeeping is a different story because Alec Kann was in net for FCC on all four of the aforementioned shootouts. That means Roman Celentano, the second-year starter, is yet to face a shootout scenario as a professional other than what he's faced inside the friendly confines of the Mercy Health Training Center. Maybe he'll prove to be great in a shootout situation. We just don't know what to expect, and you'd certainly feel better if he'd experienced at least one for himself. For his young MLS career, Celentano has saved two of the 12 penalty kicks he's faced but is 0-for-5 in 2023.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Assessing FC Cincinnati's MLS Cup postseason preparedness
