5 reasons this Panthers playoff team is more dangerous for Lightning
TAMPA — The Lightning have had their cross-state rival’s number in the playoffs, winning both Sunshine State series meetings with the Panthers on their way to the Stanley Cup final in 2021 and 2022.
But over time, teams change. Rosters are retooled. And players create a different identity. The Panthers team the Lightning will face in the first round of the playoffs this season is much different than the one they previously eliminated twice in the postseason.
“We’ve played them in the playoffs in the last few years; we’ve played Toronto, we’ve played Boston,” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. “You throw any of those teams in the hat and pull one out, it’s going to be a battle. And we’ve had great wars with them all.
“(Florida) probably means a little bit more, because it’s in-state. These two teams have kind of grown up together in the last five-six years. And expect the unexpected. They’re a ton of fun playing these games against them. And so I would expect nothing different than a fun series.”
Here are five reasons why this Panthers team is different — and more dangerous.
They know how to win in the playoffs
When the Lightning first faced the Panthers in the playoffs in 2021, Florida hadn’t won a postseason series since 1995-96. Even after winning a series in 2022, its Presidents’ Trophy season ended in huge disappointment when Tampa Bay swept it in the second round.
But last season, the Panthers rode a do-or-die attitude into the playoffs as the final seed in the Eastern Conference. They battled back from a 3-1 series deficit to eliminate Boston (the Presidents’ Trophy champs) in the first round, then took command against Toronto the next round with two road wins on their way to a 3-0 series lead before eliminating the Leafs in five. Against Carolina in the conference final, Florida emerged victorious in a four-overtime series opener before sweeping the ’Canes.
There are times in the postseason when games and series can shift momentum, and the Panthers figured out how to keep the ice tilted in their favor. They thrived as underdogs. Things will be different this season after they won the Atlantic Division, but they’ll still carry a chip on their shoulder against the Lightning.
They’re tougher, physically and mentally
Whether it is the playoffs, regular season or even the preseason, there are fireworks whenever the Lightning and Panthers meet. On many nights, there are plenty of penalties, physicality and fights. Last season, the Panthers adopted a tougher mentality than they possessed in previous seasons.
The 2023 blockbuster trade that brought Matthew Tkachuk to Florida and sent Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary changed the Panthers’ identity. They’ve always been a relentless forechecking team with plenty of speed and the ability to get in other teams’ faces. But Tkachuk added toughness and the message that opponents are going to have to lick their wounds when facing the Panthers. They’re no longer looking to run you out of the building. They want to punish you.
Bottom-six forward Nick Cousins will bring the Panthers into the fight. He’s a physical pest who does little things that frustrate an opponent and often elicit retaliation penalties.
They have one of the most dynamic scorers
Florida right wing Sam Reinhart did not score more than 33 goals in any of his previous nine seasons, but he has emerged as one of the league’s top goal-scorers. He finished the season with 57, second-most in the league, trailing only Leafs center Auston Matthews (69).
Reinhart has scored in all sorts of ways. His 27 power-play goals led the league and were six more than second-place finisher Leon Draisaitl of Edmonton. He also scored five short-handed goals.
What might be most amazing about Reinhart’s season is his league-best 24.5 shooting percentage. It is the highest for a player with 50 or more goals in 30 years, since Boston’s Cam Neely had 50 goals and a 27 shooting percentage in 1993-94. Reinhart has shown he’s a threat to score anytime he has the puck on his stick.
They can trust in their goaltending … we think
The Panthers had one of the top goaltending duos in the league this season, one goal shy of winning the Jennings Trophy. Starter Sergei Bobrovsky has enjoyed his best regular season in a Panthers uniform, his 2.37 goals-against average, .915 save percentage and six shutouts his best totals in five seasons with Florida.
Last postseason, Bobrovsky took over in the third game of the Panthers’ postseason run. Over a 12-game stretch, he went 11-1-0 with a 2.25 GAA and .942 save percentage before sputtering in the Cup final against Vegas (1-4-0, 4.20 GAA, .844 save percentage).
The Lightning know Bobrovsky well. He was a big reason why they were swept by the Blue Jackets in 2019′s first round, when Bobrovsky manned the net for Columbus. But in six career postseason starts against the Lightning as a member of the Panthers, Bobrovsky is 0-6-0 (with one overtime win in relief). So, this series could come down to how Bobrovsky handles the Lightning under the playoff spotlight. He was 2-1-0 with an .892 save percentage and 2.71 goals-against average against Tampa Bay in three regular-season meetings this season.
Florida also has a great backup in Anthony Stolarz, who led all qualified goaltenders with a 2.03 GAA and .925 save percentage in 27 games.
They’re a better defensive team
Even the Panthers’ best teams in recent years were ones that outscored their opponents, but this season’s team learned to win games by keeping the puck out of its own net, which is a good omen for postseason success. Just ask the Lightning.
The Panthers allowed the fewest goals per game in the league (2.41), which is a full goal better than last season (3.32), when they ranked 21st. Even Florida’s 2021-22 Presidents’ Trophy team wasn’t outstanding defensively, ranking 12th in scoring defense.
Part of it is how well Bobrovsky’s been playing, but it’s also how well they’ve played in front of him. The Panthers allowed just 27.8 shots on goal this season, third-fewest in the NHL. Last season, they allowed 31.7 shots per game, which ranked 22nd.
Florida defenseman Gustav Forsling has developed into one of the game’s top two-way defensemen. His plus-56 rating is the best by a defenseman in 28 years, since Detroit’s Vladimir Konstantinov was plus-60 in 1995-96.
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