32 Fantasy Stats, Week 10: Cowboys on the Rise
Kyler Murray attempted nine passes of 10-19 air yards.
That means that 28 percent of his throws traveled between 10 and 19 yards downfield. His career rate of intermediate throws was 18.5 percent heading into 2023. He had an aDOT of 10.4 versus the Falcons compared to a career aDOT of 7.8. This is only one game, so we shouldn’t read into it too much, but a stark shift away from Murray’s days as the face of the horizontal air raid would be a huge win for his fantasy outlook.
Bijan Robinson saw his first carry inside the five-yard line since Week 2.
This was the attempt. It was beautiful.
Bijan Robinson gets the ball from the five yard line and guess what?
He scored a touchdown. pic.twitter.com/EPgS6OxPNd— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) November 12, 2023
Between Weeks 2 and 10, Tyler Allgeier saw all three of Atlanta’s running back carries inside the five-yard line. A lack of usage near the end zone was one of the biggest factors holding Robinson back from elite fantasy numbers.
Keaton Mitchell has Pro Football Focus’s top offense grade among running backs.
Mitchell is the No. 2 runner but his efficiency as a pass-catcher has him slightly edging out De’Von Achane after three games. Mitchell also leads all running backs in yards after contact per carry, missed tackles forced per attempt, and yards per route run.
The Bills rank third in EPA per play and in eighth in points per game this season.
This is only to quell the fears that the Buffalo offense has struggled this season. Have they failed to live up to expectations? Sure. Are they still in the ballpark of where we need them to be from a fantasy angle? Absolutely.
Miles Sanders played on 40 percent of the Panthers’ snaps.
Sanders only earned two carries but he ran more routes than Chuba Hubbard in addition to the high snap share. Hubbard remains the team’s RB1, but Sanders could see enough work, specifically on passing downs, Hubbard will fall out of the RB2 ranks.
Cole Kmet has a 26 percent target share over the past three weeks.
Kmet was not targeted in Tyson Bagent’s first start four weeks ago. Ever since then, he has been an integral part of Chicago’s passing attack. He has 25 targets in his past three games. On the year, Kmet ranks seventh in target share among tight ends.
Tyler Boyd earned a season-high in targets (12).
Before Week 10, Boyd’s season-high in targets was nine all the way back in Week 3. Tee Higgins recorded season-lows in routes in Weeks 4 and 6 because of a rib injury. He missed Week 5 with the issue and was out again last week because of a hamstring injury. Tyler Boyd averaged 8.3 targets per game. He has earned 5.6 targets per week in all other games.
Jerome Ford was on the field for 66 percent of the Browns’ snaps.
Ford also earned 57 percent of Cleveland’s carries. That marks back-to-back weeks with season-highs in snap rate and carry share. Ford even came close to setting a season-high in route rate in Week 10.
Dak Prescott has thrown for 1,082 yards and 11 touchdowns over the past three weeks.
Prescott ranks second in the NFL in EPA per play and completion percentage over expected during that stretch of games. Possibly the most interesting aspect of this hot streak from Dallas is their play-calling. In their past three games, the Cowboys have a +11 percent pass rate over expected.
Javonte Williams has 73 touches over his past three games.
The Broncos have given up on their backfield-by-committee. Williams has a 69 percent carry share and a 16 percent target share since Week 7. With Denver moving the ball well but remaining balanced, Williams is approaching RB1 status.
Jahmyr Gibbs out-carried David Montgomery 3-2 inside the five-yard line.
Gibbs out-carried him 14-12 in total and also earned five targets. Montgomery was not targeted. We’ll see if this usage holds. Week 10 was Montgomery’s first game back from a three-week absence because of a rib injury. Montgomery has out-carried Gibbs 71-34 in games they have both been active for. Still, Gibbs opened the year as a pure backup and now has the chance to be the leader of a highly-productive committee.
Aaron Jones has seen over half of the Packers’ carries in three consecutive games.
Jones has 52 touches over the past three weeks and exactly four catches in each of those games. As Matt LaFleur previously told us, Jones appears to be back to 100 percent healthy and they're using him as such.
Devin Singletary is the fourth player to reach 30 carries in a game this year.
The Texans unleashed C.J. Stroud on early downs in Week 9 but returned to their balanced ways in Week 10. They ran the ball on 49 percent of their first and second downs versus the Bengals. To OC Bobby Slowik’s credit, Houston’s ground game was getting the job done for the first time this season. They averaged .18 EPA on their early down runs. If you ignore the fact that Stroud was putting up .81 EPA on his early down throws, the run-heavy script seems excusable.
Jonathan Taylor out-carried Zack Moss 23-1.
It appears as though the Zack Moss experience has come to an end. Moss played on eight snaps and logged a single touch in Week 10. Taylor, on the other hand, took the field for 89 percent of Indy’s offensive plays.
Per Pro Football Focus, Calvin Ridley has five receptions between the numbers this season.
That means that 86 percent of his receptions have come on the outside of the field. For reference, Chris Olave, who has also been used as a somewhat frustrating boundary receiver at times, has pulled in 39 percent of his catches between the numbers.
Josh Jacobs has averaged 20 touches for 94 yards with an interim coach on the headset.
That’s not actually any different than his career average. It’s shockingly within one touch and two yards of his averages since the day he was drafted. But it’s good to know that when a new man dons the headset, they still pile on the carries and targets for Jacobs.
Jalen Guyton out-targeted Quentin Johnston 6-4.
Johnston earned a 10 percent target share, though he did find the end zone for the first time this year. Guyton had six targets in the last 15 months of his career heading into Week 10 and still managed to out-target Johnston. Guyton also ran as many routes as Johnston.
Ty Chandler saw eight touches before Alexander Mattison suffered a concussion.
Chandler got up to 15 touches by the end of the day while Kene Nwangwu earned just two touches. The fact that Chandler only had two fewer touches than Mattison before the latter suffered his injury points to a committee when Mattison returns. Given the shift in the backfield that was already taking place, Chandler could dominate the touches for Minnesota while Mattison is sidelined.
Hunter Henry has seen 75 percent of the Patriots’ end zone targets over the past two weeks.
That is only two end zone targets, but Henry has also run a route on 82 percent of his team’s dropbacks and has a 19 percent target share over the past two weeks. As has been the case with Demario Douglas, the loss of multiple passing game weapons has pumped up Henry’s role in New England’s air attack.
A.T. Perry ran a route on 89 percent of the Saints' dropbacks.
Perry is a sixth-round pick who first saw the field in Week 9. He went for 152 receptions, 2,389 yards, and 26 touchdowns in his final two seasons at Wake Forest. He also showed out at the combine with a 9.6 RAS. The Saints are on bye this week, but with Michael Thomas likely to miss an extended period of time, Perry is worth an add in deeper leagues.
The Giants have a -12 percent pass rate over expected over the past three weeks.
With Tommy DeVito under center, there’s no life on this offense. Saquon Barkley has posted two usable fantasy games over his past three games, but he also appears to be miles from a blowup performance. His best game with DeVito getting reps saw Barkley turning 39 touches into 16 PPR points.
Breece Hall hasn’t rushed for anywhere between 56 and 127 yards this year.
That’s a 71-yard middle ground of rushing production that Breece has yet to land in. The boom/bust nature of his style has seen him finish as an RB1 twice as often as he has finished as an RB2. While it’s fair to wish his floor was higher, there are worse things than a running back finishing as a top-12 fantasy option nearly half of the time.
Jaylen Warren has out-snapped Najee Harris in two of the past three weeks.
Most importantly, Mike Tomlin named Warren the starter for Week 11. Warren went on to play more snaps and run more routes than Harris. The former first-rounder did, however, out-carry Warren 16-15. Still, this is a clear sign that Warren’s role is growing at the expense of Harris’s touches.
Chrisitan McCaffrey leads the 49ers in targets when he, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk are healthy.
For those curious, I used Weeks 1, 2, 4, and 10 for these stats. All four of the 49ers’ big names logged snap shares of at least 70 percent in these games. The target breakdown in these games is:
Ken Walker has played on 46 percent of the Seahawks’ snaps over the past three weeks.
His carry share sits at 60 percent and his route rate is at 30 percent over that span. Heading into Week 8, Walker had seen 75 percent of the Seahawks’ carries and was running a route on 47 percent of Geno Smith’s dropbacks. Walker went from dominating all of Seattle’s work on the ground plus a part-time role through the air to a true committee back.
Rachaad White is averaging 20.3 touches per game over his past four games.
Of those touches, 27 were receptions or carries in the red zone. Not only is White getting plenty of work, but he’s also getting the most valuable kinds of work.
Kyle Philips has led the Titans in receiving yards in back-to-back games.
Philips has run a route on less than half of Will Levis’ dropbacks over the past two weeks. The fact that Philips isn’t out there often and is still pacing the team in receiving production looks like an obvious bug of the offense, not a feature.
Sam Howell leads the NFL in passing yards (2,783), attempts (397), and completions (264).
Howell’s absurd volume has propelled him to league-leading numbers despite middling efficiency, but he deserves some credit for cleaning up his play in recent weeks. Through seven games, Howell led the NFL in allowed pressures. He also converted his pressures to sacks at a league-leading, 33 percent rate and had five interceptions while under pressure. Over the past three weeks, Howell has only allowed 10 percent of his pressures to get him and he has no interceptions plus three touchdowns while pressured.
