2023 Rookie Wide Receiver Review, Part One: Hold Jaxon Smith-Njigba

With the 2023 regular season over, it’s time to look at the rookie class and see how they stack up to the freshmen of previous years. For a more detailed description of what I mean when I reference a player’s production as a percentile (i.e., Charbonnet finished below the 50th percentile in yards per game), check out Part One of my running back breakdown. The short story is it measures players against previous rookie seasons with similar draft capital. Higher numbers are better.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks

The first receiver off the board this year, Smith-Njigba was never going to post a record-breaking campaign while playing alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but Seahawks fans and fantasy managers alike were hoping for more than 628 yards and a WR48 finish. JSN missed the final few weeks of training camp with a wrist injury and was deployed as a part-time player for the first month of the season. He didn’t move around the formation much and was typically relegated to slot duties. JSN ran 69 percent of his routes from the slot as a rookie but was significantly more efficient by yards per route run when lined up out wide.

For first-round rookies, Smith-Njigba fell below the 50th percentile in yards and fantasy points per game but did cross that threshold in receptions. An offseason injury plus middling production and subpar efficiency make JSN’s rookie campaign look extremely similar to that of Rashod Bateman. As someone who was still in on Bateman after his rookie (and sophomore) season, there are worse comparisons for JSN. With a new coaching staff on the headset and Tyler Lockett turning 32 at the start of the 2024 season, there should be some hope that Smith-Njigba’s usage expands by both volume and scope in his second season. Dynasty managers should at least see what it will take to pry Smith-Njigba from his current roster.

Quentin Johnston, Chargers

Where do we begin with Johnston? The TCU receiver entered the league as a toolsy receiver with the body of a jump-ball specialist but the advanced metrics of a YAC monster. That mismatch was apparent in his college tape and the lack of refinement in his game immediately cost him playing time. Johnson ran a route on 28 percent of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks in his first three games, but a season-ending injury for Mike Williams ultimately forced LA’s hand. Though Johnston’s route rate bloomed after Williams went down, his production remained in the basement. Even with Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer missing stretches of games, Johnston rarely stepped up, topping 52 yards in one game while never amassing more than five receptions.

Johnston narrowly escaped the bottom 20th percentile in yards, catches, and fantasy points for a first-round rookie. Since 2010, a dozen other first-round rookies have averaged within 10 yards per game of Johnston. Three of them have gone on to top 1,000 receiving yards at some point in their career. The somewhat good news is that the vast majority of those 12 players improved their receiving output in their second season. From a dynasty perspective, players who have performed similarly to Johnston as a rookie have improved but rarely reach a ceiling outcome. I think it’s worth holding onto Johnston for a year as opposed to selling low right now, as there is likely a better or at least equal window coming after his second season.

Zay Flowers, Ravens

Flowers was a standout throughout training camp and rode that momentum into the regular season, catching three passes for 106 yards and a touchdown. He scored four receiving touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in his first five games. His production cooled in the middle of the season, but he closed the year by averaging 5.6 catches for 63 yards over his final seven games. He ranks above the 90th percentile for first-round rookies in receptions per game but was notably less impressive in yards and fantasy points.

The big knock on Flowers’ rookie season will be his subpar efficiency. The Ravens used him primarily near the line of scrimmage and schemed him loads of targets. Per Pro Football Focus, nearly a quarter of his targets were screens and 64.4 percent of his targets came within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. This played a notable part in him finishing the year at 45th in yards per route run. On the other hand, the Ravens don’t view him exclusively as a YAC guy because 20 percent of his targets were at least 20 yards downfield.

He also lined up out wide on nearly 70 percent of his routes. Flowers’ usage reminds me of Devonta Smith’s while playing alongside A.J. Brown. The Eagles scheme him plenty of screens but also use his speed to beat defenders deep while A.J. Brown handles a larger share of the mid-range targets. I’m skeptical that Flowers can ascend to true WR1 target domination, but he has the highest floor out of the first-round rookies.

Jordan Addison, Vikings

Addison’s production profile is entirely flipped compared to Flowers. Addison caught seven fewer passes while playing in one more game. He also logged a target share (17.8 percent) over six points lower than Flowers. On the other hand, Addison posted a better yards per target while also catching 10 touchdown passes, putting his weekly fantasy output above the 80th percentile for a first-round rookie. He doesn’t rank quite as well in receptions or yards per game, but both marks are around the 75th percentile.

Addison’s rookie season compares closely to that of Calvin Ridley. Though touchdowns are more random than other stats we use to judge receivers, they do still tell us something about a player's skill. More importantly, they’re going to earn Addison more opportunities to score touchdowns down the road.

That is on top of a successful rookie season by catches and yards as well. The roadblock standing in Addison’s way to WR1 fantasy numbers is Justin Jefferson. Both he and T.J. Hockenson saw a significantly higher cut of Minnesota’s first-read targets in 2023 and that may not change anytime soon. There is also the concern about Kirk Cousins' looming free agency. Say what you want about Cousins, but there is no denying he is a great quarterback for the sake of his receiver's fantasy production.

Jonathan Mingo, Panthers

It’s impossible to separate Mingo’s rookie season from the dumpster fire that was the Carolina Panthers, but even when you try to do so, it doesn’t look pretty. Mingo’s counting stats—43 catches for 418 yards—are actually solid for a Day 2 rookie. The problem with relying fully on those numbers is they don’t adequately compare him to players who flashed high-end production on lighter workloads or in smaller subsets of their rookie seasons. Mingo finished 30th among wide receivers in routes but 75th in receiving yards. He ranked 89th in yards per route run and 108th in ESPN’s Open Score. Mingo also struggled to generate YAC according to both Pro Football Focus and ESPN. The Ole Miss receiver never posted a true breakout season (30 percent dominator) in college and only came close by wrecking a terrible Vanderbilt defense and an FCS school as a senior. All of the warning signs were there for him as a prospect and he struggled to make good on his YAC-generating style versus NFL defenses.

Mingo lacked polish in college and was fully exposed at the next level. He now needs to gain the favor of a new coaching staff, all while relying on his second-year quarterback to not look like Zach Wilson again. If there is a sell-low receiver from the 2023 class, it’s Mingo.

Jayden Reed, Packers

With Christian Watson missing much of the 2023 season due to injuries, Reed was asked to step into a prominent role early in the season. He didn’t disappoint and posted one of the 10 best fantasy seasons (PPR points per game) for a Day 2 receiver in the past quarter century. Reed’s receiving production—64 catches for 793 yards and eight touchdowns—was top notch and he juiced the fantasy numbers with some rushing output. He turned 11 carries into 119 yards and two scores.

Reed led the Packers in targets per route run and yards per route run in the regular season. As has been the case with the previous names on this list, the question of whether Reed can be a true No. 1 is undecided. Three-quarters of his routes came from the slot and because his team only viewed him as a slot receiver, he was often the receiver they took off the field when they moved out of 11-personnel. He never ran a route on 80 percent of his team’s dropbacks in a single game. While he was used in this very specific role as a rookie, Reed wasn’t a slot-only player in college. His best season came during his first year at Michigan State. He averaged 2.8 yards per route run while playing 86 percent of his receiving snaps from out wide. Given how well Reed played as a rookie and his background of being used in other ways, I expect his role to grow in his second season.