2019 Fantasy Baseball Relief Pitcher Preview: To save or not to save

There are different ways to address saves at draft tables, but it usually requires a strategy going in unlike other positions. Your league may vary compared to those with overall contests, and in some formats, punting saves altogether may be a viable strategy. It’s certainly the category in which FAAB is most aggressively spent in-season, as there’s a finite amount of saves that can be recorded, and having that role becomes more important than actual skills.

There’s always been a ton of turnover at the closer position, but last year saw the most relievers record a save in a season in MLB history, continuing an ongoing trend of teams using more pitchers to finish games.

While that should mean getting a top closer is more crucial than ever, Edwin Diaz costs such an early pick, and the rest of the top-five relievers (according to Yahoo ADP) have their own question marks.

[Positional Rankings: Top 300 Overall | C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | P ]

Kenley Jansen (see below) has a declining fastball with real life health issues; Blake Treinen is awfully expensive for a 30 year old one season removed from posting a 1.39 WHIP and being a complete afterthought; Aroldis Chapman has never gotten more than 80 percent of the Yankees’ saves, and NY now has an even deeper/better bullpen. He’s averaged just 50.2 innings with the Yankees while staying relatively healthy; Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned, and it sounds like his preferred fantasy landing spot back with the Red Sox may not happen. He’ll obviously close when he signs a deal, but who knows when that will be, and he has a good amount of mileage on an arm that’s at an age when relievers often start breaking down.

If you want to expand to the next tier, it could be argued there are only about a dozen or so relief pitchers who have been officially named their team’s closer, and good luck figuring out the crapshoot that is the rest. Knowing your specific league’s tendencies will help when creating a strategy to attack saves at draft tables, but in general, it sure seems like waiting on closers is the best and most effective way to win your fantasy league.

Good luck trying to figure out the chaos that is the saves category — because you’ll need it.

Which relief pitcher is a strong buy for the 2019 fantasy season?

Dalton: From 2014-2017, Andrew Miller posted a 1.72 ERA and 0.79 WHIP with 421 strikeouts over 261.0 innings before a down season last year that was likely the result of pitching through injuries. The Cardinals deemed him fit enough to give a $25 million deal during the offseason, and because the team has hinted it will use a committee to close, his price tag is plenty affordable at draft tables.

Miller posted those silly numbers in the A.L. and now rejoins the National League, so he should give you dominant ratios if his knee cooperates. Jordan Hicks has the big fastball but is no lock to close with his extremely shaky control, so don’t be surprised if Miller flirts with 30 saves this season.

Scott: I’m a Kirby Yates believer. He trimmed his home run rate last year, moved the walks down, and kept the strikeout clip in outer space (12.9/9). And after Brad Hand was traded to Cleveland, Yates was the only Padres reliever to record a save. It’s definitely his gig, and while San Diego might not be a contender in 2019, its wins figure to be close ones, given the shape of the roster and the playability of the park. There aren’t many stoppers I’m willing to draft proactively this year, but Yates is a nice buy at Yahoo ADP 116.

Andy: Brandon Morrow never actually lost the closing role for the Cubs, so we still need to view him as a potential piece of the ninth inning puzzle. But he’s a player with an injury history who’s now recovering from elbow surgery, and he can’t possibly be expected to contribute until May at the earliest. This team’s best end-game option in the early weeks is pretty clearly Pedro Strop, who’s posted exceptional ratios over his six years in Chicago (2.63 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 10.2 K/9). He saved 13 games last season, so he’s approved for use in the ninth. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise if he ran away with the gig, assuming a strong start.

Conversely, who do you think will be a fantasy bust at the position?

Scott: I don’t care about the name-brand value with Craig Kimbrel — he’s become too stressful for me. His walk rate ballooned to 4.5/9 last year, and he was a carnival ride in the playoffs (10.2 IP, 7 ER, 8 BB). And it’s not like Kimbrel is some heavy-usage dominator — he hasn’t made it to 70 innings since 2011. I still figure some MLB club will cut a pretty Kimbrel check, and I expect them to regret that contract. Don’t buy in at the high end of his range; at a Yahoo ADP of 71, let someone else take the plunge.

Andy: Raisel Iglesias is an excellent pitcher who’s saved 58 games over the past two seasons, and this year’s version of the Cincinnati Reds should be quite a bit more successful than last year’s club. But the new manager happens to have a few reasonable, modern ideas that could interfere with Iglesias’ fantasy value…

Obviously, that’s not enough to put a valuable reliever on your do-not-draft list, but we do need to take David Bell at his word. It’s not the first time the Reds have signaled such a thing about Iglesias’ usage. Whatever you might have previously projected for his save total, it seems wise to reduce it by, say, 20-25 percent.

Dalton: Kenley Jansen led all of baseball in K-BB% from 2014-2017, but a noticeable drop in velocity last season led to the highest ERA and the lowest SwStr% of his career. Of course, a 3.01 ERA (and 13.5 SwStr%) is still plenty good, and saving games for the Dodgers is a great setup, but Jansen is coming off heart surgery, and it’s a condition that’s obviously serious and could creep back up at any moment.

The continued decrease in velocity and effectiveness of Jansen’s fastball is especially worrisome given he throws the pitch almost exclusively (94.2% of the time last season). There’s an unusually high-risk factor for the No. 2 RP off the board in Yahoo leagues, so Jansen’s a pass for me.

[Batter up: Join or create a 2019 Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for free today]

Let’s mix it up. Who is the non-closer reliever you would target this year?

Andy: If you play in a league with a full-season innings limit, as is the default at Yahoo, then you’ll want to have a reliever like Chad Green parked in one of your pitching roster spots. He’s struck out a ridiculous 197 batters in 144.2 IP over the past two years, posting a WHIP of 0.90. When your innings are limited, you need to prioritize K-rate over strikeout totals. Green is a gift to roto owners. He isn’t challenging for ninth inning chances, but he’ll still carry significant value.

Dalton: There are a bunch of intriguing relievers to stash in your drafts this year, but give me Joe Jimenez, who posted dominant minor league numbers (1.56 ERA, 13.0 K/9) and more importantly, is behind arguably the shakiest pitcher who enters 2019 in a closer’s role. Shane Green somehow recorded 32 saves last year, but THE BAT projects a 4.42 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP this season, which would actually be an improvement over 2018. Despite their current roles, I have Jimenez ranked higher than Greene right now.

Scott: Shawn Armstrong doesn’t have a long MLB resume, but he’s the most intriguing reliever in the Seattle bullpen. He was a closer for Triple-A Tacoma last year (15 saves, 1.77 ERA), then passed the test in a brief Seattle audition (14.2 IP, 9 H, 2 R, 3 BB, 15 K). Hunter Strickland is probably the team’s on-paper closer, but there can’t be a long leash there — Strickland had a 3.97 ERA and 1.41 WHIP last year and was run out of San Francisco. Scribble Armstrong on your late-round target list. (If you want a reliever who simply will provide smooth innings without a likely path to saves, I strongly endorse the Behrens call on Green.)

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