11 predictions for Patriots training camp: Can Bill Belichick overcome talent issues?
The New England Patriots are at a pivot point in their franchise’s history. Bill Belichick and the Patriots did not immediately bounce back from the departure of Tom Brady. New England had a so-so year with quarterback Cam Newton at the helm in 2020 and an improved season with Mac Jones in 2021. If those were the Patriots’ rebuilding years, then New England is at an exciting moment in its franchise. But there’s no guaranteeing those were the worst of it. It’s possible that 2022 ends up getting ugly for the Patriots. They did, after all, get worse this offseason — at least on paper — with the departure of top cornerback J.C. Jackson and a handful of veteran linebackers including Dont’a Hightower.
But somehow, Belichick’s teams are rarely defined by the amount of talent they have on paper. So we’ll watch and wait to see what this team has to offer in an AFC that’s insanely competitive and impressive.
Let’s dive into predictions for training camp.
Mac Jones lines himself up for top 10 season -- in 2023
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
There’s only the slimmest of chances that Jones ekes his way into the Top 10, which is a particularly crowded space in today’s NFL. There are simply too many good quarterbacks for Jones to earn consideration at the end of 2022, even with a deep supporting cast on offense.
That’s why I think Jones’ work this year — where he takes a substantial step forward while remaining reliant upon the rushing attack — will set him up to earn a spot in the Top 10 in 2023.
While this doesn’t seem like a training camp prediction, it is. Jones is taking the second-year leap during training camp. These are the valuable practices where Jones being to earn a bigger ownership share of the offense. New England won’t dump the offense on him all at once. Last year, Jones relied largely on his rushing game. This year, the Patriots might rely upon the passing and rushing attacks equally. And next year, New England should be at a spot where it can rely up on Jones. That comes through a strong training camp this year to prove the team can keep building around him.
Matt Patricia takes over as the Patriots offensive play-caller
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Joe Judge may be working with the quarterbacks but Patricia was the one relaying plays during minicamp — a notable responsibility in the wake of former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ departure for the Las Vegans Raiders this offseason. New England elected not to name an offensive coordinator to replace him, even if it seems like Patricia will be the de-facto OC.
Behind the scenes, McDaniels’ duties will get divvied up between Belichick, Patricia, Judge, Nick Caley and Troy Brown. But when Sundays roll around, I suspect Patricia will be the one calling plays into Jones’ headset. Patricia and Belichick will likely work together to make the final decision on the actual play called — and they’ll probably work off a play sheet designed by the entire offensive staff.
Jonnu Smith renews faith for a big season, but Nelson Agholor's situation remains muddled
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Ultimately, these two players may simply go the way of their respective opportunities. Smith has only one real competitor: Hunter Henry. Neither Dalton Keene nor Devin Asiasi look ready to compete for snaps. So in an offense that is likely to feature significantly more two-tight-end sets than last year, Smith figures to benefit in a big way. He should come out of training camp looking like the weapon the Patriots paid so much to acquire.
As for Agholor, he looked extremely impressive during minicamp. In two days, he seemed to make more splash plays than in the entirety of open training camp last year. That said, it’s about opportunities. Over the course of training camp, we should see newcomers DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton grow more comfortable with the offense. They’ll work against Agholor, Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers for snaps. And if the Patriots are featuring their tight ends more often, they’ll feature their running backs and receivers less often. That could mean the Patriots added more receivers to fight for fewer snaps.
It’ll be interesting for those two second-year Patriots.
No one wins the position battles at cornerback
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The Patriots are likely going to use six different players at the cornerback position. There might be no winner of the position battles. Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones are probably going to split snaps in slot, often depending upon the matchup. And then Malcolm Butler, Jack Jones, Terrance Mitchell and Jalen Mills will probably rotate at the outside cornerback spots, where I don’t think there will be a CB1 or CB2 — at least not to start the season.
It’s weird to think that the most interesting position battle is also the one where no one will win. But I genuinely believe that could happen.
Josh Uche earns his keep as a three-down player
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Uche has long been the king of unpadded practices. And that’s not actually a great title to own. Unpadded practices are basically the least important place to enjoy success. So Uche needs to start stringing together impressive padded practices, preseason games and then regular season games. That, of course, starts in training camp where Uche should finally win over a gig as a three-down linebacker. He will likely win a spot on the inside in run-defense situations and on the outside for pass-rushing situations.
Tre Nixon misses the cut when the Patriots trim to 53 men
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Speaking of kings of unpadded practice, Nixon spent minicamp roasting the Patriots secondary. I am eager to see what Nixon can bring to the offense when pads go on. If he can contribute in a contact-heavy environment, he has hope of sticking in this crowded group of Patriots receivers. But because the group is so crowded and because Nixon is a diminutive receiver, I’m skeptical that he’ll enjoy as much success when the pads go on. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nixon ends up like Uche: a standout without pads and The Invisible Man in pads.
Jabrill Peppers earns playing time by working at four different positions
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If Peppers were simply going to play safety in 2022, he might not see the field very often. So the versatile weapon should find other ways to stand out. Peppers might just get snaps at safety, linebacker, cornerback, kick returner and punt returner during the course of training camp. By the time the season rolls around, he’ll probably find a way to contribute at three or four of those five spots.
The Patriots do not have an undrafted free agent on the roster in Week 1
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As much as this year’s roster is lacking in marquee talents, the Patriots have a wild amount of depth — along with a very large rookie draft class. So where does an undrafted free agent fit? New England has a running streak of 18 years of giving a roster spot to an undrafted rookie in Week 1. This year looks as tough as any to project that rookie.
Center Kody Russey, defensive tackle LaBryan Ray, defensive end DaMarcus Mitchell, punter Jake Julien and special teams ace Brenden Schooler are all candidates.
New England is a bigger nightmare than ever for fantasy football owners
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The Patriots leaned heavily upon their running backs in 2021 which made Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson into valuable players in fantasy football. Even Henry was a reliable player for the first 13 games when he was putting up big touchdown totals.
But with the Patriots likely focusing more on the passing offense and New England’s running back committee getting deeper in 2022, the Patriots players will likely be a mess for fantasy football owners. The receivers are five deep. The tight ends are two deep. And the running backs might just be five deep.
It is probably smart not to draft Patriots players for your fantasy team.
Either Cam McGrone or Ronnie Perkins proves a disappointment
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
The hype surrounding both McGrone and Perkins feels a bit premature. These young linebackers have risen up the depth chart out of necessity — and not necessarily based on their merits in the NFL. Maybe they’re kicking butt behind the scenes and they’ve been outstanding in practices. But when it comes to NFL game experience, McGrone has none and Perkins has very little. So as they both look to take the second-year leap, they’ll have no shortage of obstacles. McGrone will spend his first full year on the field since getting knee surgery. Perkins will apply all that he learned about a brand new position in 2021.
It’s not fair to expect either player to shine. But let’s be optimistic and say that one of them is impressive and the other disappoints.
Bill Belichick shows off his versatility by floating into every phase of the game
(AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
Belichick was asked when he plans to announce his offensive play-caller to players. And Belichick said the following.
“Look, I’m the head coach. Ultimately, I’m responsible for everything. So that’s what it is.”
It seems the Patriots coach will take on duties in every phase of the game in 2022: offense, defense, special teams. Surely, he does that every year. But over the last two years, he leaned more toward the defense. This year, he seems to be leaning back toward the offense after McDaniels’ departure. Belichick is going to do a lot — and a little bit of everything for the Patriots in 2022.
