10 keys to winning your Week 15 fantasy football matchup
Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri will use this space to deliver his keys to victory every week of the 2023 NFL season.
Finding No. 1: The best RB spot of the week belongs to Rachaad White
White is coming off his third-straight game of 100+ total yards and he’s seen the best usage in football the past two weeks. White has earned 26 opportunities per game during this time while playing nearly 90% of the Buccaneers snaps. His recent success should continue this week in a strong matchup.
White will face a Packers defense that continues to give it up to opposing RBs. Saquon Barkley earned 100+ yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay last week. But it wasn’t just Saquon; even QB Tommy DeVito had over 70 rushing yards against the Packers. Green Bay now allows the most rushing production in the past two months of the season. This is a great spot for White.
Finding No. 2: The sketchy spot of the week belongs to James Conner
The last time we saw Conner was in Week 13 when he saw his best usage since returning from injury. Conner played 76% of the snaps and earned a season-high 26 opportunities on his way to a 22.5-point fantasy day.
That’s all fantastic, but now he returns from his bye week in a brutal spot. Conner will take on the 49ers as the Cardinals are a 12.5-point underdog. San Francisco allows the fewest rushing yards per game this season. There’s some concern that Conner could lose snaps and passing-down work to Michael Carter if Arizona falls behind. In Week 12, we saw Carter play 38% of the snaps and run more routes than Conner as Arizona played from behind against the Rams. This is a sketchy spot for Conner.
Finding No. 3: Noah Brown is the pick-up-and-play of the week
It may seem strange to recommend Brown as a pick-up-and-play after his dazzling zero-point performance in Week 14 but hear me out. The Houston offense had its worst game of the year this past week and there were a lot of reasons for this. The Texans entered the game without Tank Dell and quickly lost Nico Collins to injury. They played in a first-half rain storm and C.J. Stroud later left with injury.
You could say this was a less-than-ideal spot for Brown.
But his underlying usage was good. Brown saw his routes increase without Tank Dell and earned a solid 19% target share. There’s a chance he’s going to be the Texans' No. 1 receiver this week if Collins is out. In two games without Collins earlier this season, Brown averaged 162 yards per game. He’ll face the Titans twice in the next three weeks. Tennessee allows the most production to outside receivers. Pick up and play Brown, who is available in over 50% of leagues, but be sure to monitor his injury status.
Finding No. 4: Zay Flowers' usage is something to watch
He returned from his bye in Week 14 and saw his role change. Through his first 12 games, Flowers had an average depth of target of just eight yards downfield. This usage made it difficult for him to generate big plays. But in Week 14, his average depth of target increased by 50%. This helped him produce a strong 17-point fantasy day.
The volume has always been consistently high for Flowers. He’s earned at least 20% of the Ravens' targets in 10 of his 12 games this season and nine targets per game without Mark Andrews. If his downfield usage continues, we are looking at an end-of-year league winner in Baltimore.
Finding No. 5: Roschon Johnson is trending down
In Week 12 before his bye week, we watched as Johnson earned season-high usage on Monday Night Football. He played 75% of the snaps and had 15 touches. He was worth adding at that point; why not see what happens after his bye?
Well, now that we’ve seen it, we can officially say Johnson is trending down. D’Onta Foreman returned from injury in Week 14. This was the first time since Week 1 that Chicago had all three of its backs healthy. This resulted in Foreman commanding the backfield, playing 56% of the snaps while Johnson saw just 27%. In games where Chicago is trailing Johnson may see more work, but it’s clear he won’t be a workhorse back like we saw in Week 12, now that Foreman is active.
Finding No. 6: Zay Jones is trending up
He’s seen his usage slowly increase since returning from injury in Week 11. In Week 13, Jones ran 93% of the Jaguars' routes and earned 18% of the targets. This was solid usage but he played part of this game without Trevor Lawrence.
In Week 14, with Lawrence active and no Christian Kirk, Jones saw a season-high in usage. He led the Jaguars with 14 targets. He’s now averaged 9.3 targets in his three games this season as an every-down receiver. Jones is trending up at the right time, as he’ll take on a struggling Ravens secondary, the Bucs and Panthers in the next three weeks. You should add him if available.
Finding No. 7: Chase Brown is a rookie on the rise
Brown returned from injury in Week 13 and was immediately involved in the offense. He earned nine carries, which was six more than any other backup had seen behind Mixon this season. Then in Week 14, Brown’s usage increased even more.
He saw his snaps double and he turned 11 opportunities into 105 total yards and a score. The fifth-round rookie is known for his athleticism and ability to consistently produce. Last year in college, Brown totaled nearly 1,900 yards and had 100+ yards in 83% of his games. He’s one of the best backups in fantasy football right now and he’s a FLEX option in deeper leagues this week against Minnesota.
Finding No. 8: Did the Dawson Knox return matter?
Knox returned from injury in Week 14 and there was one major question: how would this affect Dalton Kincaid? Kincaid was running 16% more routes and earning twice as many targets per game with Knox out the past five games.
In Week 14, Knox returned and ran just 39% of the routes and earned three targets. Surprisingly, this didn’t cut into Kincaid’s usage as the rookie ran 86% of the routes and earned seven targets. The only noticeable difference is Kincaid was running shorter routes but this could've been matchup-specific. WR Khalil Shakir took the biggest hit as his routes run decreased by 16% in this game.
It's possible the Bills were limiting Knox and we see him used more in the future. There’s still some risk here for Kincaid, but as of now, his role looks to be strong.
Finding No. 9: Evan Engram vs. man coverage is a trend that matters
We mentioned last week on the Binge, Stream, Skip episode of the Yahoo Fantasy Football Show that Evan Engram was in a quietly good matchup. His matchup against the Browns concerned some people who were only looking at fantasy points per game allowed to the position, but you have to go deeper than that.
Evan Engram has dominated man coverage this season. He averages six catches per game against man-heavy defenses and the Browns rank in the top five in man coverage usage this year.
The result? Engram produced an 11-catch day and scored two touchdowns. Next up is a matchup against the Ravens, who play man coverage at an above-average rate. Expect another nice day from Engram in Week 15.
Finding No. 10: The Baltimore Ravens have a messy backfield (again)
The Ravens backfield was a mess in Week 14. We were hopeful we’d see a rookie breakout from Keaton Mitchell as his usage was increasing in all four games before the Ravens' bye week. Mitchell earned 46% of the snaps and a solid 11 opportunities the last time we saw him in Week 12. Everything was looking great — until it wasn’t.
In Week 14, the Ravens gave all three of their backs 20+ snaps. Mitchell saw his snap share decrease to just 34% in this game. The positive news is he led the backfield while seeing 56% of the opportunities, but this isn’t enough to be a breakout player down the stretch, especially when you consider Lamar Jackson is running out of this backfield as well.
The Week 14 usage for Keaton was a disappointment. He’s still someone to hold on fantasy rosters as he’s averaging nine yards per touch, but 2023 may not be the year for his breakout.
