Step-by-step guide to drafting a QB

San Francisco 49ers owner and team president Jed York summed it up in early February as he looked back at the selection of quarterback Alex Smith with the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2005.

"If I knew that we were going to go through five offensive coordinators in his first five years, I never would have had us take Alex," York said. "It hasn't been fair to him or to the team."

Alex Smith may have brushed off the "bust" tag on his jersey after posting a career high in QB rating and TD passes in 2009.
(Getty Images)

Hindsight is a great teacher. There's no way for the 49ers to have known that they would go through Mike McCarthy, Norv Turner, Jim Hostler, Mike Martz and now Jimmy Raye. Fortunately, Raye is sticking around for a second season.

The Niners' pick of Smith should serve as a cautionary tale for other teams looking to invest in a rookie quarterback. A franchise had better do more than the usual diligence about whether the prospect can play. It had better have a strong plan on how to support that player and build around him, especially in a suddenly troublesome draft class of quarterbacks. (Top talents such as Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy are recovering from injuries, Bradford and McCoy's being serious.)

Seven of the top 11 teams in the draft could take quarterbacks in April. From St. Louis at No. 1 to Denver or Jacksonville at 10 or 11 (they'll flip a coin soon to determine who goes where), there is the usual serious need for passers. That's particularly true at a time when the level of play at the position is so good.

If any of those teams are to make an investment in a quarterback, they should adhere to these requirements:

Step 1: Understand the player's faults

Aside from the rotating offensive coordinator situation, the 49ers didn't understand one of Smith's biggest flaws. He had run a system in college (the Urban Meyer spread formation) that required relatively simple reads. While Smith was good at it, the combination of shifting to a pro-set offense and learning to take the ball from under center was too much for him early on.

Likewise, Oakland didn't understand the tendencies of quarterback JaMarcus Russell(notes), the No. 1 overall pick in 2007. The book on Russell, even in college, is that he requires an authority figure leaning on him constantly to make sure he works hard. Yeah, Russell has been tagged with being lazy, but that's not exactly right. He'll work, but he has to be prodded. The Raiders now have hired offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, a guy who isn't afraid to ride herd. Sadly, it may be too late.

Step 2: Build around the quarterback

Peyton Manning, pictured in 1998, didn't have to worry about a shortage of help on the offensive side of the ball.
(Getty Images)

When the Indianapolis Colts took Peyton Manning(notes) with the No. 1 overall pick in the 1998 draft, they already had wide receiver Marvin Harrison(notes) in the fold. Presumably, such a great pitch-and-catch combination should have allowed Indy's brilliant personnel man, Bill Polian, to use his next few high picks on defensive players.

Not exactly. In the next five years, the Colts selected running back Edgerrin James(notes), wide receiver Reggie Wayne(notes) and tight end Dallas Clark(notes) in the first round. In fact, in the 11 drafts since Manning was selected, the Colts first have taken a running back, wide receiver or tight end six times.

Likewise, after taking Ben Roethlisberger(notes) in the first round in 2004, the Steelers used their first-round pick in three of the next four drafts to take tight end Heath Miller(notes), wide receiver Santonio Holmes(notes) and running back Rashard Mendenhall(notes).

By contrast, after the 49ers took Smith in 2005, they used their 2006 pick on tight end Vernon Davis(notes) but didn't take a wide receiver in the top two rounds until Michael Crabtree(notes) last year. In Oakland, the Raiders have turned the wide receiver position into a revolving door, although they did take Darrius Heyward-Bey(notes) in the first round this year. That said, Heyward-Bey appears to be a hyphenated way to spell bust.

Step 3: Follow a plan on offense

The key to long-term success is commitment, and the Smith situation is the ultimate example. There's not much the 49ers could have done about losing McCarthy and Turner in back-to-back years. Both got head coaching jobs. The problem was the 49ers didn't stay on the same offensive path.

Yeah, the McCarthy offense wasn't drastically different than what Turner tried to do. Hostler tried to run the same attack as Turner, but he had no clue about calling plays. Martz's system also was similar to Turner's, but Martz is in love with throwing the ball and the 49ers didn't have the right weapons to do what he wanted.

The lesson here is to build a staff where the system can be run as coaches are replaced. This was the genius of what Bill Walsh built with the 49ers once upon a time. When McCarthy left, there should have been a quarterbacks coach or other assistant ready to step into the job.

Or the 49ers should have hired an offensive coach from the start if they were going to rebuild the offense. Former coach Mike Nolan, who made the decision to draft Smith, was a defensive guy. If the coach who drafted Smith had been putting in his own offense, the 49ers and Smith might have overcome the loss of so many offensive coordinators.

Instead, they're just hoping things get better.

DOES SKELTON MOVE UP?

The quarterbacks in the draft getting the most attention are well known, but all come with some significant question. Oklahoma's Sam Bradford has the shoulder injury. Likewise, Colt McCoy has to show he has recovered from the dead arm he suffered in the Rose Bowl. Jimmy Clausen has a toe injury, and Tim Tebow has to change his throwing motion.

That means that some guys in the next group could get a long look. Among them is Fordham's John Skelton, a 6-foot-5, 244-pound guy with a cannon arm and some distant resemblance to Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco(notes).

Aside from arm strength, much of that has to do with the fact that both played in the Patriot League, which is not a major Division I conference.

"Joe kind of paved the way for guys in our league," Skelton said after a two-hour workout at Brett Fischer Sports Physical Therapy in Phoenix.

Rather than having to overcome the reputation of playing in a small program, Skelton has to overcome what many feel is a bad rap. As Skelton was practicing for the East-West Shrine Game in Orlando last month, ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay had some serious criticism of Skelton's work habits.

"I have no idea where that came from," Skelton said. "I didn't even hear it, but my family did and they were pretty upset."

Fischer, who trains with the likes of Donovan McNabb(notes), pitcher Kerry Wood and numerous other top athletes, was equally bewildered: "I saw that and I was thinking, 'Are you kidding me? Are you just trying to fill time?' "

The criticism also seems odd to NFL personnel men. Three from teams that will be interested in taking quarterbacks said last week that while Skelton's work ethic isn't perfect, it's not poor.

"I'd say mediocre is a good term, but that's because he wasn't challenged," an NFC personnel executive said. "In that environment, there weren't too many guys on his level. On that team, he was all they really had. They didn't have anybody to help him."

Said another NFC personnel man: "The leadership didn't come naturally to him, but I don't think he runs from it. I think he needs somebody to point him in the right direction and he'll be OK. It'll just be a matter if he can become a player."

Former NFL quarterback Travis Brown(notes), who spent six years as a backup to the likes of Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe(notes), Donovan McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck(notes), compared Skelton's arm with all of them. "Yeah, his arm is as strong as all of them, if not stronger," Brown said.

As for the work ethic question, Brown dismissed it.

"Anyone who says that about John hasn't worked with him," Brown said. "… He never backed away from anything I asked him to do, and he came in trying to learn. He came in knowing he didn't have all the answers, and he was eager to find out what he didn't know."

THIS AND THAT

Hardy

• Mississippi defensive end/outside linebacker Greg Hardy has the talent to sneak into the first round, but he has to overcome questions about his durability. Apparently, Ole Miss coaches have been critical of Hardy to NFL scouts because of generic "character concerns." That's not the real reason. "He's not a bad kid; the coaches just hated him because he wouldn't play through injury," one personnel man said. "Apparently it was pretty serious, so it's hard to say the kid was wrong. To me, the more important question is whether he'll be able to stay healthy at our level." A foot stress fracture slowed Hardy early in the 2009 season and a wrist fracture ended his campaign in mid-November.

• Having mentioned Russell, the Raiders currently have a member of their staff hanging out with him on a regular basis, even during the offseason. It's unfair to call this person a spy, but it's not that far removed. Also, although Russell has denied it each of the past two years, a source close to him said he was more than 300 pounds in each of the past offseasons, doing his best to drop weight about three weeks before camp.

• Former Arizona and Denver quarterback Jake Plummer(notes) can be found hanging out in the Phoenix area today. While Plummer looks fit, he doesn't look like a guy who used to play football. He has dropped about 20 pounds of muscle mass and is sporting a thick, long and untamed beard.

• For all those fans (yep, including me) of Stanford running back Toby Gerhart, the guy who barely lost to Alabama's Mark Ingram in the Heisman race, the news later this week might not be so good. According to two people, Gerhart's medical report is likely to feature a number of lingering injuries from his hard-running college days. It likely will be enough to drop Gerhart out of the first round.

• Arizona quarterback Matt Leinart(notes) will have much to prove as he enters his fifth season in the NFL and replaces Kurt Warner(notes) as the Cardinals starter. One teammate recently gave Leinart little chance to become a successful player or even a good leader. "A complete [soft guy]," one Cardinals player said. Ouch.