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Environment is the major key to fantasy football production. These rankings, updated weekly throughout the season, assess the foundation upon which fantasy football statistics rise (or fall). NFL offenses are ranked 1-32 in the following categories: red zone possessions per game (trips inside the opposing 20-yard line), third down conversion percentage, yards per rush attempt, yards per pass attempt and sack percentage allowed. The objective is to look for outliers – the handful of teams where fantasy performance isn't tracking these foundational ranks – so we can better predict players who are set up to improve or decline. Also use these rankings to target weak offenses when selecting a fantasy defense for the coming week (in formats that score points allowed and QB sacks).
|Fantasy Team Power Rankings|
RZ/Game = rank in red zone possessions per game
3rd% = rank in 3rd-down conversion percentage
YPC = rank in yards per carry
YPA = rank in yards per pass attempt
Sack% = rank in sacks allowed percentage
Summary: Small sample size caveats apply. But the best systems for predicting performance with a lot of data are also the best with limited data. The Seahawks are crippled with injuries, including to QB Matt Hasselbeck(notes), so forget about them. As Joe Flacco(notes) goes so goes the Ravens offense, and Flacco is going great. I'm not surprised but disappointed that the Redskins crack the top 10. Washington's QB Jason Campbell(notes) protects the ball but cannot make the big plays necessary to score; I don't buy this ranking. Lots of surprises at the bottom. Pittsburgh isn't a surprise to me, as they continue to be unable to adequately protect their QB. The Cardinals have thus far lost the explosiveness that was their 2008 trademark. Houston has had to face Rex Ryan's Jets and the Titans, who shut down the running game. I'd play all of their big players without fear. Green Bay is scaring me because their offensive line play has been very poor at clearing lanes for the running game and, most importantly, protecting Aaron Rodgers (last in sack percentage allowed).
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