FIBA's Final Four
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The four remaining teams in the medal round of the FIBA world championships enter the semifinals with a combined 28-0 record, so I don't feel I'm going out on a limb when I announce that Spain, Argentina, the United States and Greece are the top four basketball teams in the world.
The question is: Who is the best?
The two berths into Sunday's title game will be decided on Friday, when the U.S. takes on Greece and Argentina meets Spain.
Here's a look at each semifinal matchup:
UNITED STATES VS. GREECE
The Americans enter the game with the perfect mindset: They're confident but a little on edge following a poor shooting performance against Germany in the quarterfinals.
The U.S. may not be the best outside shooting team in the world, but the Americans are much better than what they showed against Germany when they made only 10 of 40 threes. In fact, they entered that game shooting 42 percent as a team from three-point range. But after poor shooting nights from virtually everyone on the roster, Team USA has to be champing at the bit to get back out on the floor.
Nothing makes a shooter more focused than a poor night from the field. I'd be surprised if the Americans don't come out and shoot very well from the perimeter against Greece on Friday. They'd better, though. The Greeks are one of the top defensive teams in the tournament, and they gave up only 56 points in their quarterfinal win over France.
Greece is a big, physical team that prides itself on defense. It is a veteran crew with plenty of international success – it won the European championship last year – and the Greeks are second in the tournament in steals per game (11.9). They will get after the USA on the perimeter, and it will be imperative for Chris Paul and Kirk Hinrich to get the U.S. into its offense without error.
The Americans lead the tournament in fewest turnovers committed (10.7 per game), so they've done a great job so far in handling pressure. But they haven't faced the kind of defense that Greece will offer. More than likely the Greeks will mix in some zone with their tight man-to-man defense, especially after seeing the U.S. struggle against Germany's zone. But this is primarily a man-to-man defensive team that brings physical play and pressure.
Offensively, Greece does a great job of slowing down the tempo. This is not a high-scoring team – it's averaging just 81.7 points per game in the tournament – but the Greeks share the ball and get very balanced scoring. Greece has eight players who average seven points or more, led by shooting guard Vasileios Spanoulis at 11.3 points per game. The Greeks take good care of the ball, run time off the clock and execute extremely well offensively.
Against the U.S., Greece must do a good job on the boards. The American team crushed Germany on the glass, offsetting a poor shooting night and creating second-chance opportunities. Greece can't allow Team USA extra possessions, so it will focus hard on taking care of the glass.
Mike Krzyzewski's team will try to push the ball in transition against Greece to create a fast pace. But if the Americans are unable to generate the kind of game they want, they'll have to execute their half-court offense and make shots. Carmelo Anthony has been the USA's best scorer, and he needs to have a big night shooting the ball.
The one question that hasn't been answered yet in this tournament is whether or not Team USA can win a close game. Only twice has it been involved in tight contests in the second half, and both times the Americans broke things open before the fourth quarter began. There's a good chance this game will come down to fourth-quarter execution, and Greece has a major edge as far as experience is concerned. The Greeks have played together for a long time and been through countless pressure situations, including several in their run to the European championship a year ago.
In the end, though, I think the Americans will take care of business. They've been the best offensive and defensive team in the tournament, they've taken care of the ball and, for the most part, they have shot the ball well from the outside. Now is their time to prove that they've brought U.S. basketball back to where it should be.
Prediction: USA 86, Greece 74.
ARGENTINA VS. SPAIN
This is perhaps the most anticipated game of the tournament so far. Spain and Argentina are remarkably similar in style and pace, and the teams know each other awfully well, having played twice already this summer (with Spain winning both contests). In addition, many of the players on the two teams have played together professionally in Europe, so there won't be any surprises on the floor. It will be an up-tempo, well-executed game between two terrific teams.
Statistically the clubs are very similar. Spain averages 93 points; Argentina scores 89 a game. Spain shoots 38 percent from three, Argentina 37 percent. Spain gets to the free-throw line a bit more – mainly due to the inside play of Pau Gasol – but Argentina shoots a better percentage (76 percent to 71 percent). Both teams are very good on the glass. Argentina might be a little better with its offensive execution – the team leads the tournament in assists (19.9 a game) – while Spain is a little better defensively.
Overall, this is a very even matchup that will most likely come down to the final few minutes, at which point execution makes the difference. If that's the case, Argentina may have the advantage. Manu Ginobili and company run their sets with beautiful motion and hard cuts and picks, and they're very difficult to cover. Just ask Larry Brown and the 2004 U.S. Olympic team.
Spain, though, is a talented, veteran club that boasts a number of NBA players. Gasol is the star, of course, and he is one of the tourney's leading scorers (21 points per game). But he will have plenty of help from shooting guard Juan-Carlos Navarro, the team's second leading scorer (14.6), and Toronto Raptors signee Jorge Garbajosa, a hard-nosed forward. Garbajosa's Raptors teammate Jose Calderon runs the show for Spain, and he does a terrific job getting the team into its offense without turning the ball over. His backcourt mate, Rudy Fernandez, is an excellent three-point shooter with an NBA future. As a group, Spain plays very well together and is potent offensively, shooting 51.5 percent for the tournament.
Argentina is led by Ginobili but also by Chicago Bulls forward Andres Nocioni, who sets the tone with his intense, physical play. Point guard duties are handled by former Temple point guard Pepe Sanchez, who has 45 assists in tournament play. The Argentineans will operate the flex offense, which incorporates a series of cross screens followed by down picks, and they usually find an open shooter with their precise execution. But Spain's defense is disciplined and physical, and Argentina will not score as easily as it has earlier in the tourney. Spain will try to run Argentina off of those picks, be physical and try to disrupt the offensive flow.
Argentina may be the favorite, having won the Olympic gold medal in 2004 and the silver at the world championships in 2002. But Spain has beaten the Argentines in 16 of 18 contests overall in international play over the years, including an early-round game in Athens and two exhibitions in preparation for this tournament. Spain has the confidence it can beat Argentina, and the team is playing at a very high level right now. Riding the dominating presence of Gasol and playing physical defense, I think Spain will beat Argentina and advance to the championship game on Sunday.
Prediction: Spain 86, Argentina 82.
