NCAA Hockey 101: BU's up-and-down start no surprise
Last season, Boston University went to the NCAA final and probably should have won the national title if not for a legendary gaffe by one of the best goaltenders in the country.
This season, there were high expectations that they could do some serious damage at the national level once again, even without the aforementioned great goaltender (Matt O'Connor, who signed with Ottawa), the best freshman in college hockey history (Jack Eichel, drafted by Buffalo), and one of the nation's premier two-way forwards (Evan Rodrigues, who signed with Buffalo). Other than that the Terriers really only lost a decent second-line scoring option who is now plying his trade in the ECHL. Moreover, BU had perhaps the nation's top rookie class coming in, including two second-round picks in the 2015 draft (Jacob Forsbacka Karlsson and Jordan Greenway) and a likely mid-first for 2016 (Charlie McAvoy).
Obviously BU, currently ranked No. 8 on the back of last year's performance, accomplished a lot on the strength of what Eichel's line and O'Connor did alone, but they also boasted one of the better blue line groups in the nation, headlined by a number of past mid-round draft picks Matt Grzelcyk (Boston Bruins, 2012 third), John MacLeod (Tampa Bay Lightning, 2014 second), Brandon Hickey (Calgary Flames, 2014 third), and Doyle Somerby (New York Islanders, 2012 fifth). Given who they brought in, this is a team that, frankly, is going to be healthy-scratching at least one guy who could be a middle-of-the-lineup defensemen on any team in the country this season.
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It was a bit surprising to see BU chosen by coaches and media alike as most likely to finish second in the conference behind archrival Boston College. Yes, they were in the national title game last year. Yes, they have a great D corps and the best recruiting class in the nation. But the question marks that surround the team are considerable.
They boil down, however, to two very glaring questions: Who puts the puck in the net for these guys, and who keeps it out? Having a great defense can get you pretty far (look where it got BU in 2009), but without quality goaltending and a solid offense, there's only so much even having six elite defensemen can do.
In net, there's Sean Maguire, a Pittsburgh draft pick, and undrafted Connor LaCouvee. The former played for BU two years ago and was pretty good (.919) but took last season off with concussion problems, which is awful to hear about. The latter played only six games last year and was statistically below average for the season (.913). Betting on one of those two guys to seize the job, or to have success splitting time, always seemed like something of a dicey proposition given how difficult it was for BU, even with Eichel's line and O'Connor, to win the league title last season; despite all that, only four points separated them from a third-place finish, so it's not like they ran away with the conference.
Meanwhile, the offense has been fine if a little underwhelming. The Terriers are scoring 3.5 goals per night, good for a tie at 18 of 60 in the national picture. Three guys share the team lead with three goals in six games, and the top line is producing about a goal a game, but all that comes as BU hasn't exactly faced the stiffest competition. They played No. 17 Merrimack and No. 5 Denver this weekend, and that's two solid opponents, but UConn for two, Wisconsin, and Union haven't exactly been lighting the world on fire.
And so far, the Terriers have done little to allay the fears people had for them. They're 3-3-0, and 1-2-0 in three league games, and only in the Denver game have they beaten an actual quality opponent. They split with UConn, but UConn lost to Alabama-Huntsville this year, which gives you an idea of where that program is at. They beat Wisconsin, but only because everyone beats Wisconsin (their only two wins are against Arizona State).
That comes largely because LaCouvee and Maguire have combined to stop just .865 so far this season, which is obviously abysmal. Coach David Quinn, though, is bullish on their future performance.
“I know we’re going to get great goaltending,” Quinn said after LaCouvee stopped 34 of 38 in Saturday's 5-4 overtime win. “Statistically, it doesn’t look that way right now. But to be 3-3 with the save percentage we have, with two guys that I know are really good, that I know are going to be able to win big games like we did tonight, I have no doubt. It’s the least of our concerns.”
However, there's also the issue of the offense having been a little pop-gun at times. Some of the same things that plagued the Terriers two years ago when they only won 10 games are in evidence in the attacking zone: They don't get to the area around the net all that effectively, and they pass up too many looks they should be taking. The good news is that, unlike two years ago, the Terriers are now at least a dominant possession team (57.4 percent). Though, again, look at who they've played; these are mostly clubs that a team as good as BU should be dominating on the puck.
“Tonight I thought we added a grit element [offensively],” Quinn said. “The first two goals were at the doorstep. I talk about how I want [the refs] to review every goal because they're worried about if, 'Are they interfering with the goalie?' That's how you know you're in the area and paying the price to score. We haven't been doing that and tonight we did it and got five goals.”
It is literally impossible to replace a Jack Eichel, obviously. But what few people seem to have considered is that putting him on the top line made the matchups easier for everyone else. With Eichel playing in the NHL where he belongs, everyone gets shuffled back up the depth chart, and scoring becomes a lot harder for even guys like Ahti Oksanen who had a world of success last year, scoring 25 goals. This season he had to wait until Saturday to get his first two of the year, despite taking 29 shots to get there.
And the fact is Saturday's win over Denver, a big W for sure, was in no way guaranteed. They led 4-2 entering the third period, then got thoroughly pushed around, allowing 18 shots and two goals. Oksanen won it just 18 seconds into OT, but it could have very easily gone the other way. And they know it.
“I think our third period was a microcosm of where we are mentally right now,” Quinn said. “I don’t know if we’re really ready to win and put teams away.”
Maybe, at some point this year, they will be. But then again, maybe they won't.
Denver goes 0-fer in trip to Boston
And speaking of Denver, Saturday's result was basically why they invented the word “heartbreaker.”
On Friday night, they played a riotously entertaining game at No. 4 Boston College, in which they rallied from an early third-period deficit to tie the game with 3:55 remaining. Then they conceded with just 36 seconds or so remaining and ended up losing.
Then they go down the road to play BU the following afternoon for another extremely watchable game, fight back from a two-goal third-period deficit, and lose 21 seconds into overtime.
Sometimes the world isn't fair. The Pioneers played very well this weekend and flew back home to Denver with a pair of losses to show for it. The total amount of time between the game-winning goals and the final whistle in two games was 36 seconds.
“It's two losses in a row this weekend that are pretty demoralizing,” said Denver coach Jim Montgomery. “This is a pretty mentally tough group, and you see it in the fact that we were down 4-2 in the third and just kept coming. That's our attitude is just be relentless.
“To come in on the road and play as well as we did against two of what everyone thinks at the end of the year is gonna be NCAA tournament teams, and play 'em in their barn, and face a lot of adversity on the road, and they're at home so they're sleeping in their own beds. There's a lot of positives to draw from it, but at Denver we don't take solace from losses and good play.”
So you can take it for them: If they keep playing like that (well, maybe not playing with a deficit for the bulk of two straight third periods), the Pioneers are going to win a bunch of games.
Robert Morris wins at Michigan
The good news for Robert Morris is that they started the year with the ability to pick up some league wins. The first two weeks of the season they hosted Air Force and visited Niagara for two games apiece, and went 2-0-2. That's a solid start.
But then things got tough, or at least should have done.
You go out to No. 10 Michigan and you shouldn't have much hope of walking out of there with points, especially if you're used to playing minnows in Atlantic Hockey. And Friday night went just about as well as you probably could have expected: They lost 5-3 behind a four-goal third period from the Wolverines, got outshot 47-30, and outattempted 74-47 at full strength. Not great.
The next night, though, things were very different. They scored four times at 5-on-5, and considerably narrowed the possession gap. More important, Dalton Izyk stopped all 34 shots he faced.
The 4-0 win was the first time Robert Morris beat a team in the top-10 since it shout out Miami in 2012.
A somewhat arbitrary ranking of teams which are pretty good in my opinion only (and just for right now but maybe for a little longer too?)
1. Providence College (swept at Colgate)
2. North Dakota (swept at Colorado College)
3. Quinnipiac (idle)
4. Boston College (beat Denver)
5. Michigan (split with Robert Morris)
6. UMass Lowell (split at Minnesota-Duluth)
7. Denver (lost at BC, lost at BU
8. Nebraska Omaha (got swept at Western Michigan)
9. Merrimack (beat BU, lost to UNH)
10. Boston University (lost at Merrimack, beat Denver)
Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist and also covers the NCAA for College Hockey News. His email is here and his Twitter is here.
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