Women's World Cup 2023: How Canada can advance to knockout stage
Here's what Canada needs to do in order to avoid an early exit at the Women's World Cup.
Canada is focused on advancing to the knockout stage of the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup, although its pathway just became a bit more complicated after Nigeria pulled off a stunning 3-1 upset over Australia on Thursday.
Two teams will advance from Group B and Canada and Nigeria are sitting in pole position with four points each. Australia trails with three points, while Ireland was eliminated following a 2-1 loss to Canada on Wednesday.
With one game remaining in the group stage, here’s how Canada can advance to the knockout stage of the tournament.
Win or draw vs. Australia
This is the simplest path. It’s a task easier said than done, as Australia has been a fixture in the Round of 16 since 2007, while appearing in three consecutive quarterfinals from 2007-15.
Australia’s captain, Sam Kerr, is widely considered one of the best players in the world but suffered a calf injury prior to the tournament and is a game-time decision. Kerr won’t be at 100% if she plays, but Canada will have to account for her at all times, as the Chelsea forward is a prolific goal scorer who only needs an inch to punish the defence.
Draw vs. Australia AND Nigeria loss or draw vs. Ireland and superior goal difference or goals scored
Although this scenario seems complex, it’s a lot easier than the stipulations above seem to imply. A draw vs. Australia on Monday would give Canada five points, while Australia would have four points. If Nigeria were to draw Ireland, it would also finish the group with five points and would advance alongside Canada. If Nigeria lost to Ireland and Canada drew Australia, Canada would emerge as the Group B winner.
It’s also worth noting that Canada and Nigeria sport a plus-one goal differential, while Australia remains at zero.
Loss vs. Australia AND Nigeria loss vs. Ireland and superior goal difference or goals scored
Take a deep breath and prepare for discomfort. It’s entirely plausible that Canada, the No. 7 side in the world, could lose to No. 10 Australia, even if Kerr is glued to the bench. If Australia were to defeat Canada, it would finish with six points. Canada would be stuck on four points and would therefore require a Nigeria loss to advance.
In this scenario, if Nigeria were to lose, Australia would win Group B, while Canada and Nigeria would fight for the runner-up spot on goal differential. If the tiebreaker comes down to goals scored, Nigeria holds the advantage with three goals through two games, while Canada has two. Canada and Nigeria drew 1-1, thereby the head-to-head matchup is effectively useless in determining which side advances.
If Nigeria drew against Ireland and Australia defeated Canada, Nigeria would emerge as the Group B winner, while Australia would advance as the runner-up.
It’s an exciting stage of the tournament and Canada would be considered heavy favourites against its opponent from Group A, as it would be expected to knock off Switzerland or New Zealand with relative ease. But this is the beauty of the group stage: Canada can’t rely on hubris and look ahead to the Round of 16, it still has unfinished business as the tournament steadily marches onward.
