WNBA MVP race: Making the case for A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Alyssa Thomas

The WNBA regular season is three-quarters of the way over, the mini Commissioner’s Cup break is here and the two stars of the best teams in the standings were fittingly named Conference Players of the Week on Tuesday.

New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (East POY) and Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson (West) are once again at the center of the league’s attention and are heavy favorites to win the MVP. (Wilson edged Stewart last year with eight more first-place votes to earn her second award.) Wilson averaged 29.7 ppg, 11.7 rpg and 1.7 apg in a perfect 3-0 week. Stewart, whose sole MVP came in 2018 with the Seattle Storm, averaged 31.5 ppg, 9 rpg and 6 apg to lead the Liberty to a 2-0 record.

The two faced each other in the Commissioner’s Cup final Tuesday, but those statistics do not count toward the regular season totals. They will meet again Thursday with many voters and fans sizing the two up directly against each other for MVP.

Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas is also in MVP contention and arguably overlooked in the race since Stewart and Wilson have taken their spots as the faces of the league’s next generation. All three have played 30 games, are on teams that have pulled away from the rest of the field and have hit historical WNBA marks already. MVP votes are submitted before the postseason begins by a national panel of sportswriters and broadcasters and the end-of-season awards are announced throughout the playoffs.

The three leading candidates are in alphabetical order with statistics as of Monday and analysis for their chances of winning the award.

Breanna Stewart

New York Liberty (24-6, 2nd in standings, 3 GB) — clinched playoff spot
MPG: 34.4 (fourth)
PPG: 23.3 (second) — behind Jewell Loyd (24.1)
Shooting line: 46.6 FG% (39th) / 38.1 3FG% (22nd) / 85.4 FT% (22nd)
RPG: 9.2 (fourth)
APG: 3.8 (16th)
SPG: 1.5 (seventh)
BPG: 1.5 (fifth)
Efficiency (EFF): 27.8 (first)
Win Shares: 9.3 (first)

Season accolades: First to score at least 40 points in three games in a single season, doing so against the Fever twice (45, 42) and the Mercury (43). Stewart became the second player in league history to record at least 500 points, 200 rebounds and 50 made 3-pointers through the first 25 games of a season. Maya Moore was the first to do so, and accomplished the feat in 2014 when she won MVP.

MVP analysis: Stewart, 28, continues to be a highly accomplished face of the WNBA’s next generation and is hitting season highs in her first season with the Liberty. Her 23.3 ppg currently eclipses her previously high by two points, her 9.2 rpg near her career high of 9.6 in 2021 and her 3.8 apg is a career high over her 2020 MVP season.

The ding on Stewart, who sustained an Achilles injury that kept her out of the 2019 season, is she’s surrounded by All-WNBA-level talent on the Liberty super-team. But in some ways that also might help her candidacy that she’s able to hit the numbers she has with so much talent around her and a team that collectively dishes the ball around more than any other.

The seventh-year veteran has also been the steadying force for a team that came together less than six months ago. She has yet to score in single-digits and even when she was 1-of-14 against the Dream in June, she made 12 free-throw attempts and hit 11 of them. In 12 games, she’s hit 50% or more of her shots, and in eight of those games she hit at least half of her 3-point attempts. She has the advantage of being arguably the most important puzzle piece to her team in comparison to Wilson’s candidacy.

Alyssa Thomas

Connecticut Sun (21-9, third, 6 GB)
MPG: 36.6 (second) — behind Arike Ogunbowale (37.0)
PPG: 15.3 (19th)
Shooting: 46.1% (43rd) / — / 70.3% (74th)
RPG: 10.1 (first)
APG: 8.1 (first)
SPG: 1.9 (third) — behind Brittney Sykes (2.2) and Jordin Canada (2.0)
BPG: 0.6 (28th)
EFF: 24.4 (third)
Win shares: 6.8 (fourth)

Season accolades: Broke WNBA record for triple-doubles in a season that previously stood at three (Candace Parker and Sabrina Ionescu). She has five this season and nine overall. On two different occasions, she notched back-to-back triple-doubles including her most recent on Aug. 1 against the Minnesota Lynx. She finished with 21 points, 20 rebounds, 12 assists and three steals, becoming the first 20-20-10 triple-double scorer. It was also the quickest of any triple-double when she hit it with 1:32 left in the third quarter; she has the top three spots on the list.

MVP analysis: No one in history has performed to the level Thomas, 31, is currently at for a Sun squad that is still contending despite losing All-Star center Brionna Jones to injury early in the season. If the stat line holds, Thomas would become the only player in WNBA history to average at least 10 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists over a full season. Only five players have averaged a point-rebound double-double with at least two assists per game.

Not many players in history have impacted so many statistical aspects of a game as Thomas is doing right now. No player has averaged even 7-7-7 over a season. Parker (19.3 ppg, 10 rpg, 6.3 apg in 2015) and Ionescu (17.3 ppg, 7 rpg, 6.3 apg in 2022) are the only other players to average 6-6-6 over a season. And only six different players have hit 5-5-5.

It’s her first full season back after rupturing her Achilles while playing overseas in January 2021. She returned to play a few games of the 2022 regular season and help the Sun reach the WNBA Finals, where they lost in four games to Wilson and the Aces. It would be remiss not to also mention, once again, that Thomas is playing with two torn labrums that she is waiting to have surgery on until after her WNBA career.

Thomas is more of a long shot for the award compared to her competition simply because of historical tendencies. The MVP vote has historically leaned toward high scorers. Only one player has won the award without averaging at least 17.5 points per game and it was Tamika Catchings (15.5 ppg, ranking 11th) in 2011. Though assists are often compared for players when it’s a close call, that part of the game is often ignored. Three MVPs averaged more than four assists per game, and Cynthia Cooper dished the most of any MVP with 4.7 in the WNBA’s inaugural season. In Parker’s do-it-all season in 2015, she finished fifth in MVP voting. Elena Delle Donne won it, averaging 23.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.1 steals and 2.0 blocks for the Chicago Sky.

Thomas also has the disadvantage of being on the third-best team in the standings, while Wilson and Stewart are on the best and second-best teams, respectively. Only once since 2016, when the league went to an overall postseason seeding system, has a player not on the No. 1 team been named MVP. Nneka Ogwumike won it in 2016 when the Los Angeles Sparks were No. 2 behind the Minnesota Lynx.

A’ja Wilson

Las Vegas Aces (27-3, first) — clinched playoff spot
MPG: 32.0 (25th)
PPG: 21.2 (fourth)
Shooting: 53.7% (12th) / 5-of-23 (N/A) / 79% (45th)
RPG: 9.6 (second)
APG: 2.0 (45th)
SPG: 1.4 (10th)
BPG: 2.2 (first)
EFF: 26.8 (second)
Win shares: 8.8 (second)

Season accolades: Scored a career-high 40 against the Mystics this month and did it without any 3-pointers.

MVP analysis: Wilson, 27, is the best player on the best team in the league. Though most of the Aces’ roster struggled in their blowout loss to the Liberty last week, it’s notable that Wilson had one of the worst games of her career in such a contest going 2-of-14 for nine points, the majority of which came at the free-throw line. In the June loss to Connecticut, she had a season-low two rebounds. And in the team’s loss to Dallas, she neared season lows in multiple categories including turnovers, field-goal percentage and rebounds.

Her 28 points per 40 possessions ranks first overall, and is four points more than any teammate, and her efforts on the defensive end can’t be overstated with a 90.3 defensive rating that also ranks first. Recency bias is also a thing and Wilson is the reigning MVP who hasn't dropped down from that level of play in her sixth season.

Wilson will have the disadvantage of being on a star-studded team of performers, and for a second consecutive season an Aces teammate is also in the MVP conversation. Last season, it was Kelsey Plum. This year, it’s Jackie Young, the reigning Most Improved Player. What also won’t help is that while Stewart is also surrounded by All-WNBA-level talent, she has had to perform to the highest level to help the Liberty to No. 2 in the standings. It could even be argued Stewart’s dazzling, historic performances have bailed New York out on numerous occasions.

Other candidates having great seasons, but trailing the three favorites:

Jewell Loyd (Storm): Her league-best 24.1 ppg is rivaling Diana Taurasi’s record of 25.2 ppg in 2006. She adds 4.6 rpg, 3.4 apg and 1.1 spg. She’s doing most of it from 3. Her 37.8 FG% is in the middle third, but her 37.9 3FG% ranks 24th and her 88.3 FT% on a league-best 6.2 makes per game is 11th.

Jackie Young (Aces): Young is averaging a career-high 18.3 ppg and hitting buckets at a scorching 53.8% (ranking 11th), an incredible feat for a guard. Her 47.4% clip from 3-point range is first in the league and she could reach a 50/50/90 season. Her free-throw percentage is currently 83.3%.

Napheesa Collier (Lynx): Collier has carried the Lynx back into the playoffs after another of their poor early-season starts. Her 21.4 ppg ranks third and is the best of her career. She adds on average 7.9 rebounds (14th), 2.4 assists, 1.5 steals (ninth) and one block (15th).