With or without Pete Alonso: How Mets can follow Braves' model to become winners again

ATLANTA — A season ago, only one win separated the Mets and Braves inside the National League East. That was the tiebreaker earned by the Braves in their sweep of the teams' final series in 2022.

Now, fast-forward to the final meeting of the two teams in the 2023 season, and the Braves are the talk of baseball, while the Mets' June nose-dive led to a change in the front office's approach.

"I think right now anybody would trade places to be winning the division or tied for the division or whatever, that’s where we would have rather been," Mets general manager Billy Eppler said at the deadline, "but these are our circumstances, and so if we can expedite that and enhance the farm system top to bottom, I think we had to look at that."

The Braves, who lead Major League Baseball with a 82-44 record, figure to be contending for World Series crowns for the next several years with a $204 million payroll that ranks 10th in the league. With a 7-0 loss on Wednesday night, the Mets finished the season with a 3-10 record against their southernmost rivals this season.

"They’re a 100-win team. We saw last year that we were a 100-win team and this year we’re not," Francisco Lindor said. "Things can change very quick. With that being said, we’re nowhere near a 100-win team this year. We’ve got a lot of work to do. A lot of looking ourselves in the mirror and try to be better and continue to play the game the right way."

As the Mets front office looks forward, the Braves' model is one that they can aspire to emulate after their attempt at building a champion with a record $366 million payroll fell flat.

Here is what the Mets can learn from how the Braves, who won the 2021 World Series and became the favorites in 2023, built a frontrunner:

Position players

The Mets will largely have their core intact for the next several seasons, with Brandon Nimmo likely to spend his entire career in New York after signing an eight-year deal in the offseason. Francisco Lindor is locked down through 2031 as well. Jeff McNeil will be 33 years old when the Mets can make a decision on his club option for 2027.

The biggest question is will Pete Alonso be with the Mets long-term as well?

"(Pete) is such a strong player for this organization and he means so much to the community and just our identity," Eppler said. "Between him and Francisco and Brandon, these are guys that we rely on and they’re tremendous players, great people, great teammates and what comes beyond that, that will be a discussion that we hold behind closed doors."

One of the Braves' largest investments is power-hitting first baseman Matt Olson, who signed a Braves record eight-year, $168 million contract one day after being acquired from the Athletics for four contracts. Olson, 29, is now leads Major League Baseball with 108 RBI and behind only the Angels' Shohei Ohtani for the league home run lead with 43 long balls.

Alonso will be 30 when he becomes a free agent but he's one of the preeminent power threats in baseball, on the precipice of notching his third 40-home run seasons in five seasons.

The Braves used their prospect capital to nab Olson and then catcher Sean Murphy from the Athletics last December. Now that the Mets bolstered their system at this season's trade deadline, with seven deals including the trades of Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, could they do something similar?

Much like Francisco Alvarez, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies were acquired as international prospects out of Venezuela and Curacao. The Braves got a bargain when they bet on Acuna's potential with an eight-year, $100 million contract in 2019.

According to MLB Pipeline, the Mets have five Top 100 prospects: Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuna, Jett Williams, Ronny Mauricio and Kevin Parada. If one of them emerges quickly, the Mets could make a hearty investment on their potential.

Part of the Braves' success has been the production of their homegrown players and prospects and locking them up before they reach their peak. Two-time All-Star Austin Riley was the 41st overall pick in the 2015 MLB Draft. The 26-year-old third baseman, who has 29 home runs, 77 RBI and 89 runs this season, signed a 10-year, $212 million deal in the offseason, matching the AAV of Olson. Reigning NL Rookie of the Year Micahel Harris II was a third-round pick in 2019 and the Braves locked him up on a eight-year, $72 million deal midway through 2022.

The Braves supplemented their big-names and homegrown stars by adding veteran outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario, who have each provided more than 20 home runs this season. The Mets will also be in the market for a corner outfielder this season.

Starting pitching

The Mets' front office tried twice with the two-ace model in both 2022 and 2023, and so far it has only led them to one win inside the MLB Playoffs.

The Braves have had immense success in drafting front-end starters over the last few seasons. Spencer Strider, who finished second to Harris in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season, was a fourth round pick in 2020. The 24-year-old out of Clemson University, who was drafted in the 35th round by Cleveland in 2017, now leads the league with 224 strikeouts and 14 wins, while posting a 14-4 record, 3.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP this season.

Strider signed a six-year, $75 million deal after the Braves' 101-win season.

Bryce Elder was also selected by the Braves in that 2020 draft in the fifth around out of University of Texas. Elder is still in pre-arbitration and earning the minimum $720,000 while notching a 10-4 record with a 3.39 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Former first round pick Max Fried was acquired from the Padres in a deal that sent out Justin Upton.

The Braves have twice signed veteran right-hander Charlie Morton to short-term deals.

Future: What Mets owner Steve Cohen thinks about the sell-off, 2024 season & Pete Alonso's future

The only Mets starting pitcher that will remain for the next several season is 30-year-old Kodai Senga, who will have four more years on his deal after this season. Jose Quintana will be around for one more year.

The Mets have spent numerous high draft picks on starting pitching over the last few seasons. Blade Tidwell is rising up the ranks after being drafted in the second round in 2022. The Mets are working on converting 2022 fifth-round pick Christian Scott from a reliever into a starter. They have twice selected Florida right-hander Brandon Sproat over the last two drafts, and Mike Vasil, a former eighth-round pick is now the most highly-regarded arm in the Mets system.

Cohen and Eppler are bound to invest in the starting rotation this offseason, but if one or more of these prospects were to pan out, that would set the team up much better for the future.

Relievers

One of the biggest areas where the Mets fell flat in 2023 was their bullpen after they lost Edwin Diaz with a torn patellar tendon at the World Baseball Classic.

The Mets bullpen is 21st in baseball in ERA, while the Braves are second.

It is one area where the Braves have invested money, including bringing over Raisel Iglesias and his $65 million deal in a trade with the Angles last season. When the Braves lost Kenley Jansen, they made Iglesias their closer.

They added Pierce Johnson and Brad Hand ahead of the deadline. Veterans Collin McHugh and Kirby Yates were both added on two-year deals with club options.

The Mets are likely to have their back end of their bullpen squared away headed into next season with a team-friendly option on Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino likely to exercise his player option. They also have an ability to retain some other value arms in Drew Smith, Sam Coonrod and Trevor Gott in arbitration.

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Mets roster ideas to emulate Braves amid Pete Alonso trade rumors