The Wisconsin football program enters 2024 needing a bounce-back campaign in a bad way.
The Badgers’ 7-6 2023 season fell far short of expectations, but especially so when one considers the losses were to teams including Northwestern, Indiana, Washington State and Iowa. Now, the team looks a bit different entering 2024 and a daunting schedule awaits.
An 8-4 season at minimum is necessary for the Luke Fickell era to gain positive momentum entering 2025. The schedule should be considered in the evaluation, but it shouldn’t be the end-all when this is what the new era of the Big Ten will look like. It’s on Fickell and Wisconsin’s leadership to adapt to the changes and carve out a successful place in the pecking order.
One important variable entering any football season — but especially this one for the Badgers — is returning production. ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks every FBS team in the metric throughout the offseason, including this week after the initial transfer portal cycle concluded. The new era of college football makes it challenging to draw direct a correlation between returning production percentage and wins on the field, but it’s easy to conclude that returning starters are a good thing for teams looking to contend.
Yes, there are necessary disclaimers that a program would rather return ‘good’ production (in other words, not Iowa’s offense). So each example is a case-by-case basis, depending on whether the eventual replacement is better than the production that was lost. But that’s extremely complicated and misses the entire point, which is: that higher returning production is generally a good thing for top programs.
Wisconsin, despite all of the transfer talent, is almost at the top of the Big Ten:
Washington Huskies
Washington Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) lines up the offense for a snap against Texas during the Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome, Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022 in San Antonio. Aem Tx Vs Wu Alamo Bowl 9
Returning Production: 36% (No. 130 overall)
Offensive: 19% (No. 134)
Defensive: 52% (No. 92)
Michigan Wolverines
Nov 11, 2023; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive line coach Sherrone Moore reacts while being interviewed with running back Blake Corum (2) following a game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Michigan won 24-15. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 36% (No. 128 overall)
Offensive: 24% (No. 132)
Defensive: 47% (No. 109)
Maryland Terrapins
Oct 28, 2023; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Maryland Terrapins head coach Mike Locksley (center) on the sidelines during the second half at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 45% (No. 110 overall)
Offensive: 40% (No. 117)
Defensive: 51% (No. 100)
USC Trojans
Oct 28, 2023; Berkeley, California, USA; USC Trojans linebacker Tackett Curtis (25) celebrates with long snapper Jac Casasante (39) after recovering a fumble against the California Golden Bears during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 50% (No. 99 overall)
Offensive: 51% (No. 96)
Defensive: 49% (No. 102)
Purdue Boilermakers
Oct 28, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Purdue Pete celebrates after a touchdown by the Purdue Boilermakers against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 51% (No. 96 overall)
Offensive: 56% (No. 82)
Defensive: 46% (No. 110)
UCLA Bruins
Nov 27, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet (24) runs into the end zone for a two point conversion against the California Golden Bears in the second half at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 51% (No. 95 overall)
Offensive: 51% (No. 97)
Defensive: 51% (No. 97)
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana’s Josh Sanguinetti (19) and Kobee Minor (5) celebrate a turnover during the second half of the Indiana versus Wisconsin football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023.
Returning Production: 56% (No. 85 overall)
Offensive: 59% (No. 74)
Defensive: 53% (No. 87)
Michigan State Spartans
Oct 15, 2022; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans wide receiver Jayden Reed (1) catches a touchdown pass in spite of Wisconsin Badgers cornerback Ricardo Hallman (2) in a second overtime period to win the game, 34-28, at Spartan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 61% (No. 73 overall)
Offensive: 48% (No. 103)
Defensive: 74% (No. 16)
Ohio State Buckeyes
MADISON, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 28: Ryan Day head coach of the Ohio State Buckeyes reacts to a penalty during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Returning Production: 61% (No. 70 overall)
Offensive: 61% (No. 66)
Defensive: 61% (No. 60)
Illinois Fighting Illini
CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 21: Head coach Bret Bielema of the Illinois Fighting Illini protests a call during the second half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Memorial Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
Returning Production: 62% (No. 65 overall)
Offensive: 58% (No. 75)
Defensive: 65% (No. 43)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Oct 14, 2023; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz looks on during warmups prior to the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 69% (No. 30 overall)
Offensive: 80% (No. 12)
Defensive: 58% (No. 65)
Oregon Ducks
Sep 30, 2023; Stanford, California, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning walks on the field before the game against the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 69% (No. 28 overall)
Offensive: 68% (No. 45)
Defensive: 70% (No. 27)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State head football coach James Franklin yells from the sideline during the second half of an NCAA football game against Michigan at Beaver Stadium Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, in State College, Pa.
Returning Production: 70% (No. 23 overall)
Offensive: 74% (No. 28)
Defensive: 66% (No. 37)
Wisconsin Badgers
MADISON, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 18: Luke Fickell head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers claps after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Camp Randall Stadium on November 18, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Returning Production: 71% (No. 20 overall)
Offensive: 70% (No. 37)
Defensive: 71% (No. 25)
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Oct 21, 2023; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck watches a replay against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 71% (No. 19 overall)
Offensive: 68% (No. 44)
Defensive: 74% (No. 17)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Sep 3, 2023; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 74% (No. 8 overall)
Offensive: 69% (No. 42)
Defensive: 79% (No. 6)
Northwestern Wildcats
Nov 4, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun looks on during the first half against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Returning Production: 76% (No. 6 overall)
Offensive: 64% (No. 53)
Defensive: 88% (No. 1)
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nov 11, 2023; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Matt Rhule during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports
Matt Harmon is back from vacation and feeling refreshed. In his return to the pod, he asks which players need a fantasy refresh in 2024. Andy Behrens joins Harmon on the pod as they try to identify 10 candidates that need a fantasy reputation reboot this upcoming season.
We continue our 'Data & trends that will define 2024 season' series on the pod by looking at how the run game is making a big comeback in ways that you wouldn't think. There is no better topic, we thought, for Nate Tice to make his pod debut as a full time Yahoo member. Tice joins Matt Harmon to look at how teams are weaponizing their run game and which teams could have great rushing attacks in 2024.
