Why Ohio State women can, can't reach Final Four in 2024 March Madness predictions
After being eliminated from the Big Ten Tournament in the quarterfinals despite being the top-seeded team, it is now all about how Ohio State responds in the NCAA Tournament.
In 2023, when the Buckeyes were defeated by Iowa by almost 30 points in the Big Ten Tournament final, they responded by making it to the Elite Eight for the first time in 30 years.
While Ohio State had a very different experience in the conference tournament this year, this season still represents the chance to come back from a rough loss. The question is, will it?
Here are two reasons why Ohio State, the No. 2 seed in the Portland 3 region, can make it to the Final Four and two reasons it can't.
Can: Experience
Throughout the season, Ohio State coach Kevin McGuff has stuck with the starting lineup of Taylor Thierry, Jacy Sheldon, Celeste Taylor, Rebeka Mikulasikova and Cotie McMahon. There was only one game that wasn't the case, and that was due to Mikulasikova being out with illness.
Four of the five starters reached the Elite Eight with Ohio State last year, where the Buckeyes fell against Virginia Tech. Taylor, who transferred to the program during the 2023 offseason, also knows what it's like to play in a Regional Final, having made it there in 2021 during her time with Texas.
There is only so far experience can take a team, but Ohio State has proven they have the ability to beat top-five teams such as Iowa this season. So mixing talent with that experience of going far in the tournament gives the Buckeyes an edge.
Can't: Rebounding
The Buckeyes likely won't make it to the Final Four being outrebounded by 20 as they were against Maryland in their loss during the Big Ten Tournament.
Crashing the glass has been one of Ohio State's biggest struggles this season, and while the team has managed to pull out victories while being on the wrong end of the rebounding battle, it will be hard to do that against some of the top teams in the nation.
In the Portland 3 region, every one of the top six seeds outside of Ohio State is averaging at least 38 rebounds per game. The Buckeyes' 34.1 is more aligned with the bottom half of the field.
Already playing the No. 1 seed Southern California, Ohio State knows what it is like to be outrebounded by 15 boards and lose to the Trojans.
If the Buckeyes want to win a region that includes Virginia Tech, Baylor and Syracuse, which are all among the top-50 rebounding teams in the nation, their commitment to grabbing boards has to look more like it did during their victory over Iowa back in January rather than it did in the Big Ten Tournament.
Can: All-around scoring
Every Ohio State starter aside from Mikulasikova is averaging more than 10 points per game, and Mikulasikova's average is 9.5. The Buckeyes were also the only team in the Big Ten to have every player in the starting lineup earn an end-of-season honor.
The consistency of Ohio State's starting lineup will be one of the keys during tournament play, and if the five can play like they did during the team's 15-game winning streak, the Buckeyes will be hard to beat.
Can't: Juju Watkins
In Juju Watkin's first collegiate game, she scored 32 points against Ohio State and led USC to an 83-74 victory.
The freshman has been one of the best players in the country this season, averaging 27 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.4 steals.
Watkins' abilities have propelled the Trojans to a No. 1 seed, but even when she isn't having her best game, she has capable teammates in McKenzie Forbes and Rayah Marshall. Ohio State knows how impactful Marshall in particular can be. The junior recorded 18 points and 17 rebounds in that season-opening matchup.
If the Buckeyes miss the Final Four, it wouldn't be surprising if it's because of the No. 1 seed in their region.
Prediction
The Buckeyes responded to a rough stretch this season by rattling off 15 straight wins, and they are familiar with the other top four teams in the region. As long as the starting lineup does not repeat its performance against the Terrapins, Ohio State will make it to the Final Four for the first time since 1993.
This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State women in Final Four? Prediction for 2024 March Madness
