Why Kenny Clark’s new deal probably has nothing to do with Aaron Rodgers’ future
The structure of Kenny Clark’s new deal with the Green Bay Packers makes for an easy connection to a certain future Hall of Fame quarterback with an uncertain future. With cap hits ballooning over $20 million each year starting in 2022, could Clark’s uniquely-structured deal mean the Packers are preparing to dump quarterback Aaron Rodgers – and his nearly $40 million cap hit in 2022 – in two years?
The Packers will have that option if they need it following the 2021 season. And it’s certainly possible – maybe even probable – that the Jordan Love era will begin in 2022.
But the two things – Clark’s deal and Rodgers’ future – probably aren’t tied together.
Ken Ingalls, a CPA who tracks the Packers salary cap, provided a few simple but smart thoughts on why Clark’s deal looks the way it does.
For starters, the Packers aren’t necessarily thinking about 2022 with this deal. The structuring was all about preparing for 2021, when the league’s salary cap is likely to plummet, possibly even to as low as $175 million. The Packers kept Clark’s cap hit low in 2021 to provide some financial relief, especially as GM Brian Gutekunst continues sorting through his other soon-to-be free agents.
This deal was structured around the 2021 problem. And Clark aided the effort by taking a big signing bonus ($25 million, which can be prorated on the cap over five years) and agreeing to just $2.1 million in cash flow in 2021.
From Ingalls: “They did these terms because the player, agent, and team all know the 2021 cap will drop and they needed to work around this obstacle.”
So how does a $70 million extension make up for relatively small cap hits in the first two years? With big cap hits in the final three.
Clark’s cap hits over the first two years: $6.69 million in 2020, $7.1 million in 2021.
Clark’s cap hits over the final three years: $20.65 million in 2022, $21.25 million in 2023 and $22 million in 2024.
Once again, Ingalls has a simple explanation: “Clark got a 5 year deal and kept his 2021 cap super low in a down cap year. So money is high in years 3-5. Simple math.”
The Packers are simply shifting cap stress away from 2021, with a big chunk of money spread out over the final three years. In a normally structured deal, the spread of cap hits would be more evenly dispersed. But the Packers didn’t really have that option here.
Rodgers’ deal is and should be a factor in everything the Packers do from a salary cap standpoint, and there’s little doubt that 2022 – when his cap hit jumps to $39.8 million and the Packers can save $22.6 million by parting ways – is a potential fulcrum point for his future.
It’s possible the Packers worried little about Clark’s cap hits bulging in 2022 due to his age (still only 24), performance (first-time Pro Bowler in 2019) and the financial options available for creating necessary cap space, beginning with Rodgers. And if the world self-corrects and the coronavirus pandemic finally gets put in the rear-view mirror, there’s a good chance the 2022 cap will explode as revenues return and new TV money pours in.
It’s clear the Packers had to get creative with structuring Clark’s $70 million deal around what will be a highly difficult 2021 season. Rodgers’ future in Green Bay probably didn’t drive the backloading of Clark’s deal. It was a shrinking cap in 2021 and all the challenges that will go along with it, especially for the Packers.
