Why four favorites in the ACC basketball title chase will – and won’t – win a championship

It’s time for the three-month grind toward a conference championship.

With marquee nonconference games in the rearview mirror, the ACC’s college basketball teams begin the race for a league title in January and cross the finish line in the second week of March.

As the calendar flips to 2024, the usual suspects are on track to be among the ACC’s best. UNC, Duke, Clemson and Virginia each picked up big nonconference wins and appear to be in the top tier of the league.

Here’s a look at each of those four teams, along with reasons why they will – and won’t – win a conference championship this season.

RJ Davis, UNC basketball’s offense elite

RJ Davis has been the best guard in the ACC entering 2024. The senior guard averaged 21.7 points in the first 11 games, including a seven-game stretch with 183 points. That production put him in Tyler Hansbrough territory. After averaging 75.3 points in the last four seasons, UNC’s offense is in the mid-80s entering league play this time around. The Tar Heels have advanced to the Final Four – including the 2017 national title – in two of the last four seasons they averaged more than 80 points.

UNC'S BIG WIN VS. OKLAHOMA: UNC basketball’s unsung hero in Tar Heels’ defensive showcase vs. Oklahoma

BLUE DEVILS END DROUGHT: 754 days: How Duke basketball ended its top-10 drought against Baylor

UNC basketball has to improve rebounding, get more from Armando Bacot

The Tar Heels made strides defensively in their win against Oklahoma, but rebounding has been a consistent area of concern in UNC’s biggest games. In losses to UConn and Kentucky, UNC was outrebounded by 10 or more in consecutive games for the first time since the 2003 NIT. According to KenPom.com, the Tar Heels are in the 100s of rebounding percentage for the first time since Matt Doherty’s final two seasons in 2002-03. Armando Bacot averaged only 7.0 rebounds against Oklahoma and Kentucky. Bacot has to set the tone as a double-double machine if UNC is going to win a championship.

Jeremy Roach sets tone for Duke basketball’s offense

With Tyrese Proctor injured, the Blue Devils lost back-to-back games and started 0-1 in ACC play. Senior captain Jeremy Roach steadied the ship with his consistent play for an offense that continues to share the ball at an amazing rate. Averaging a team-high 33.9 minutes, Roach had 36 assists and 11 turnovers in Duke’s first 11 games. Duke had 20 or more assists in three of those games. After logging 13 games with 20 or more assists in 2021-22, the Blue Devils had only three such games last season. If Duke can challenge the numbers put up by the 2021-22 squad, these Devils can follow the same path to the Final Four.

The Blue Devils have to get better behind Kyle Filipowski

It doesn’t take a genius to see that Duke is at its best with 7-footer Kyle Filipowski on the court. But if the Blue Devils are going to reach their potential as a championship team, they have to get more from Filipowski’s teammates in the frontcourt. That puts Mark Mitchell, Ryan Young and Sean Stewart in the spotlight when Filipowski is struggling or on the bench. Young, a captain, stepped up in wins vs. Michigan State and Baylor. Shooting struggles aside, Mitchell has to improve his rebounding numbers and continue to get to the free-throw line. Stewart’s playing time has waned, but there will come a time when he’s called upon in conference play. Duke has the guards to get it done. If the Devils can get more consistent around Flip in the post, watch out.

Virginia’s defense, history can’t be ignored

Virginia was picked to finish fourth in the ACC preseason poll. In 13 of the last 15 seasons, the Cavaliers have finished at or higher than their predicted finish. After sharing the regular-season title with Miami last season, Tony Bennett’s squad is a contender once again because of defense. The Hoos are on pace to produce a top-five defense for the first time since 2020.

Virginia's offense can't just be Reece Beekman

Virginia’s defense is back on track this season, but the offense has gotten considerably worse with a young group around senior guard Reece Beekman, one of the top two-way players in the nation. The Cavaliers are in the 100s in offensive efficiency for just the second time in the last 10 seasons. Virginia needs its youngsters to grow up fast on that end of the court if the Hoos are going to repeat as league champs.

PJ Hall, Clemson’s experience give Tigers a chance

Following nonconference play, Clemson and Duke are the only teams in the ACC in the top 30 of offensive and defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. The Tigers are 25th in Division I experience, trailing only UNC and NC State in the ACC. PJ Hall, one of the favorites to win ACC Player of the Year, is the top Tiger. Hall averaged 20.2 points and 7.1 rebounds in the first 10 games to help Clemson get off to its best start since the 2008-09 season. Clemson’s balance on both ends – and the star power of Hall – gives it a chance to win a conference title.

Clemson had strong start last year but faltered late

Clemson broke a program record with 14 ACC wins last season, but a fast start fizzled out in the latter stages as the Tigers lost five of their final nine conference games and missed the NCAA Tournament. Head coach Brad Brownell is Clemson’s all-time wins leader, but the Tigers are still in search of their first ACC title since 1990 and first tournament title in program history. The pressure of breaking through can weigh on a team.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Gauging ACC basketball title race among favorites Duke, UNC, UVa, Clemson