Why Elliott, Prescott’s friendship among Cowboys’ multiple contract considerations to come
The Dallas Cowboys better be completely focused on their Week 14 opponents, the Houston Texans. That doesn’t mean that the fanbase can’t multitask.
The last thing Dallas needs is to be upset by the worst team in the league; that would ruin their slim chance at catching division rival Philadelphia for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and frankly would indicate they don’t at all deserve it. But as for everyone else, it’s fine to allow the mind to wander to other important issues. Our focus as fans and media has no impact on the game. So it’s always a good time to take a look at the team’s financial situation as the offseason approaches. Here are a handful of things I’m thinking.
Projected Cap Space and Important free agents
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas has 19 players who are set to hit unrestricted free agency this coming offseason.
The ones that are of most concern play positions that are lesser valued in the league, which is a good thing for the Cowboys. That’s a good thing as Dallas doesn’t have that much projected cap space, which ironically makes all the hemming and hawing over moving on from Cooper and La’el Collins confounding.
Dallas has $6.3 million of space remaining on this year’s cap they’ll be able to rollover (depending on how the Odell Beckham situation goes). Over The Cap projects Dallas to be slightly over the projected $225 million 2023 cap based on current contracts and the projected rookie class.
They needed the space they saved by jettisoning Cooper and look, best offense in the league over the last seven weeks.
Anyways, Dallas has major decisions to make on the following three players:
RB Tony Pollard
Safety Donovan Wilson
Tight end Dalton Schultz
Schultz seems like a no brainer to allow to walk. His production is high but it’s a function of the offense more than his elite skill and they seem to have potential TE1 in Jake Ferguson and TE2 in Peyton Hendershot. Those two might even end up flipping order the same way Schultz and Blake Jarwin did.
Beyond those three big names, lesser decisions will be needed on the the next tier of the remaining 16, including:
Cornerback Anthony Brown
Quarterback Cooper Rush
Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch
DE Dante Fowler
WR Noah Brown
Elliott's contract
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
There’s been a ton of ink spilled over Ezekiel Elliott’s contract ever since he signed the extension in 2019. Elliott saw that he was being run into the ground and before it had an adverse affect on his productivity, leveraged his importance to the team into the richest (at the time) RB contract in NFL history.
Elliott, at the time, was the face of the franchise, not the Dallas quarterback who struggled mightily during the first half of the previous season (for good reason, he had no weapons). Now things have changed. Elliott shares the backfield with Tony Pollard, and while most of Cowboys Nation understands how well both compliment each other (like the fact Elliott lead’s the NFL in 3rd/4th down and 1 conversion rate and Pollard leads the league in yards per carry), there’s still a discussion to be had.
Elliott has a huge 2023 cap hit ($16.7 million) and Pollard is a free agent.
I’ve already gone to great length to identify what I feel is the best path forward.
A restructure for Elliott saves them more money than a release, and new deal for Pollard should put both around $7 million a year. Read more on that here.
Not everyone is on board with this plan, of course. Some want to only keep Pollard, some want Dallas to invest in neither and just draft replacements. That seems silly for a team where the run game is so integral to the team’s success but besides that, there’s another thing to consider.
Prescott's last contract details
(AP Photo/Rick Osentoski)
An interesting part of the the two-year Dak Prescott negotiation happened right before his long-term agreement was consummated. Prescott was tagged, for a second year, even though the parameters of the agreement had been locked in.
What that did was use up the second of three tags the Cowboys could place on Prescott, a strategic move that influences all future deals between the two sides. The next time Dallas wants to use the tag on Prescott, they’ll need to pay him 144% of his prior year salary. That is in effect regardless of which contract expires. If Prescott signs 4 more contracts, at the end of every one the tag would need to be 144% of the prior year salary.
To further extend their leverage, Prescott’s agent Todd France got a “no-tag” clause written into this current four-year deal. Dallas can’t even tag him in 2025, not even at 144%. And that’s where another piece of leverage comes in.
Elliott's importance to the franchise and Prescott
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Aside from his value to the club on the field, Elliott is well regarded as a member of the Cowboys’ family. Jerry Jones loves his star players and Elliott’s worth to him goes beyond on-field value. Him remaining a part of the organization is likely important to Jones and after making $58 million through his first seven years, if he’s willing to play for a reduced price, there’s likely some sentimental reasons for the Cowboys to choose a still viable Elliott despite what the world thinks about paying running backs.
But there could be another factor, too.
Prescott and Elliott are the best of friends and have been close since they were going through the 2016 draft process together.
By now, you should be able to read between the lines. Would the Cowboys risk jettisoning Prescott’s best friend? When they have absolutely no recourse should Prescott want to leave the organization for whatever reason?
Loyalty is shown in many different ways and it would be bad planning to not consider what releasing Elliott could do when Prescott has all of the leverage and could get the same amount of money anywhere else.
Elliott's a team player
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Not once has Elliott ever been seen to begrudge Pollard’s increase in playing time. Not once has Elliott ever appeared to be a me-first player; he’s always seemed to be the ultimate teammate, genuinely wanting to do whatever it takes for the Cowboys to win and for his friends to be successful.
All this is to say, he’s likely willing to sacrifice salary in order to help the team keep some of their other star players. If the offer is reasonable, with all of these things considered, I feel it’s very likely Elliott is still in a Dallas uniform this year and for more after that.
CeeDee Lamb extension
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Lamb is going to go well past his career highs provided he plays in the remaining five games. He’s established himself as a Top-10 receiver in the league.
There’s some consideration to not paying wideouts, to keep drafting them highly but there’s little doubt Cowboys ownership gave negotiating leverage to Lamb when they insisted he don the 88 jersey. The question is when will the next contract come. He’s eligible after this season, but Dallas can wait two full years after they undoubtedly invoke the fifth-year option this offseason that locks Lamb in through the 2024 season.
The top seven WR salaries make at least $24 million a year on average and a Lamb classmate, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson will almost assuredly top the $30 million high currently set by Tyreek Hill of Miami.
Dallas may want to be ahead of that deal while they can slot Lamb at an inflation level set by guys like AJ Brown ($25 million) and DK Metcalf ($24 million), players who have better stats through their early careers.
Trevon Diggs extension
(Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Unlike Lamb, Diggs was a second-round pick which means Dallas will only have one more year of control following this season. Diggs continues to get better, though his interception totals are expectedly down from 11 in 2021. He’s avoided on a regular basis now and has shut down several top receivers including Jefferson, Terry McLaurin, Ja’Marr Chase and others.
The tag amount for corners in 2024 will likely be between $19 million and $21 million, just as a frame of reference. 2023 isn’t a huge year for free agent corners, but 2024 is going to be a bonanza which could resemble what 2022 looked like for wideout contracts.
Here’s who all could be on the market at the same time:
Diggs
Darius Slay
Shaq Griffin
AJ Terrell
Adoree Jackson
Jeff Okudah
That doesn’t include early extensions possible for players like Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain.
Dallas should heavily consider getting Diggs done early and giving him six years.
The Micah Parsons situation
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Parsons isn’t even eligible for an extension until after 2023, but if Dallas isn’t carving out that space now they’re incompetent.
The question is when do you sign a player who is clearly outperforming his rookie contract at the second-most expensive position in the game? He’s an edge rusher in negotiations, don’t let what the franchise tag assessment would say about him being a linebacker fool you.
Brian Burns will get paid, but Nick Bosa is likely to set the market well above TJ Watt’s $28 million per year in short order. Then Parsons will rewrite it if he waits until after. We’re talking $32 million a year in all likelihood.
Fortunately, the cap will likely see a huge jump in 2024 if it doesn’t in 2023, and there should be extra room on hand to handle Parsons’ deal.
Projecting ahead
Here’s when I think players will be getting new deals, and at what level for their positions:
2023
Tony Pollard (mid-level)
Donovan Wilson (mid-to-upper)
Terence Steele (mid-level)
2024
Dak Prescott (top 2)
Trevon Diggs (franchise tag)
CeeDee Lamb (top 5)
2025
Micah Parsons (No. 1)
Trevon Diggs (top 3)
