Why Bills passing game is struggling and 3 roster questions for showdown against Dolphins

ORCHARD PARK - There has been plenty of talk in the past few weeks about the sharp decline in Stefon Diggs’ production, but he isn’t the only reason for the Buffalo Bills’ recent struggles when throwing the ball.

This has been a multi-layered situation that includes Diggs and the other passing game targets not getting open enough, Josh Allen’s occasional inaccuracy and suspect decision-making, a few pass protection breakdowns, and sloppy play that has resulted in dropped passes or misreads between the quarterback and intended receivers.

In the last eight games, Allen has just one 300-yard performance and that came in the 37-34 overtime loss to the Eagles. More alarming is that three times he was held under 200 yards, he is averaging only 228.8 yards per game, and on his 255 attempts he has just 23 completions of 20 yards or more.

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Before this eight-game stretch, Allen played 58 games dating back to the start of 2020 and he averaged 269.9 yards passing, had 23 games of at least 300 yards, and was held under 200 yards just 10 times.

“I gotta be better, there’s no doubt about that,” Allen admitted Wednesday. “I gotta throw better, gotta find the open guys sooner and give them chances to run after the catch. When you’ve had success as an offense before, especially in the passing game, when it’s not going your way you’re just trying to find all the answers.”

As the Bills head into what is arguably the biggest regular-season game of Allen’s career - given that a victory clinches the AFC East and the No. 2 seed in the playoffs while a loss could knock Buffalo out of the playoffs - the passing game desperately needs to reemerge against the Dolphins.

“I would say overall we need to continue to grow as a team, passing game being one area, just one area,” coach Sean McDermott said.

And within that area, McDermott admitted that the dropped passes have been frustrating. The Bills have 27 per Pro Football Focus which is the fifth-highest total in the league.

“Yeah, fundamentals overall are going to be a big part in winning games or not winning games so it’s a point of emphasis for us week to week, day to day, and it’s going to continue to be,” McDermott said. “We’ve gotta be fundamentally strong in what we’re doing and how we’re doing it.”

Here are three more questions I have as the Bills get ready to face the Dolphins:

1. Should Leonard Fournette replace Latavius Murray?

The 33-year-old Murray has played every game this season, essentially as the No. 2 back behind James Cook, but he’s coming off a poor performance against New England and now might be the time to go with the obviously well-rested, not to mention younger 28-year-old Fournette.

Murray has been on the field for 32% of the Bills’ offensive snaps this season, and the vast majority of those were as the lone back, meaning James Cook - who is the NFL’s third-leading rusher (1,086 yards) and fifth-leading yards from scrimmage producer (1,515 yards) - has been standing on the sideline.

Yes, Cook needs a breather as all backs do. But for him to be at 54% of the snaps just doesn’t seem logical to me. Christian McCaffrey of the 49ers, who leads the NFL in rushing and yards from scrimmage, has played 81% of the snaps.

The Bills have consistently used Murray in short-yardage and goal-line situations, but it’s not like Murray has been great in that role. On third-down plays where the Bills need between one and three yards, Murray has carried 19 times for 33 yards (1.73 per attempt) and has achieved 11 first downs, a success rate of a ho-hum 57.9%.

On plays inside the opponents’ 10-yard line, Murray has carried 17 times and gained only 31 yards (1.82) and has four touchdowns. Again, it’s not great.

As a pass protector, no doubt he’s better than Cook, but again, it’s not like Murray’s a true stud. Among the 70 running backs who have pass blocked on at least 100 snaps this season, Pro Football Focus has Murray’s pass-blocking efficiency rating at 52nd-best. That metric is defined as measuring pressure allowed on a per-snap basis with weighting toward sacks allowed.

Having failed last week against the Patriots on a key third-and-1 run, and dropping a pass on third down, each play costing the Bills a first down, Murray’s time probably should be up. In the one game Fournette played in Los Angeles, he got 10 offensive snaps, carried five times for 20 yards, and was not asked to pass block.

Fournette has never been good in pass protection, but he is far superior to Murray as a pass catcher, meaning he’d be a more viable threat. In 80 career games he has 312 receptions 2,219 yards and seven TDs. In 151 games, Murray has 239 receptions for 1,620 yards and two TDs.

2. Why was Poona Ford inactive for nine games?

When the Bills signed Ford to a one-year free agent contract last May, it felt like a very nice under-the-radar acquisition. Ford had been a four-year starter at defensive tackle for the Seahawks and was a consistently solid run defender, though he did drop off in 2022.

Pairing Ford with DaQuan Jones in a rotation at one-technique seemed ideal, but for whatever reason, McDermott and defensive line coach Eric Washington dry-docked him, even after Jones got hurt in Week 5, and continually went with Tim Settle, Jordan Phillips and eventually, Linval Joseph.

Phillips and Joseph have been ineffective as run defenders, and Settle has only been marginally better. Ford, according to PFF grading, has been better than all three and after sitting out two months, he re-entered the lineup the last two weeks and has performed quite well.

In the victories over the Chargers and Patriots he played 47 combined snaps, been in on two tackles including one sack, and has generated five pressures.

Against the Patriots, the coaches had a choice to make with Jones returning to the lineup - Joseph or Ford as the fourth DT? Ford got the nod, and that should be what the Bills do moving forward.

3. Is Rasul Douglas the most important new player added in 2023?

It’s nip and tuck between the former Green Bay cornerback who Brandon Beane acquired in a trade deadline move, and edge rusher Leonard Floyd who was a stealthy, after-market free agent signing in June, but Douglas - who on Wednesday was named AFC defensive player of the week - is the choice.

Floyd has been outstanding, especially in light of the complete disappearance of Von Miller. He leads the Bills with 10.5 sacks, but he’s actually third in total pressures with 39, trailing Ed Oliver (61) and Greg Rousseau (51) per PFF charting. Also, Floyd is part of a rotation up front and he’s been on the field only 53% of the time.

After being worked into the Bengals game, his first as a Bill, Douglas has been on the field almost 100% of the snaps in the last seven games and he has produced four interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown, two fumble recoveries, fourth other passes defensed, and is allowing a low 52.8 completion percentage into his coverage area.

Nickel corner Taron Johnson acknowledged how important Douglas has been, and how difficult it must have been to learn the Bills’ system on the fly.

“He’s had a huge impact for us,” Johnson said. “I can’t imagine, I have no idea how he did it. I’m sure it’s tough coming into a new system, but just being the player that he is, he’s a smart player, and we’re lucky to have him.”

The Bills needed an upgrade over Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam after the season-ending injury to Tre’Davious White, Beane knew it, and Douglas is probably the best trade deadline acquisition any team made this year.

“He’s just a smart, heads up, situationally aware player, in addition to the exceptional talent and length and all those things,” said assistant head coach Eric Washington. “He just has a real talent, a real feel when it comes to diagnosing passing concepts and doing that within the coverage. He has come in and provided a huge boost for us.”

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills must get Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs on same page against Dolphins