What the Coyotes can learn from the NHL's relocation history

After Tempe voters rejected the Arizona Coyotes' proposed stadium deal on Tuesday, the franchise's future has been cast into doubt.

Nothing is certain at this point, but the most likely scenario appears to be eventual relocation as remaining at Mullett Arena is not a viable long-term option with approximately one quarter the capacity of most NHL venues.

If the Coyotes are going to make a move, they would be wise to take a look at the history of NHL relocations to get a sense of what has worked and what hasn't.

Since 1919 there have been 12 teams that have relocated with six becoming defunct and one merging with another squad.

Because of the immense value of an NHL franchise, even a less appealing one like the Coyotes — and the appeal of a balanced 32-team league — we can throw the defunct squads out the window and rule out a merger. Five of the six times an NHL team was simply discontinued, a World War or the Great Depression was involved.

That leaves us with 12 historical examples of NHL relocation that should help guide what happens with the Coyotes.

Here are a few lessons this team could take on board if it chooses to leave Arizona:

Sometimes running it back is worth considering

Although it's tempting to think that a market's failure to sustain an NHL team is evidence that it shouldn't be considered again, that's not what the history suggests.

The Colorado Rockies lasted just six seasons, but the Colorado Avalanche have been one of the NHL's most successful franchises since their return in 1995-96. The current iteration of the Winnipeg Jets is not a financial powerhouse, placing 27th in Forbes' latest team valuations, but it seems to be a stable club with an entrenched fanbase despite some of its limitations.

Minnesota got an expansion franchise despite the North Stars flaming out, and the Wild don't look like they're going anywhere despite a lack of playoff success.

This premise isn't a blank cheque to try anything that hasn't worked before. Atlanta stands out as a city that's had two cracks at an NHL team without success and the Hartford Whalers don't seem like they're coming back any time soon.

It's important to keep an open mind about places the NHL hasn't stuck before, with Quebec City standing out as a current example.

A 'traditional hockey market' is not a must

While the Coyotes themselves seem like a walking cautionary tale about moving into markets not generally associated with hockey, many of the most recent moves to warm-climate cities have worked out.

Expansion teams in Nashville and Las Vegas have been success stories, the Tampa Bay Lightning are a model franchise and two of the last three moves south have paid off.

The Minnesota North Stars' relocation to Dallas took the team from one of America's hockey hotbeds to the state of Texas, where hockey is far from a priority. Over the last 30 years, the Dallas Stars have won a title, and made the playoffs 18 times. The team currently ranks a solid 18th on Forbes' latest team valuations.

Hartford's move to Carolina was a definite downgrade from a hockey tradition standpoint, but the Hurricanes put out and outstanding on-ice product and their average attendance ranked second in the NHL this season.

Many hockey fans roll their eyes at NHL teams cropping up where they don't intuitively seem to belong, but the results have been solid so far. Salt Lake City and Houston look like solid candidates in this non-traditional mold.

Staying nearby is helpful

This is a lesson that pertains primarily to the NHL's last relocation that brought the Atlanta Thrashers to Winnipeg.

While the league is capable of reorganizing its divisions around a shifting landscape, it opted not to in the case of the new Jets. This caused a situation where a team located near the geographical centre of North America ended up the Southeast Division.

In their first two years of existence, the Jets suffered through a brutal travel schedule. Unsurprisingly, the team produced a .600 points percentage at home, but just .438 on the road. While teams tend to perform significantly better in their own barns, Winnipeg was the NHL's 16th-best home team and its 24th-best road club.

That ended up being a two-year issue, and the NHL isn't going to be interested in unbalanced divisions over the long term. That said, Arizona could avoid some short-term pain if it's able to move to a location that could fit in the Central Division — or at the very least the Western Conference.

Better days are probably on the way

As grim as things may seem for the Coyotes, changing addresses is likely to bring the franchise better fortunes.

That's mostly due to simple regression to the mean. None of the six teams that have moved since 1982 had a franchise winning percentage better than .459, which isn't a high bar to clear. Teams that don't succeed on the ice are far more likely to fail to draw fans and wind up in financial peril.

The Coyotes have made the playoffs once since 2011-12, winning more than half of their regular-season games three times since they arrived in 1996-97. It would take plenty of bad luck for the franchise's results to continue to be so poor.

Based on the current roster it's hard to envision a quick route to playoff success or championships, but any move will probably look like a good move in the years to come.