Way Too Early: Players to Target in 2024

The dust has barely settled on the 2023 season, but like any fantasy-obsessed degenerate, I am already setting my sights on next season.

While free agency and the 2024 NFL Draft will undoubtedly alter the landscape of the league, this season gave us plenty to consider as we head into the offseason. The decisions handed down by some teams on Black Monday — like the dismissal of one mediocre mustached coach whose hubris finally grew stale with ownership — have already got fantasy managers thinking about what 2024 could mean for his former team's top players.

A lot will change between now and next September, but it's hard not to get excited about some of the performances we saw this season. Fantasy managers can start drafting teams shortly after the Super Bowl ends. I'll be one of the many drafting teams before free agency even kicks off in mid-March, so knowing who to target is essential.

This week, I will highlight players I will and won't be targeting in fantasy drafts in 2024 in a two-part series. Below are some players already on my radar heading into next year.

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Quarterbacks

C.J. Stroud (HOU)

I'd like to think I won't be alone when it comes to drafting C.J. Stroud in 2024. The Texans rookie is on the verge of making his first playoff appearance against the Browns and will, in all likelihood, be named the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Stroud was a stud in his first season and still has plenty of room to grow. Despite throwing for 4,108-23-5 in 15 games, finishing as the QB7 in fantasy points per game (22.0) and leading the league in passing yards per game (273.9), Stroud ranked outside of the top 10 in EPA per play (0.124) and success rate per dropback (47.3 percent). He also ranked 28th among 32 quarterbacks in catchable pass rate and 25th in on-target rate. Houston's offense as a whole ranked 24th in offensive success rate (41.4 percent) and 17th in red zone touchdown rate (53.7 percent).

There's a lot of room for improvement for a player and offense that turned in an impressive 2023 campaign.

Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is already being eyed for head coaching vacancies, but if PFF Bobby returns to Houston in 2024, the sky could truly be the limit for Stroud and the Texans.

Stroud will probably see an ADP outside the top eight at his position but will be a sleeper candidate to finish as the overall QB1 next season. His 22.0 fantasy points per game as a rookie are second only to Justin Herbert amongst rookie quarterbacks since 2014. At the risk of stating the obvious, Stroud is a bona fide fantasy stud in the making.

Anthony Richardson (IND)

A season-end shoulder injury in Week 5 derailed what would have been a dynamite rookie season for Anthony Richardson. The No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft threw for 577-3-1 and rushed for another 136-4 in portions of four games but proved to be a little too reckless with his body in his rookie year.

Richardson was pacing to be an absolute smash in fantasy. In the two full games he played, Richardson averaged an absurd 27.4 fantasy points per game and led all starters in fantasy points per dropback (0.80). Josh Allen was second in fantasy points per dropback at 63.9. For some additional perspective, during Lamar Jackson's 2019 MVP season, his 0.97 points per dropback led all starters that season by a wide margin.

Simply put, Richardson was on pace to string together a fantasy season not often seen at the quarterback position.

Admittedly, Richardson was probably running too hot for his success to be sustained over an entire season, but even with some expected regression, we could have been looking at something special from the dual-threat signal-caller.

Fantasy managers who were snake-bitten by Richardson's injury-plagued 2023 will be hesitant to re-commit to him in 2024. His injury, coupled with the incorrect belief that running quarterbacks are more often injured than their lead-footed comrades, will keep his ADP lower than it should be in some leagues. I'll be targeting Richardson in any draft rooms where he appears to be undervalued, and you should consider doing the same.

Running Backs

Tyjae Spears (TEN)

Had he not spent all of 2023 playing second fiddle to Derrick Henry, it's possible Tyjae Spears would have found himself in the running for being a potential league winner. The rookie out of Tulane overcame early offseason reports of him having no ACL in one knee, along with arthritis, to turn in one of the more efficient seasons of any rookie running back this season.

Among 29 qualified rookie running backs (min. 50 touches) since 2021, Spears' 0.91 fantasy points per touch is good for 10th best of the group. Among 49 running backs who saw 100 plus rush attempts in 2023, Spears also ranked 11th in YCO/ATT (3.15) and had the third-highest missed tackles forced rate (26.0 percent) of that group. His 27 missed tackles forced on receiving plays were second only to Breece Hall (31).

Derrick Henry has already bid his farewell to the Titans, putting Spears in a position to see a significant increase in touches next season. Spears will need to overcome a coaching change and a fresh stable of running backs that will be brought in this offseason. Still, his abilities as a runner and receiver should give him plenty of fantasy upside — perhaps at a discount — next season.

Zamir White (LV)

The final month of the season may have significantly altered the fantasy outlook for a handful of running backs in 2024. Zamir White may be leading the pack in these regards.

After losing Josh Jacobs to a quad injury in Week 14 against the Vikings, the Raiders leaned on White as their bell cow and were handsomely rewarded.

From Weeks 15 through 18, White tied with Najee Harris for a league-high 84 rush attempts and finished with the third-most running yards of any back in the league (397). Among running backs with at least 50 carries over that span, White ranked fourth in explosive run rate (6.0 percent), fifth in YCO/ATT (3.43), and ninth in yards per carry (4.7).

Keeping in mind that White and Jacobs essentially played in the same offense this season, here is a look at their efficiency numbers while serving as the Raiders' primary ball carrier.

Some high-level efficiency in the passing game worked in favor of Jacobs regarding PPR per touch, but there's no denying White was the far more efficient runner during his four-week stretch as RB1. Neither back was particularly effective when it came to forcing missed tackles, but White's YCO/ATT and breakaway run rate are both encouraging things to build on.

Perhaps the most significant factor in all of this is Jacobs' contract — or lack thereof. Jacobs held out for a substantial portion of last offseason in hopes of signing a new deal but ultimately returned on a one-year deal worth little more than the franchise tag he was refusing to play on. He'll likely be a free agent this offseason, while White remains under contract through 2025. Much like the Titan's backfield, the Raiders will need to bring in added talent if Jacobs is no longer on the roster, but White has made a strong case to enter next season as the team's lead back.

Ty Chandler (MIN)

Much like White, Ty Chandler was another back who came on late in the season and made an interesting case for himself in 2024. With Alexander Mattison sidelined in Week 15 against the Bengals, Chandler emerged as the Vikings' lead back, rushing 23 times for 132 yards and one touchdown while catching another three passes for 25 yards.

His strong outing against the Bengals proved enough for head coach Kevin O'Connell to pull the plug on Alexander Mattison, as Mattison saw just a 10 percent opportunity share the rest of the way. Mattison averaged just four rush attempts per game over the final three games, while Chandler totaled 30 carries and averaged a respectable 3.23 YCO/ATT in Weeks 16 through 18.

Mattison struggled in his lone season as the Vikings' RB1, averaging an underwhelming 3.9 YPC while failing to punch in a score on the ground. He did manage three receiving touchdowns, but Mattison provided little reason for the Vikings to open next season with him as the starter. Mattison is under contract through 2024, and it's more practical for the team to keep him rather than cut him, but there's no reason Chandler can't earn more looks next season.

Wide Receivers

Jordan Addison (MIN)

A 42-yard touchdown by Jordan Addison in Week 18 gave him 10 scores on the season and put him amongst elite company. With that score, Addison became one of 16 receivers in NFL history to score 10 or more touchdowns as a rookie. He's one of only five rookie receivers since 2000 to go for 900-plus yards and 10-plus touchdowns.

While Addison will compete with Justin Jefferson for targets for at least the next three seasons, the two had no trouble co-existing in 2023. The RotoViz Game Splits App shows how Addison performed in games with and without Jefferson this season.

An injury to Kirk Cousins in Week 8 undoubtedly limited Addison's upside the rest of the way, but there's no ignoring what we saw from him this season. Assuming Addison takes a second-year leap in 2024 and Cousins re-signs during the offseason, the No. 23 overall pick of last year's draft could sport an ADP similar to what we've seen of Jaylen Waddle, Tee Higgins, and DeVonta Smith in recent years.

George Pickens (PIT)

Mike Tomlin knows the Steelers have a problem at quarterback. How they solve that problem will be anyone's guess. The Steelers went 10-7 this season, made the playoffs, and will pick well outside the range for a franchise quarterback in next year's draft. Of course, a few trades can change this, but I expect the Steelers to address quarterback in the offseason regardless of draft capital.

For all of George Pickens' struggles in 2023, the second-year receiver still managed to go for 1,140 yards and five touchdowns on 63 receptions while averaging an impressive 18.1 YPR. His 1,140 yards are the 10th most of any receiver since 2000 among receivers with fewer than 70 catches in a season.

Looking at how he stacked up to this year's field of qualified receivers (min. 50 targets), Pickens' 6.5 YAC/REC was good for sixth-highest in the league, while his 2.11 YPRR ranked 17th among 80 receivers.

While he struggles to separate from defenders, Pickens has a contested catch rate of 53.1 percent through his first two years in the league. Per ESPN analytics, his 94 catch rating over the last two seasons leads a group of 90 total receivers, despite his open rating (57) ranking 46th in that group.

Pickens boasts elite hands, size, and athleticism. A remotely competent quarterback is all that stands between him and an explosive 2024.

Rashee Rice (KC)

The ceiling for Rashee Rice in 2024 should be sky-high. In addition to being tethered to Patrick Mahomes, the rookie receiver was one of just four receivers in the league (min. 50 targets) to rank in the top 10 in both YAC/REC and YPRR. The other receivers in that group are guys we will absolutely be targeting next season.

Despite playing like one of the most efficient receivers in the league, Rice's volume and opportunities were frustratingly limited in 2023.

While nobody will complain about his 100 targets, things could have been much better for Rice had he been on the field more. His 416 snaps on passing downs ranked 64th amongst all receivers in the league — ranking below guys like Robert Woods, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Robinson, and Michael Gallup — to name a few. Tee Higgins played in four fewer games than Rice yet still played on more passing snaps (419) and ran more routes (396) than Rice.

Rice saw an impressive 25.5 percent targets per route run this season. The top 32 receivers in routes ran an average of 580 routes in 2023. Had Rice earned a 25.5 percent TPRR on 580 routes, he would have been looking on pace for 148 targets, which would have been good for the 10th most targets in the league

While I'm presenting this somewhat hypothetically, it's hard to imagine Rice being treated as anything less than a full-time receiver in 2024. He won't be drafted as a top-five fantasy receiver next season, but a top-five finish could be well within his range of outcomes with a much-increased role.

Tight Ends

Kyle Pitts (ATL)

Consider me aligned with the sentiments of Mr. John Daigle when it comes to Kyle Pitts. Years of being burnt by Kyle Pitts won't scare me off of the über athletic tight end in 2024 — especially with Arthur Smith now gone.

For all the disappointing seasons Pitts has provided fantasy managers, Pitts continues to show big-play potential. Since entering the league in 2021, Pitts has averaged 13.8 YPR — tying George Kittle. His 3.8 YAC/REC over that same span won't blow people away, but it's also within the range of T.J. Hockenson and Darren Waller and only narrowly off the 4.2 YAC/REC Sam LaPorta averaged this season.

There's a good chance Pitts will be playing with the best quarterback and coach of his young career come 2024.

Trey McBride (ARI)

Talking about which tight ends to target in fantasy somewhat feels like stating the obvious. When I'm not drafting the overall TE1, I target the handful of players I think could finish as the overall TE1 if a few things break in their favor. Getting a league-winning tight end at a slight discount can work wonders for a fantasy team.

That player could very well be Trey McBride.

I'd be shocked to see McBride drafted above guys like Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce, but everything we saw from him last season suggests the overall TE1 is well within his range of outcomes.

Among all tight ends with 50-plus targets last season, McBride led the group with a 27 percent TPRR. After the Cardinals decided to shelve Zach Ertz in Week 8, McBride earned a 26.2 percent target share — the highest of any qualified TE over that span (min. 3.0 targets/gm).

Travis Kelce showed a decline in several advanced metrics last season, and Sam LaPorta put himself on the overall TE1 radar with his strong rookie season. Mark Andrews will also stay in the conversation heading into his age-29 season. It's safe to say the overall TE1 candidate will be up for grabs more than usual heading into 2024. One of my top candidates to finish as such will undoubtedly be McBride, especially in what will hopefully be an entire season with Kyler Murray in a much-improved offense.