USA TODAY Sports staff makes college football picks: Check out the predictions for 2023
It might still be the final days in August, but it's not too soon to look ahead to December when the college football regular season will wrap up and it'll be time to hand out awards for the best and worst performances of the year.
But making predictions is never easy in this sport.
Alabama had made seven of the previous eight playoffs entering last season before missing out. The Big Ten got two teams in for the first time. The Big 12 finally got a representative other than Oklahoma. However, it wasn't Texas. It was TCU, which shockingly made the title game after beating Michigan in the semifinals.
Southern California's Caleb Williams entered last season as one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy. His biggest competition was expected to be Alabama's Bryce Young, who won the award in 2021. Instead, it was TCU's Max Duggan who finished second and Young was sixth.
Among the major disappointments were Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor. All three started in the preseason top 10 and finished with a losing record. On the positive side, there was TCU and the unlikely run of Tulane into the top 10. Also starting outside the Top 25 were Tennessee, Penn State and LSU. All five finished in the top 15.
So with all that said, our experts — Scooby Axson, Jace Evans, Paul Myerberg, Erick Smith and Eddie Timanus — give their best shot to answer what will happen this season.
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Which four teams make the College Football Playoff?
Axson: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Southern California — The Big Ten probably won’t get two teams in for the second consecutive year, and USC, behind Caleb Williams and another porous defense gets its first bid. The Crimson Tide returns to the playoff, and 71-year-old Nick Saban shows he can still coach circles around most of the nation. But this year, again, belongs to Georgia, who starts the season having won 17 games in row.
Evans: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Clemson — Georgia has one of the easiest paths to the playoff you’ll ever see for a two-time defending champion. Michigan shouldn’t really be challenged until going to Penn State in November. Alabama will look different and the schedule isn’t that easy, but Texas A&M is the only ranked team the Crimson Tide have to face on the road. We’ll round out with Clemson. Dabo Swinney made some changes, bringing in offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, who should help bring new life to a stale attack.
Myerberg: Michigan, Georgia, Clemson, Ohio State — Picking one SEC and one Big Ten team is the easy part. I’m going with Clemson as the No. 3 seed based on the optimistic take that Garrett Riley will quickly turn around a sputtering offense. Rounding out the field is the hard part, because how do you leave out Alabama? That’s never, ever easy.
Smith: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Clemson — This is a mostly chalk prediction that feels unsatisfying with so many other potential contenders — Ohio State, Penn State, Florida State, Tennessee and even Texas and Notre Dame. But sometimes the most-obvious answer is the one right in front of you. The Bulldogs and Wolverines are clear favorites in their leagues. The Crimson Tide and Tigers should bounce back
Timanus: Georgia, Ohio State, Southern California, Penn State — Don’t forget just how close the Buckeyes came to stopping Georgia’s repeat championship bid at the stroke of midnight as the calendar turned to 2023. They’ll both be back, and again there’ll be a second representative from the Big Ten as the Nittany Lions will earn at least a split with OSU and Michigan. The Trojans will outscore nearly everybody en route to the final Pac-12 crown.
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Who wins the national championship?
Axson: Georgia — The Bulldogs won’t lose two games in 2023 because that is the only way they won’t make the playoffs. They're too talented and deep to be denied, and the schedule sets up for most games to be over by halftime. Tennessee may cause an issue on the road, and whoever they face in the SEC championship game could potentially derail a chance at a three-peat.
Evans: Alabama — Putting my faith in the GOAT Nick Saban … as well as the fact that Georgia winning three national championships in a row just seems impossible, considering no one has done it entirely in the poll era.
Myerberg: Michigan — The stars have aligned for Michigan to take the next step after successive playoff berths and win the program’s first unshared national title since 1948. The Wolverines have depth, experience and a mean streak to combat OSU, Penn State and the rest of the Big Ten before taking on and defeating the best of the SEC in January.
Smith: Georgia — This isn't as easy of a pick as it might seem with the Bulldogs fighting against history to become the first team to three-peat while working in a new starting quarterback. But you have to trust Kirby Smart and his loaded squad will find ways to win. The biggest road block is a trip to Tennessee.
Timanus: Ohio State — The Buckeyes will get it done this time after their heartbreaking loss to Georgia, but their fans will still find something to complain about heading into 2024.
Who wins the Heisman Trophy?
Axson: Caleb Williams, Southern California — Odds are he won’t win it, but of the recent returning Heisman winners, Williams has the best chance to do it and will put up video game stats as long as Lincoln Riley is calling the plays, and he is healthy.
Evans: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State — If any non-quarterback has a chance to win this award in 2023, it’s Harrison. One of the most talented players in college football, the Buckeyes figure to get him involved early and often.
Myerberg: Sam Hartman, Notre Dame — He’s clearly at home in the system, as we saw in Notre Dame’s romp against Navy in the season opener. If he puts up his normal numbers (3,500-4,000 yards and 30-plus touchdowns) and leads the Irish to 10 or more wins, Hartman will be able to tout a combination of factors that will be hard for Heisman voters to ignore. The last Notre Dame player to finish in the top five in the Heisman was Manti Te’o in 2012 and the last to win was Tim Brown in 1987.
Smith: Jordan Travis, Florida State — The high expectations and disappointing USC defense likely will do in Caleb Williams and his bid to repeat. Among the other contenders, Travis seems best positioned to lead his team to the playoff and that would be enough to find himself in New York — maybe with some hardware to bring home.
Timanus: Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State — A receiver broke up the quarterback monopoly on the award in 2020, and Harrison is the kind of talent that could do it again.
What will be the game of the year?
Axson: Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 25 — It is doubtful the loser of this game makes the College Football Playoff like it did last year when Ohio State ended up as one of the last four. Michigan has a firm grip on the rivalry for the past two years, and this game will be played in Ann Arbor. Advantage: Wolverines.
Evans: Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 25 — The Game figures to decide the Big Ten East once again. The pressure is on Ohio State and coach Ryan Day to avoid a three-game losing streak to That Team Up North.
Myerberg: Florida State at Clemson, Sept. 23 — I’ll try not to pick Michigan-Ohio State, since that seems too easy. Should FSU win Saturday against LSU, this matchup later in September promises to be one of the most impactful ACC regular-season games in years and a game that will play an enormous role in determining the makeup of the playoff. FSU hasn't won in this series since 2014.
Smith: Texas at Alabama, Sept. 9 — A huge non-conference (for now) matchup of two of the sport's biggest names, both with significant question marks, meeting early in the season one year after a classic between the teams? Can't ask for much more than that in this age of early cupcakes. The Longhorns could announce themselves with a road win, while the Crimson Tide may silence doubters, especially at quarterback, if they are impressive.
Timanus: Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, Nov. 4 — The final chapter of Bedlam — at least for the foreseeable future — figures to be even spicier than usual. It might mean a little more to the home crowd in Stillwater, but this is the kind of game the Sooners need to win to feel good about their prospects moving forward when they join the SEC.
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Which team will be the biggest surprise?
Axson: Washington — The Huskies aren’t going to sneak up on opponents, and last year’s 11-2 record may have surprised people. They avoided USC and Utah last season but get both back-to-back in a crucial November. Anything is an improvement over last year’s horrific defense, and Michael Penix slinging the ball all over the yard to Rome Odunze is why Washington could push for the Pac-12 title.
Evans: Oklahoma — Despite being one of college football’s true bluebloods, little seems expected of the Sooners in 2023 — coaches slotted them in at No. 19, behind Texas, TCU and Kansas State in the rankings. But I think the Sooners have a bounce-back year and leave the Big 12 in style with yet another league championship, which could potentially earn them a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Myerberg: Oregon State — The Beavers might’ve won 10 games last season but will still fly under the radar in what very well could be the program’s last year in a Power Five league. Look for the offense to be better behind Clemson quarterback transfer DJ Uiagalelei, a nice fit in a scheme that will lean on his abilities as a runner. USC, Oregon and even Washington have more flash (or way more flash) but Oregon State is a rock-solid group very capable of winning the Pac-12 and playing in a New Year’s Six bowl.
Smith: UCLA — The Bruins start outside the Top 25 and will be patient with heralded freshman quarterback Dante Moore. Just give it time. They have the receiving group to make big plays and the defense should be much improved. They're capable of making a run at the Pac-12 title even if their toughest games are on the road.
Timanus: South Carolina — The Gamecocks aren’t going to unseat Georgia in the SEC East, but they might give Tennessee and Florida a run for second place. Spencer Rattler brings stability and experience at quarterback. Improvement on defense could see them repeat a finish in the Top 25.
And which will be the biggest disappointment?
Axson: Colorado — This prediction is predicated on what is expected of the Buffaloes. Talk is cheap, and Colorado and coach Deion Sanders have been doing plenty of it this offseason. The truth is no one knows what this team will look like and expectations are high in Boulder. The struggles will come, and anything resembling a bowl team will be a significant success in Sanders’ first year.
Evans: LSU — The Tigers had an impressive first season under coach Brian Kelly, surprisingly winning the SEC West. But No. 5 just seems way too high for what was a four-loss team last year that seemingly has nowhere to go but down in the rankings.
Myerberg: Texas — Picking the Longhorns to meet (or go beyond) expectations would be a bigger role of the dice. There’s so much hype around this team that it seems almost inevitable Texas falls short. We’ll know pretty soon: UT is at Alabama in Week 2. A win there changes the equation.
Smith: TCU — A run to the national championship game was one of the stories of the playoff era. Sadly, the Horned Frogs will struggle to maintain that form after winning so many close games fueled by the heroics of Max Duggan. They'll take a step back in the Big 12 with the resurgence of Oklahoma and Texas and the continued success of Kansas State.
Timanus: Michigan — Disappointment is relative here. The Wolverines will still have double-digit wins. But their last two seasons featured Big Ten titles, defeats of Ohio State, and playoff appearances. None of those will happen this time.
Who wins coach of the year?
Axson: Kirby Smart, Georgia — Smart has overtaken Nick Saban as the sport’s best coach, and there isn’t a reason in the world why the Bulldogs shouldn't be there at the end when the playoff teams are announced.
Evans: Nick Saban, Alabama — Saban reminds everyone that he, and not protégé Kirby Smart, is still college football’s top dog.
Myerberg: Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame — After going 9-4 in his first year and suffering bad losses to Marshall and Stanford, Freeman will become a national name should he pilot Notre Dame to 10 or 11 wins. That’s definitely achievable given the quality of the roster and a schedule that is extremely manageable outside of the three big ones: Ohio State, Clemson and USC.
Smith: Luke Fickell, Wisconsin — It won't quite be the debut season for Fickell with the Badgers as it was for Sonny Dykes at TCU last season, however expect much better offensive production from Wisconsin and its overhauled offense. The defense should again be stingy, making the Badgers a very real contender for the playoff.
Timanus: Chris Klieman, Kansas State — His work returning the Wildcats to consistently winning in the tradition of Bill Snyder has gone somewhat unappreciated nationally. He’ll finally earn some deserved recognition should K-State again find itself in the championship mix in the expanded Big 12.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football predictions: Our staff makes picks for 2023 season
