Updating NCAA March Miller math for Big 12 Cincinnati Bearcats, Big East Xavier Musketeers

Dance cards get filled out three weeks from Sunday with each game for many men's college basketball teams taking on increased significance now through St. Patrick's Day.

Both the Cincinnati Bearcats and Xavier Musketeers have plenty of work to do before the CBS show on March 17, including making a decent showing in their respective conference tournaments. "Lock" schools can have a blip in their conference tournament, rest up and still make an NCAA run.

That's not the case for UC and XU, who each suffered critical setbacks to their respective March aspirations Wednesday with home losses. Xavier came up short to Providence while UC fell to last-place Oklahoma State.

More: 'That's a problem.' Xavier's Sean Miller rips Big East officials after technical foul

"Bubble" schools need to make four and five-game streaks to pretty up the resumé. The Big 12 and Big East tournaments have their championship games March 16 with UC heading to Kansas City and Xavier visiting New York City.

Here are the latest paths for UC and XU:

Cincinnati Bearcats

Again, the Bearcats check in statically as one of the best 68 teams, but 32 automatic bids and the obligatory upsets always throw that projection off as well as dropping winnable games. Sure Oklahoma State had played Oklahoma close in Norman and knocked off then-No. 19 BYU, but it was a game the Bearcats were favored by 10.5 points to win. Instead, it's a regrettable Quad 3 loss.

Best way in?

The Big 12 tournament in Kansas City runs March 12-16 where bids could be made or lost. If the Bearcats fall to a No. 11-14 seed, they would need a five-game run for the automatic bid and would start play Tuesday, March 12. Seeds 6-10 start Wednesday, March 13 and would need four-game spurts. Top four seeds begin Thursday, March 14 and need three wins for glory.

Going into the weekend, UC is currently a No. 10 seed which IF things stood could mean TCU in a second-round game. That winner would likely face Iowa State in a quarterfinal. You could argue a No. 11 seed might be an easier path, but it would mean an extra game. The bottom line is other than Houston and Iowa State, it appears any team can win depending on who shows up that day.

What bracketologists say

ESPN's Joe Lunardi maintains the Bearcats are on the bubble but now lists them among "the next four out". That is with the Big 12 still qualifying nine teams. Jerry Palm at CBS also has UC as one of the first four out with nine Big 12 qualifiers. Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports has removed UC from consideration for now.

As the poet Robert Frost wrote, the Bearcats have miles to go before they sleep.

Road to reality

Until they reach Kansas City, UC has five cards to play:

At TCU: UC beat them when they were ranked No. 19. The Horned Frogs will be favored at home.

At Houston: The Cougars have beaten UC' 10 straight games and haven't lost at home this season.

Kansas State: UC MUST hold serve at home, but the Wildcats do own overtime wins over both Baylor and Kansas when both were Top 10 teams.

At Oklahoma: UC should've beaten them here. They'd be best served to win in Norman where they won't be favored.

West Virginia: UC's Senior Day and the Bearcats need to take care of business.

Projection

The Bearcats have Quad 1 win opportunities in four of the last five games and probably need at least three total wins to stay in the hunt. Dropping a game to a team that had not previously won on the road was a huge misstep. UC's eight league losses have come by a total of 32 points or four points per game. While that may mean they're close, the NCAA Selection Committee values quality wins over near misses.

If there is a rabbit to be pulled out of a hat, Wes Miller could use some magic.

Xavier Musketeers

Less than two weeks ago, Xavier had put itself on the NCAA Tournament bubble with a hard-fought win over Villanova. Following Wednesday's loss to Providence, Xavier is on the outside looking in and it would take an improbable run − either over the final five regular-season games or in the Big East Tournament − to secure a ticket to the dance.

Best way in?

Given its struggles with inconsistency over 26 games, a run by Xavier seems unlikely with three of its final five regular season games on the road. Xavier would need a win and some help in the Big East to secure the No. 5 spot in the conference and the first-round Big East Tournament bye that comes with it. Xavier now trails Providence by 1.5 games for the No. 5 seed in the conference, further stressing how crushing Wednesday's 79-75 loss at Cintas Center was.

Only one game separates seeds 6-9 right now, so it's likely that Xavier will be suiting up at Madison Square Garden for the first round of the Big East Tournament on Wednesday, March 13.

What bracketologists say

A .500 overall record, a below-.500 mark in league play and a three-game losing streak in late-February isn't going to have many pundits projecting a team to be dancing come Selection Sunday. Xavier hasn't been able to capitalize on playing the sixth-hardest schedule in the country, according to KenPom. The Musketeers are just 2-9 in Quadrant 1 wins and picked up a Quadrant 2 loss Wednesday night against the Friars.

Xavier's path to March Madness

Per KenPom, Xavier is now projected to go 16-15 overall and 10-10 in Big East action. Xavier still has three Quadrant 1 wins on the table as of now, but it's obviously a tall task. Xavier will be an underdog in three of its final five games.

At No. 7 Marquette (KenPom's final score/Xavier's chance of winning): Marquette 81, Xavier 72 (22%)

Vs. DePaul: Xavier 86, DePaul 64 (98%)

At Georgetown: Xavier 86, Georgetown 64 (78%)

At Butler: Butler 78, Xavier 76 (41%)

Vs. No. 7 Marquette: Marquette 77, Xavier 75 (42%)

Projection

Since the Big East realigned in 2013, 41 of the 44 teams to finish the regular season with an above .500 record in conference play have made the NCAA Tournament. The outliers are St. John's (10-8) in 2014 and 2021 and Seton Hall in 2021 (10-9). Both St. John's teams to miss the tournament had below average non-conference strength of schedule rankings (No. 255 in 2014 and No. 259 in 2021), while Seton Hall was more of a conundrum with the 40th hardest schedule overall and 44th-hardest in non-conference.

Strength of schedule can only help Xavier's chances this year with the murderers' row of opponents that have lined up opposite of the Musketeers this season. Can they get to above .500? It doesn't take a mathematician to realize Xavier would have to go 4-1 over its next five league games to do it. That would mean picking up a pair of Quadrant 1 wins along the way. The games against DePaul and Georgetown have to be wins and you'd have to steal two of three against Marquette and Butler.

Given Xavier's struggles on the road this season (2-6) it's a tall task. At this point, one would have to imagine it would take an early Cinderella Story in the form of a Big East Tournament Championship for Xavier to make the dance. However, Xavier is currently 1-5 against the top-four seeds in the standings, so the odds aren't exactly flattering. At this point, the likely outcome involves Xavier deciding whether it wishes to accept a potential bid to the NIT, an event they won two seasons ago before Sean Miller's return.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Getting Millers to March: Paths for UC Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers