Updated win projections for the Oklahoma Sooners after their loss to Kansas State
The Oklahoma Sooners took a hit in their loss to the Kansas State Wildcats. The way the game played out took the air right out of the sails of the momentum that had been built over the previous nine months.
By no means does a loss change the goals or the expectations, but it provides a greater challenge for them to reach those goals. That being a Big 12 title and College Football Playoff berth.
The Big 12 schedule looks like a gauntlet this season, with only two teams that have more than one loss. Those two teams, Texas and West Virginia have a pair of losses, but they aren’t terrible losses. Texas dropped close games to Alabama and on the road in overtime to Texas Tech. West Virginia lost a close contest to Pitt in the renewal of the Backyard Brawl and to the resurgent Kansas Jayhawks.
The Oklahoma Sooners will have to play better on both sides of the ball if they want to make the trip to Arlington in December to play for the Big 12 championship. At this point, there’s little room for error.
As the Sooners move on in preparation for a road trip to face TCU, here’s a look at the updated win projections for Oklahoma according to ESPN’s matchup predictor.
Oct. 1: TCU Horned Frogs (Fort Worth)
Sept. 2, 2022; Boulder, Colorado; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Derius Davis (11) celebrates his touchdown with quarterback Max Duggan (15) in the fourth quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 65.5% (Down from 74.5%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 17-5
Projected running record: 4-1
Oct. 8: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)
Oct. 9, 2021; Dallas, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners wide receiver Marvin Mims (17) makes a touchdown catch in front of Texas Longhorns defensive back Darion Dunn (4) during the fourth quarter at the Cotton Bowl. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Predicted Winner: Texas
Sooners Win Probability: 46.1% (Down from 46.5%)
All-Time Series: Texas leads 62-50-5
Projected running record: 4-2
Oct. 15: Kansas Jayhawks (Norman)
Oct. 23, 2021; Lawrence; Kansas Jayhawks running back Devin Neal (4) scores a touchdown against the Oklahoma Sooners during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 87.9% (Down from 89.3%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 79-29-6
Projected running record: 5-2
Oct. 22: BYE WEEK
Oct. 29: Iowa State Cyclones (Ames, Iowa)
Nov. 20, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy (15) fumbles the ball in front of Oklahoma Sooners linebacker David Ugwoegbu (2) during the game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Jack Trice Stadium (Ames)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 62.9% (Down from 64.3%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 78-7-2
Projected running record: 6-2
Nov. 5: Baylor Bears (Norman)
Nov. 16, 2019; Waco, Texas; Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman Marcus Stripling (33) and Baylor Bears offensive lineman Connor Galvin (76) in action during the game between the Bears and the Sooners at McLane Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 62.4% (Down from 68.6%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 28-4
Projected running record: 7-2
Nov. 12: West Virginia Mountaineers (Morgantown)
Sept. 25, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners safety Delarrin Turner-Yell (32) makes an interception during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium (Morgantown)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 68% (Down from 75.9%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 11-2
Projected running record: 8-2
Nov. 19: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Norman)
Nov. 27, 2021; Stillwater; Oklahoma Sooners tight end Brayden Willis (9) catches a pass for a touchdown against Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse (24) during the first half at Boone Pickens Stadium. Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 71.6% (Down from 74.1%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 90-19-7
Projected running record: 9-2
Nov. 26: Texas Tech Red Raiders (Lubbock)
Oct. 30, 2021; Norman; Oklahoma Sooners running back Marcus Major (24) runs with the ball during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Jones AT&T Stadium (Lubbock)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 72.7% (Down from 78.4%)
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 23-6
Projected running record: 10-2
Summary
It doesn’t come as a surprise that Oklahoma lost percentage points in win probability. Whether it’s the computer or the human element, the Sooners have a lot to prove moving forward. Was the week for loss to Kansas State an aberration or is that the team we should expect to see moving forward in 2022?
A 10-2 record still keeps them in the hunt for the Big 12 title. If the win projections go this way, taking out Oklahoma State and Baylor along the way would put the Sooners in a position to make it to Arlington.
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