Updated Ohio State ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions after Week 1
Well, that was fun.
We had our first full slate of college football games and that meant Ohio State was in action. And it wasn’t just any game, it was a titanic clash between two top-five teams. The Buckeyes came out on top with a hard-fought win over Notre Dame that had the team display toughness and grit.
But, the national perception is that OSU didn’t look like a team destined for greatness this year, largely because of the struggles on offense, a side of the ball that was supposed to be its strength.
With some data now to go on, ESPN has updated its FPI predictions on the percentage chance of Ohio State’s remaining games, and we like to follow where the trends are going. We’ll continue to check in on it throughout the year.
Here’s how the win over Notre Dame affected OSU’s chances of winning each of its remaining games according to the ESPN FPI.
Saturday, Sept. 10, vs. Arkansas State
Oct. 7, 2021; Jonesboro; Arkansas State Red Wolves quarterback Layne Hatcher (3) fakes the handoff to running back Lincoln Pare (22) at Centennial Bank Stadium. Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.4% (down from 99.3%)
All-Time Series: First matchup
Projected running record: 2-0
Saturday, Sept. 17, vs. Toledo
Sept. 23, 2017; Miami Gardens, Florida; Toledo Rockets head coach Jason Candle looks on from the sideline in the game against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.4% (up from 98.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 3-0
Projected running record: 3-0
Saturday, Sept. 24, vs. Wisconsin
Nov. 20, 2021; Madison; Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Nick Herbig (19) tackles Nebraska Cornhuskers tight end Austin Allen (11) during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 90.5% (down from 92.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 61-18-5
Projected running record: 4-0
Saturday, Oct. 1, vs. Rutgers
Nov. 20, 2021; University Park, Pennsylvania; A detailed view of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights football helmets during a warmup prior to the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 98.0% (down from 98.5%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 8-0
Projected running record: 5-0
Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State
Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne passes against Ohio State during the second half at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020. USA TODAY Sports
Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.3% (down from 83.1%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 35-15
Projected running record: 6-0
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa
Iowa Hawkeyes players Ryan Gersonde (2) Riley Moss (33) quarterback Spencer Petras (7) wide receiver Max Cooper (19) and defensive back Jack Koerner (28) get pumped up before an NCAA Big Ten Conference football game against Indiana, Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. USA TODAY Sports Network
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (up from 95.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-15-3
Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State
PJ Mustipher #97 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates with teammates after recording a sack against the Villanova Wildcats during the first half at Beaver Stadium on Sept. 25, 2021, in State College, Pennsylvania. Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 82.5% (down from 82.9%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 22-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern
Sept. 25, 2021; Evanston, Illinois; Northwestern Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald on the sideline during the first half against the Ohio Bobcats at Ryan Field. David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 95.8% (down from 96.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 64-14-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Indiana Hoosiers head coach Tom Allen watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, Ind. on Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. Ohio State won 54-7. USA TODAY Sports Network
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.7% (down from 98.0%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Dec. 29, 2021; New York, New York; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) is tackled by Virginia Tech Hokies defensive back Jalen Stroman (26) during the second half of the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 89.7% (down from 90.6%)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Jim Harbaugh would owe Michigan a $1.5 million buyout if he were to leave this year.
Ohio State Buckeyes At Michigan Wolverines. USA TODAY Sports Network
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 80.3% (down from 84.8%)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
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