UFC 294 breakdown: How will Kamaru Usman fare at middleweight against Khamzat Chimaev?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the co-main event for UFC 294.
UFC 294 takes place Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The main card airs on pay-per-view at a special time of 2 p.m. ET following prelims on ESPN+.
Khamzat Chimaev (12-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6’2″ Age: 29 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75″
Last fight: Submission win over Kevin Holland (Sept. 10, 2022)
Camp: ADMA Academy (Dubai)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ National champion in freestyle wrestling (SE)
^ Won multiple years and weight divisions
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 submission victories
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking and footwork
^ Solid jab from both stances
+ Favors front kicks from open stance
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Excellent transitional grappling
^ Good positional awareness and punishing process
Kamaru Usman (20-3 MMA, 15-2 UFC)
Staple info:
Height: 6’0″ Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
Last fight: Decision loss to Leon Edwards (March 18, 2023)
Camp: ONX Labs/Kill Cliff FC (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ NCAA Division-II national champ
+ 3x NCAA All-American
+ 9 KO victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Solid feints and footwork
+ Improved overall striking
^ Jabs, bodywork, etc.
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Excellent takedown ability
^ In the open or against the fence
+ Superb top game and control
^ Rides and transitions intelligently
+/- Fighting on 11 days notice
Point of interest: Striking on short notice
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering the crux of each fighter’s game, winning the wrestling will remain paramount for both parties.
Wrestling since the age of five, Chimaev has seemingly adapted to the grappling arts like second nature. From a lightning-fast shot to incredible wherewithal within the clinch, Chimaev seems to have it all from a wrestling perspective.
The 29-year-old displays a lot of the freestyle (and even Greco) looks that you would associate with his part of the world, yet also demonstrates a lot of the positional rides that traditionally come easier to American folkstyle wrestlers. And when Chimaev took the back of Li Jingliang at UFC 267, the Chechen fighter showed off some very competent jiu-jitsu to close to show via rear-naked choke.
Rewatching Khamzat Chimaev’s first amateur MMA fight and totally forgot about the makeshift playpen full of children cage-side who ended up getting a front row seat for this finish (*note the youngest girl cheering): pic.twitter.com/2XT9d0IWul
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 1, 2020
From early in his regional career to his more recent battle with Gilbert Burns, Chimaev has shown solid submission and wrestling defense in multiple scenarios. Whether someone is looking for Chimaev’s legs or attempting to re-guard, the product from the Allstars Training Center typically gives his opposition very little to work with – all while staying busy with offense of his own.
That said, I’m not sure how much Usman will be shooting on Chimaev given the lack of preparation that 11 days notice presents.
Usman does, however, offer rock-solid takedown defense and crafty clinch tactics that Chimaev will need to be aware of.
Say no more fam https://t.co/Jzm3uPqRvz pic.twitter.com/b7hrAOxnRF
— Miguel Class (@MigClass) March 14, 2023
From hips that are hardwired to sprawl at the drop of a dime to sneaky clinch tie-ups that involve Jon Jones-like wrist feeds, Usman has all the on-paper tools to possibly stymie a large part of Chimaev’s efforts.
And if Usman is able to end up on top in a scramble, he bears an impressive intelligence in transition that could help him in this matchup.
Demonstrating excellent positional awareness, Usman always seems to make high-percentage choices whether he is passing or punching. Using suffocating wrestling rides that stymie everything from posts to submission attempts, Usman will seamlessly hit his transitions while steaming his opposition underneath him.
That said, Chimaev does not appear to be someone who will settle for the bottom easily.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the younger fighter, listing Chimaev -320 and Usman +235 via FanDuel.
If Usman was given a full camp to properly prepare for this challenge, then I’d probably take a flier on the former welterweight champion to have a successful middleweight debut.
But between the elephant in the room that is 11 days’ notice to the speculative health of Usman’s knees, it’s hard to be confident in “The Nigerian Nightmare” in this spot.
Even if Usman’s healthy enough to sustain his stellar takedown defense rating, I can’t help but see Chimaev’s uppercuts and front teeps wreaking havoc on his 36-year-old foe given his history with those strikes.
Don’t get me wrong: I believe that Chimaev is cruising for an eventual bruising, but I don’t think it comes here.
