UFC 292: Does Sean O'Malley have a chance to pull the upset on Aljamain Sterling?
Rarely is there a UFC title fight where one question is so preponderant: Does challenger Sean O'Malley even have a chance to defeat champion Aljamain Sterling when they fight Saturday in the main event of UFC 292 at TD Garden in Boston for the bantamweight title?
The odds heavily favor Sterling. The styles of the fighters — Sterling is a wrestler and O'Malley a striker — favors Sterling. The quality of opposition favors Sterling. Just about any metric you want to use favors Sterling.
O'Malley, though, didn't get a title shot because of his good looks. Being one of the most popular fighters in the sport didn't hurt his chances, but he's racked up an 8-1 UFC record because of his elite-level striking and high fight IQ.
O'Malley's never faced the kind of big, burly wrestler he will when he faces Sterling, who is relentless and never stops trying to put his opponent on his back. Even O'Malley knows he is in for trouble if that happens too often.
"I just can't let him get his hands on me," O'Malley told Yahoo Sports.
If O'Malley can prevent that, the outlook of the fight changes dramatically. Sterling, who had four takedowns at UFC 288 on UFC legend and Olympic gold medal-winning wrestler Henry Cejudo, is likely to get him down at least a couple of times. At that point, O'Malley's jiu-jitsu defense and his ability to get back to his feet will come into play.
O'Malley's jiu-jitsu defense is underrated and he does have submissions, so Sterling will also have to be careful.
The most expected way the fight plays out is that O'Malley uses his jab and kicks to try to stay all the way on the outside and keep Sterling at bay while he tries to set him up for a potentially fight-ending combination, while Sterling will be looking to close the distance and either shoot on O'Malley or fight into the clinch.
O'Malley's not going to survive long if Sterling can regularly close the distance.
But, and admittedly, this is a big but, if O'Malley can stay at range, he has the kind of striking that will cause Sterling problems. O'Malley is extremely quick and that quickness brings power. Sterling will have to set up his shots, because if he shoots without setting it up, O'Malley can catch him with an uppercut.
O'Malley is smart and he took this fight when he did because he feels he's ready. He knows what he has to do and despite his brashness, he has plenty of respect for Sterling's skills. He's spent most of his career trying to fend off takedowns and in the UFC, he has a 60% takedown defense ratio. He also lands an absurdly high 7.43 significant strikes per minute, which is sixth in the UFC. His connect percentage is 60%, which puts him 10th. And his significant strike differential is 4.04, which puts him eighth.
All of that suggests that O'Malley is far more than a hype job put into a fight with no chance to win.
And given he's +200 at BetMGM, that's a lucrative price. So I'll take the money and bet one unit on O'Malley to win at +200.
Zhang looks good over Lemos
Strawweight champion Zhang Weili is a -320 favorite to defend her title against hard-hitting Amanda Lemos in the co-main event. Lemos is +250.
Zhang is a far better fighter and far better athlete than Lemos, but I don't want to lay better than 3-to-1. Lemos' power is real and even if Zhang is beating her up most of the way, all it takes is one punch for the title to change hands.
Zhang is +110 to win by knockout, and though that presents some risks, I'll go there and take the money and bet Zhang to win by KO. It is never good if you have the right side but you predicted a specific finish and the fight ends differently.
I've had that happen before, and I've largely stayed away from those bets, but I think Zhang will be able to land often on Lemos. She hits hard enough that Lemos won't be able to take it long and I think Zhang finishes it. So it's Zhang to win by knockout at +110 for me in this one.
Other UFC 292 picks
• Chris Weidman at +210 to win over Brad Tavares.
• Gregory Rodrigues and Denis Tiuliulin to go over 1.5 rounds at +150.
• Andre Petroski at -230 to win over Gerald Meerschaert.
