Tiger Bracketology: How LSU stacks up after the loss to Alabama
LSU lost a tough one in Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night. They showed fight, but it wasn’t enough to overcome an offense that sputtered for most of the night.
It was the second loss in a row for the Tigers and dropped LSU to just 3-3 in SEC play and 15-3 on the year.
It was a loss, but it was a respectable one. Despite not being ranked, Alabama is a good team, one that probably should be ranked. In addition, LSU remained without Xavier Pinson and lost Darius Days early in the night with a sprained ankle.
A week ago, LSU was firmly in contention as a one seed. After the back-to-back losses, they aren’t there anymore but they aren’t entirely out of it. LSU now sits at No. 9 in the NET rankings, just one spot below their previous ranking. ESPN has them No. 8 in the strength of record.
Those are encouraging numbers that would suggest if the tournament started tomorrow, LSU would still have a pretty good shot at a number two seed. Certainly, they’d be no lower than fourth.
The first few weeks of conference play have gone a long way to helping LSU’s strength of schedule. The Tigers are No. 21 in KenPom’s SOS and No. 18 in ESPN’s.
One of the most important factors helping to determine the NET rankings is which quadrant wins come in. LSU is currently 4-2 against quad one opponents. A win on the road against Alabama would have made that 5-1.
In quad two, LSU is 4-1. That lone quad two-loss came at the hands of Arkansas on Jan. 15th.
A combined 8-3 record against quad one and two is a strong record. Due to the 8-1 start, LSU could afford the losses to Arkansas and Alabama without it causing any real long-term damage.
LSU will have another opportunity to add to the quad one category in Knoxville on Saturday. It’s still not clear whether LSU will have Pinson or Days available. If not, it could be another rough day for the LSU offense.
The good news is that if it comes down to it, the selection committee may take into account that LSU was without Pinson for this stretch of games. Especially if he comes back and seems to make a large difference in LSU’s offense.
After Tennessee, LSU’s schedule becomes a world easier. The Tigers won’t face a top 40 team again until Kentucky on February 23rd.
Easier opponents mean an opportunity to get healthy, regroup, and figure out the offense. The flip side to that is if LSU loses any of those games against lesser opponents, it shows up as a bad loss on the resume. A win against Tennessee would go a long way to giving LSU some room for error down the stretch.
