Three bold predictions for Kansas State basketball heading into the 2023-24 season

MANHATTAN — Kansas State basketball exceeded all expectations last year in its first season under first-time college head coach Jerome Tang.

The Wildcats were picked last in the Big 12, but tied for third, and then took it up a notch in the postseason, advancing to the East Regional finals of the NCAA Tournament on the way to a 26-10 record.

But the two leaders of that team, third-team All-Americans Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson are now in the NBA, while third-leading scorer and No. 2 rebounder Nae'Qwan Tomlin is suspended indefinitely. Tang did restock the roster with a collection proven Division I transfers and talented freshmen to go with key returning role players.

The question now is whether Tang can mold this new group into the same kind of cohesive unit that took the league by storm a year ago. Here are three bold predictions as the 2023-24 Wildcats count down to Monday night's 9 p.m. (central time) regular-season opener against Southern California in Las Vegas.

Wildcats' No. 6 Big 12 ranking just about right

The Big 12 coaches did not have much to go on last year when they picked K-State 10th in a 10-team league. Tang was a first-time head coach and only two players were back from a 2021-22 team that finished near the bottom of the standings under predecessor Bruce Weber.

The second time around, now that they have a larger sample size, they slotted the Wildcats at No. 6 out of 14 teams, and that seems like a reasonable pick. So while Tang is setting national championship goals for his team, keep in mind that a top-half finish in this league should be plenty good enough to reach the NCAA Tournament, and from there pretty much anything can happen.

Kansas is the national preseason No. 1 pick, and Houston is in the top 10, while Baylor and Texas are not far behind. No. 5 Big 12 selection TCU, K-State and No. 7 Iowa State also are receiving Top 25 votes.

Tang's rationale for setting a high bar is sound, though in reality a little too ambitious.

"I just felt I heard a quote that a small vision is an insult to a big God," he said. "And I felt like I underestimated or set the ball a little too low for the guys last year, and I don't want to do that again.

"And I'd rather shoot for the stars and land on the moon."

A moon landing seems more reasonable for this team, given the number of new faces and the uncertainty with Tomlin's status.

Related: Kansas State basketball overpowers Emporia State on the way to blowout exhibition victory

Scoring won't be a problem for this team

Tang felt comfortable with the versatility in the roster he has assembled to install a new offense toward the end of the summer with an eye both on the present and the future. In the long term, he wants to use the offense to attract elite big men.

The new five-out set allows for the big men — Tang would say specifically the big men — to help spread the floor and take advantage of potential mismatches. According to Tang, the Wildcats have enough shooters, one through five, to stretch defenses and create driving lanes for the guards to attack the basket.

"We've got a pretty good shooting team," Tang said ahead of last Wednesday's 102-68 exhibition victory over Emporia State. "There's a number of drills that we do that you have a standard that you want to make, and we're consistently exceeding those standards.

"In fact, we've started to raise the standard on some of that that I've had for 19 years. So, I like our ability to shoot the ball if we shoot the right shots."

The Wildcats shot 52% against the Hornets, but made just 28% of their 3-pointers, going 9-for-32 from behind the arc. But Tang had now complaints about shot selection.

North Texas transfer Tylor Perry, whom Tang has called the best shooter in the nation, got off to a rough start by drawing two early fouls and was just 2 of 9 from 3-point range, a number that is sure to go up.

Tang has challenged returning starter Cam Carter to increase his scoring production after averaging 6.5 points last year as a sophomore, and Carter responded with a 20-point outing against Emporia State.

Tomlin, a 6-foot-10 forward with guard skills, would be a perfect fit in the new offense if he makes it back.

Related: Kansas State basketball coach Jerome Tang has 'no timetable' for Nae'Qwan Tomlin's return

Nae'Qwan Tomlin will return to be a key contributor

Tomlin, whose arrest for fighting at a Manhattan bar last weekend led to his suspension, has some work ahead of him to convince Tang that he is ready to rejoin the team.

Tang, faced with his first serious public discipline case in his short head coaching tenure made it clear that Tomlin's future with the Wildcats is not a given, but so far has said all the right things.

"It's never fun disciplining your children," Tang said. "But the Bible is very clear that the greatest form of love is discipline, and whom the father loves, he disciplines. And so a lot of people run away from it, and that's never been one of our shortcomings.

"So, I’m thankful that God made me in a way that I'm not afraid of confrontation, and I'm not afraid of holding people accountable. Because to me, it's a service of love."

That said, Tang is not turning his back on Tomlin.

"Right now, I'm not even focused on (his return) as I'm focused on that young fella getting better every day and moving in the right direction and recognizing what his pitfalls are and what his downfalls are and learning to develop a plan to avoid those situations," he said.

Provided Tomlin is serious about making it back, he has the ability to impact the Wildcats on both ends of the floor. He averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 rebounds and is a matchup nightmare.

Tomlin's biggest obstacle last year was foul trouble, and the Wildcats suffered when he spent extended stretches on the bench. According to Tang, K-State lost just once all season when Tomlin played 30 or more minutes.

Arne Green is based in Salina and covers Kansas State University sports for the Gannett network. He can be reached at agreen@gannett.com or on Twitter at @arnegreen.

This article originally appeared on Topeka Capital-Journal: Three bold predictions for Kansas State men's basketball in 2023-24