Can Texas Tech football fashion a November to remember?
The Texas Tech football program got on a roll late in 2022 and early in 2023. Beating Oklahoma in the regular-season finale and routing Mississippi in the Texas Bowl energized the team on the field. Off the field in the months since, Joey McGuire's staff has assembled a recruiting class ranked among the top 25 nationally.
When McGuire told reporters at Big 12 media days he believed Texas Tech and Texas would "be playing for something" in the regular-season finale, getting to six wins wasn't what he had in mind.
To maintain some semblance of an upward trajectory, the Red Raiders need to get bowl eligible — a foregone conclusion all off-season, now anything but a sure thing. Tech (3-5, 2-3 in the Big 12) has to win three of its last four regular-season games to do so.
Here are scenarios spelling out how each of Tech's four remaining games could go either way. Also a ranking, from easiest to hardest, of the Red Raiders' chances of winning each.
Thursday vs. TCU (4-4, 2-3)
Texas Tech wins because: This isn't the TCU team that reached last year's College Football Playoff, where it beat Michigan and lost to Georgia in the title game. That team lost eight players to the NFL Draft, including a big three of Heisman Trophy finalist Max Duggan, receiver Quentin Johnston and running back Kendre Miller, all first-team All-Big 12 honorees. The talent drop-off was apparent the first two months of the season.
Texas Tech loses because: Do the Horned Frogs have a hex on the Red Raiders regardless? They've won four in a row in the series and seven of nine. Even the stripped-down model still could prevail in Jones AT&T Stadium.
Tech's chance of winning: Second easiest.
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Nov. 11 at Kansas (6-2, 3-2)
Texas Tech wins because: These two teams feature a lot of the same players who played in last year's game, and Tech won that one handily. Even with KU's Jason Bean passing for 270 yards, Devin Neal rushing for 190 yards and Lawrence Arnold catching passes for 110 yards, the Red Raiders still posted a 43-28 victory at Jones AT&T Stadium. Also just like last year, Jayhawks sparkplug QB Jalon Daniels has been sidelined a good part of the season, this time with back problems.
Texas Tech loses because: Kansas continues to trend in the right direction under third-year coach Lance Leipold, and Tech is trending the other way under second-year coach Joey McGuire. The Jayhawks scored another program-building victory last week against Oklahoma, its first against the Sooners since 1997. The Red Raiders have lost four times as a betting favorite and are still looking for their first significant win of the season.
Tech's chance of winning: Second hardest.
Nov. 18 vs. Central Florida (3-5, 0-5)
Texas Tech wins because: Tahj Brooks against the UCF rushing defense is a mismatch. Brooks carried 31 times for 170 yards, both career highs, in a 39-14 victory last month at Baylor. The Bears are No. 118 of 130 FBS team in rushing defense and UCF is No. 126 in rushing defense, having allowed six individual 100-yard rushing performances.
Texas Tech loses because: The time to face UCF was earlier in the season when dual-threat quarterback John Rhys Plumlee missed three games with a knee injury. The Knights are a different team with Plumlee, who has 10 career 100-yard rushing performances including five last season. Back in the lineup for full games the past two weeks, Plumlee passed for 248 yards and two touchdowns in an upset bid at Oklahoma and 274 yards and three TDs against West Virginia.
Tech's chance of winning: Easiest.
Nov. 24 at Texas (7-1, 4-1)
Texas Tech wins because: There would be no better way for the Red Raiders and their fans to salvage a disappointing season than by beating Texas in Austin in the Longhorns' last regular-season game as a Big 12 member. What an SEC sendoff that would be. No matter Tech's record going into Thanksgiving weekend, the Red Raiders should be sky high for this one. And they have a recent history of springing upsets at Royal-Memorial Stadium, having done so in 2015 and 2017.
Texas Tech loses because: The Red Raiders' offense can't match weapons with their Texas' counterparts. The Longhorns have scored at least 30 points in each of their eight games this season and rank No. 24 in the FBS in scoring offense. Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter will have his hands full having to account for multiple weapons, including running back Jonathon Brooks, receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell and tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders. On the flip side, Texas ranks No. 15 in scoring defense, and three Tech opponents have held the Red Raiders to 21 points or fewer.
Tech's chance of winning: Hardest.
This article originally appeared on Lubbock Avalanche-Journal: Can Texas Tech football fashion a November to remember?
