How Phoenix Suns can take NBA title with Booker, Durant and Beal all getting theirs
Phoenix Suns superstar Kevin Durant was part of the only NBA team to have three 20-point scorers and win a championship in the same season.
Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Durant each averaged that amount as the Golden State Warriors won back-to-back titles in 2016-17 and 2017-18.
Curry averaged 25.3 points per game, Durant 25.1 and Thompson 22.3 in 2016-17. The following season their averages were 26.4, 26.4 and 20.0, respectively.
Durant is now entering his first full season with the Suns, playing with three guys who’ve averaged 20-plus points over their careers: himself at 27.2 ppg, Devin Booker 23.8 and Bradley Beal 22.1.
Booker is a 26-year-old lion entering his prime years, and Beal is excited to compete for a championship after never making it past the second round in 11 seasons with the Washington Wizards.
Durant's on the back end of an express ballot Hall of Fame career. Injuries have dogged him in recent years, but he’s still an elite NBA bucket from in tight to way out.
On paper, the Suns are a championship contender that’s a wait-and-see.
Those championship Warriors delivered with the greatest shooter ever in Curry, fellow “Splash Brother” Thompson and the scoring evolution in the 6-10 Durant fueling an unstoppable offense.
They ranked first in offensive rating in 2016-17, third in 2017-18 and led the NBA in scoring both seasons.
They also defended.
The Warriors ranked second in defensive rating in the 2016-17 season, as Draymond Green earned defensive player of the year honors that year and finished 11th the following season.
The Suns have proven scorers and a new head coach in Frank Vogel who has had some of the NBA’s best defensive teams with the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers.
Under Vogel, the Suns should improve on being 13th out of 16 2023 playoff teams in defensive rating, but their offense should put the fear of Godzilla in opponents.
With Booker, Beal and Durant they have center Deandre Ayton, who averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds last season, but is capable of 25 and 15 any night.
Still, the attention is on the Suns' Big 3 and who must sacrifice his scoring.
Looks like that’ll be Beal, but the Warriors showed scorers can get theirs and still win championships.
Let’s examine Golden State’s first season together with Curry, Durant and Thompson and see if these Suns might be able to somewhat function the same way in pursuit of the franchise’s first NBA title.
Possessions and shot attempts
Golden State averaged 100.9 possessions in 2016-17. This greatly factored in Durant, Curry and Thompson averaging a combined 52.4 shots a game.
Curry averaged 18.3 attempts, Thompson posted 17.6 and Durant 16.5 after hoisting 19.2 with Oklahoma City the season before, 2015-16.
Turns out Durant ended up making the sacrifice in terms of attempts.
Regardless of who launched, they were cash from 3 — Thompson 44%, Curry 42.3% and Durant 41.9%.
They accounted for 68.2% of Golden State’s 3-point attempts, 72.1% of their makes (709-of-1748) and generated a crazy total of 2,127 points from 3.
Can the Suns match that?
Phoenix averaged 99.2 possessions last regular season, but in the eight regular-season games Durant played the Suns averaged 96.9.
That can be attributed to the team figuring out how to play with Durant, who came via blockbuster trade from Brooklyn right before the Feb. 9 deadline.
Durant later missed 10 games with an ankle injury sustained in pregame warmups after his first three outings with the Suns.
Last season, Booker cranked out 20.1 attempts, Durant put up 18.3 a game as he averaged 16 in those eight outings with the Suns, and Beal took 17.6 shots with the Wizards.
That’s a total of 56 shots (54.4 with Durant’s FGAs in Phoenix).
Booker will likely hoist the most this season, but Durant and Beal are coming off career-highs in shooting percentage. Durant hit 56% from the field (57% in eight games with Phoenix) and Beal shot 50.6%.
Booker also connected a career-best from the field at 49.4%, but him initiating offense may work best to find Beal and Durant as they also shot a higher percentage from 3 last season.
Durant made 40.4% of his 3s (53.7% in eight games with Phoenix).
Beal connected on 36.5% from deep while Booker hit 35.1%.
They tallied 284 made 3s for 852 points. Curry drained more 3s in 2016-17 by himself with 324 and Thompson came close at 268.
Booker and Durant are more midrange than 3-ball. Can’t see Durant shooting above 50% from 3 over the course of an 82-game season, but the Suns could use more 3s in their scoring diet.
Playmaker role
Green was coming off a career-best scoring season of 14 points per game in Golden State’s record-setting 73-win season on 10.1 attempts in 2015-16.
His scoring dipped to 10.2 in 2016-17 season on 8.6 attempts with Durant on the team, but Green’s assists went up from 3.7 to a career-best 7.4.
That uptick was a naturally a product of playing with Durant, Curry and Thompson, but the playmaker Green was born that season.
Can the Suns match that?
Durant, Beal and Booker have each averaged at least six assists in one NBA season with Beal and Booker doing so twice in their careers.
They can initiate offense, create themselves and find people, but would benefit having a player who could set them up like Green does in Golden State.
Booker appears to be the guy who’ll start the offense. His playmaker skills have improved, but this is where associate head coach Kevin Young will earn that $2 million a year he’s being paid.
The hangover from Monty Williams’ staff should play an instrumental role in designing an offense within Vogel’s team philosophy.
What will the balance be between Booker, Durant and Beal having one-on-one freedom to sharing the ball — and how much will Ayton be involved in screen-and-rolls, post-ups and face-ups with options?
Ayton attempted 13.2 shots last season. That number might drop to 10 with Beal, Booker and Durant on the floor. If he’s making seven of those and gets to the line more, Ayton can reach 18 points a night.
Usage and shots taken
Curry, Durant and Thompson led the team in usage rate at 28.6 for Curry, 27.1 for Durant and 25.8 for Thompson to combine for 81.5.
No surprise, but the key is their shot selection within that usage.
Golden State’s offense featured ball movement, player movement with Thompson having a frequency percentage of 55.1 on catch-and-shoot looks in the 2016-17 season with 41.9% coming on 3s. He averaged 11.2 attempts on zero dribbles, shot 50.5% from the field on those shots overall, 43.7% from 3.
That was significant because Curry and Durant could play more off the bounce, but the two operated a decent amount in catch-and-shoot, too.
Always in constant movement, Curry posted a frequency percentage of 29.4 on catch-and-shoot. His highest frequency was on pullup jumpers at 43.8%.
Durant’s catch-and-shoot frequency was 29.5%, but his highest frequency of 35.8% came within 10 feet.
However, their highest frequency percentage on dribbles came on zero bounces with Durant at 45.5 and Curry at 36.1. Their next highest was on 3-6 dribbles — Curry at 24.5% frequency and Durant at 19.9%.
Can the Suns match that?
Last season, Booker had a usage rate of 31.1 in the regular season, Durant was at 30.5 and Beal was at 28.8 with the Wizards.
That’s a combined 90.4, nearly 10 higher than Curry, Durant and Thompson generated in 2016-17.
Hard to imagine them reaching that same number even though Booker, Durant and Beal are going to play major minutes.
If they stay close to that total, the remaining players will have to live in mostly catch-and-shoot situations. There will be opportunities for, say, Eric Gordon to go off the dribble if the defender rushes out to contest a 3, but Booker, Durant and Beal should do most of the ball handling.
Looking at Beal’s shot dashboard last season, his highest frequency percentage came on shots within 10 feet at 43 followed by pullups at 41.5. He worked more off the bounce than catch-and-shoot.
He had a frequency of 26.8% on taking shots off 3-6 dribbles, 25.7 on 7-plus dribbles and 21.7 on zero dribbles. Those numbers could very much change playing with Booker and Durant.
Booker’s frequency was slightly higher than Beal’s last season on 3-6 dribbles at 27.7, slightly less on 7-plus dribbles at 23.4 and 16.9 on zero dribbles.
Durant could prove to be the equalizer in all of this.
His frequency percentage on 3-6 dribbles last season was 25.2%, but on 7-plus dribbles, Durant was at just 17.7.
On zero dribbles, Durant had a frequency percentage of 28.9 and shot 54.8% from the field on those overall, 43% on 3s.
Maybe Durant, not Beal, becomes the catch-and-shoot player for the Suns this season.
Have opinion about current state of the Suns? Reach Suns Insider Duane Rankin at dmrankin@gannett.com or contact him at 480-787-1240. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @DuaneRankin.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: How Suns can win NBA title with three 20-point scorers in Durant, Booker and Beal
