Stricklin is all-in on Napier, but one thing would make it impossible to keep him | Whitley
Scott Stricklin is asked a lot these days about Billy Napier’s future. His answer is the same as it was when he hired Florida’s football coach.
“I believe in Billy,” Stricklin said. “He has a track record. If you look at what he did at Louisiana and even before that with the championship teams he was a part of. I believe in him as a person.”
It would be news if Stricklin didn’t give Napier such a vote of confidence and discount “hot seat” talk. An athletic director is not going to publicly imperil his most important hire, even if he privately thinks the future is grim.
That said, I believe Stricklin truly does believe in Billy. I also believe there’s a good chance he’ll fire Florida’s football coach before the calendar strikes 2025.
A lot of factors would contribute to that decision, but it will essentially come down to two basic things.
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Math and history.
The math is 6-7 and 5-7, as in Napier’s records in his first two seasons. Throw in 2021 when the Gators went 6-7, and that’s three straight losing seasons.
The history is that Florida hasn’t had four straight losing seasons since 1935-38. If history repeats itself, fans will be looking for a scalp. All this adds up to one inescapable conclusion.
If the Gators have another losing season, Napier will be gone.
It pains me to write that since he’s the kind of guy you’d like to see succeed. And I’ve said from the start that, given the mess Napier walked into, it would take at least three years to fairly judge him and his rebuilding project.
People can’t help forming opinions along the way, however. Most about Napier are mixed at best.
You know the laundry list of issues. Historically bad defense. Erratic offense. Baffling special teams mistakes. And the most disturbing thing is not much changed from Year 1 to Year 2.
Hence the staff shakeup. Seven of Napier’s original 11 assistant coaches have left or been demoted. Most of the changes have come in the past two months, including a new team nutritionist.
The new blood is one reason why Stricklin still believes in Billy. Another is all the youthful talent that played last year. And the fact that if not for a play here (4th-and-17 at Missouri) or a missed field goal there (Arkansas), we wouldn’t be scouring the record books to find out the last time Florida fans had to endure so many losing seasons in a row.
“At the end of the day, the criticism stems from not winning enough,” Stricklin said. “So once you’re not winning, then it’s easy to start picking out the symptoms. But the cause is the record, and that’s why Billy’s taken on the responsibility to try to fix that.”
Key phrase there: The record.
The new assistants could be great. The young players could blossom. Graham Mertz could complete 99.6% of his passes. D.J. Lagway could barrel in and give everybody Tim Tebow flashbacks.
None of that will matter if there are more losses than wins at the end of the season. Neither will Napier’s $25 million buyout.
Hey, at least that’s $50 million less than what Texas A&M paid to get rid of Jimbo Fisher.
The daunting part for Napier is the team could indeed be 20% or 30% or 40% better, and the record might not show it. That’s what you get when you play the hardest schedule in the country.
Florida’s final five opponents were a combined 59-9 last season. All of them finished in the top 15.
Heck, the Gators could be the most improved team in the SEC and still be scrambling to keep their heads above water. Demanding a winning season may seem unfair, but that’s why Napier gets the big bucks and has a support staff big enough to operate an aircraft carrier.
And whatever the extenuating circumstances, this is Florida, not Vanderbilt. It would be unfair to expect a playoff bid after three years. It is not unfair to expect more wins than losses.
“At Florida, we expect to compete for championships in all our sports,” Stricklin said. “There are no exceptions to that.”
That’s as close as he’ll come to an ultimatum, though Stricklin doesn’t have to come out and say it. Math and history do the talking.
They say that it’s win or bust in 2024, no matter how much you believe in Billy.
David Whitley is The Gainesville Sun's sports columnist. Contact him at dwhitley@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @DavidEWhitley
This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Billy Napier cannot survive another losing season at Florida Football
