Statistical Breakdown: How the Cowboys and Commanders stack up in Week 4
The Dallas Cowboys will host the Washington Commanders in a battle of NFC East rivals, as both face division battles for the second week in a row. In Week 3, Washington suffered a loss against the Philadelphia Eagles while Dallas picked up a win against the New York Giants.
The 2-1 Cowboys are expecting several familiar faces to return to the lineup this week. Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and Connor McGovern are expected to return for the offense while Jayron Kearse is expected to be back on the defense. Quarterback Dak Prescott will once again be out as he recovers from a thumb injury suffered on Week 1.
Meanwhile the Commanders (1-2) have dropped two straight and will look to bounce back after a tough loss that saw QB Carson Wentz sacked nine times as the offense struggled to move the football.
Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how the teams ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.
Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) - Football Outsiders
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DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.
With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively. On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.
Information via Football Outsiders.
DVOA Offense
Passing DVOA favors the Cowboys by a significant margin. The Cowboys have a +4.3% DVOA, 17th overall, while the Commanders have a -11.6% DVOA, 27th. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush has the eighth-highest DVOA overall at 18.8%. Wentz ranks 26th at -19.8%.
The edge in rushing DVOA goes to the Cowboys by an even larger margin. The Cowboys rank fourth in the NFL at 16.2% with both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard placing in the top 10 in DVOA. The Commanders rank 25th with a -24.8%, their top RB Antonio Gibson is 32nd with a -16% DVOA.
Offensive DVOA also favors the Cowboys with a -.4%, 15th overall compared to the Commanders -18.2% DVOA.
Offensive Advantage: Cowboys
DVOA Defense
As a brief reminder, while we are looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.
Passing DVOA against favors the Cowboys by a large edge. The Cowboys rank sixth overall with a -21.4% DVOA. The Commanders rank 28th with a 30.4% DVOA allowed.
Rushing DVOA is close, however, the Commanders have a slight edge in this metric with a -5.0% rushing DVOA, three spots ahead of the Cowboys who rank 19th with a -3.5% DVOA.
The overall defensive DVOA goes to the Cowboys, ranking eighth with a -14.2% team defensive DVOA. The Commanders are quite a bit behind, ranking 29th with a 17.2% defensive DVOA.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Advantage: Cowboys (Cowboys lead 5 of the 6 categories)
Expected Points Added and Success Rate
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.
EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.
Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.
EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.
EPA: Offense
Contrasting what was seen with DVOA, EPA scores are a bit more evened out with each team winning two categories.
The offensive EPA edge goes to the Commanders with a -.047 EPA per play, ranking six spots higher than the Cowboys.
Passing EPA per play also favors the Commanders with an even 0.00 EPA, ranking eight spots higher than the Cowboys.
The advantage in rushing EPA per play goes to the Cowboys by a large margin as their .016 EPA per carry ranks 16 spots higher than the Commanders.
Success rate also favors the Cowboys at 42.6% eight spots higher than the Commanders.
Offensive Advantage: Push
EPA: Defense
While the goal is to score points on the offensive side of the ball, we are looking for the opposite from the defense. The defense’s mission is to prevent the opponent from reaching their expected point total. Therefore, we are looking for a negative number for EPA and a lower number for success rate.
The Cowboys defense has a small edge in EPA per play allowed at .003, six spots higher than the Commanders.
The Cowboys also lead in passing EPA per play with a .028, ten spots higher than the Commanders.
The Commanders have a slight advantage in rushing EPA per play, ranking 11th with a -.143 EPA. The Cowboys rank eight spots behind.
Success Rate also goes to the Commanders with a top ten finish, ranking ninth at 41.3%.
Defensive Advantage: Push
Overall Advantage: Push ( Both teams split with 4 of 8 EPA/SR categories)
Toxic Differential:Toxicity
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) is a statistic created by then Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Brian Billick. Billick realized that adding the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracting the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adding the turnover margin, was a key barometer of team success.
Under Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards. These figures were gathered by Sharp Football Stats.
Toxic Differential: Offense
The Commanders have the edge in explosive passes, generating 11 passes of 20+ yards compared to seven for the Cowboys.
The Cowboys have eight carries of 10+ yards, one more than the Commanders who have seven.
Giveaways favor the Cowboys heavily with just two total (one interception and one fumble) compared to five for the Commanders (three interceptions and two fumbles)
Adding the explosive runs and passes and then subtracting turnovers allows us to determine the offensive toxicity score.
Cowboys: 7 explosive passes+ 8 explosive runs= 15 explosive plays.
15 explosive plays – 2 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 13.
Commanders: 11 explosive passes+ 7 explosive runs= 18 explosive plays.
18 explosive plays – 5 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 13.
Offensive Advantage: Push
Toxic Differential- Defense
Both defenses have been succeptible to giving up big plays this year. The Cowboys have allowed a combined 21 explosive plays and the Commanders have allowed 23 explosive plays.
The Cowboys defense has done a great job against the pass, allowing just five 20+yard receptions on the season. The Commanders have allowed 13.
The Commanders defense has allowed ten 10+yard runs on the season which is six less than the Cowboys. Limiting explosive runs will likely be a big goal for each defense.
Neither team has generated many takeaways as the two teams combine for three on the season. The Cowboys have two, both interceptions while the Commanders have one interception. Neither team has recovered a fumble.
Cowboys: 5 explosive passes+ 16 explosive runs= 21 explosive plays.
21 explosive plays – 2 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 19 .
Giants: 13 explosive passes+ 10 explosive runs= 23 explosive plays.
23 explosive plays – 1 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 22.
Defensive Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Toxicity is determined by subtracting the defensive total from the offensive total.
Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 13 – Defense 19 = Overall Toxicity -6
Giants Toxicity: Offense 13 – Defense 22= Overall Toxicity -9
Overall Advantage: Cowboys
ANY/A
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability.
ANY/A for is a slight edge for the Cowboys. Commanders QB Carson Wentz (5.32) has thrown for 861 yards and seven scores but has been sacked 15 times and thrown three interceptions. Cowboys QB Cooper Rush (6.88) has thrown for 514 yards and two scores while taking just three sacks with no interceptions.
ANY/A against favors the Cowboys by 3.7 yards per attempt with the Cowboys stingy defense allowing just three touchdowns on the season while sacking opponents 13 times.
ANY/A differential goes to the Cowboys with a 3.98 yard difference between the two teams. This category heavily favors the Cowboys.
Advantage: Cowboys
Overall Recap
(AP Photo/Roger Steinman)
Toxicity: Cowboys (5 out of 8)
DVOA: Cowboys (5 out of 6)
EPA: Push (Both teams split 4 out of 8)
ANY/A: Cowboys (3 out of 3)
Overall: Cowboys (17 of 25)
