Spread Options: College football Week 4 picks against the spread
We've got a glorious slate of games ahead.
There are six ranked vs. ranked matchups, and that doesn't even include the ACC showdown between Florida State and Clemson.
I'm off to a slow start this season with some bad beats along the way (looking at you, Lane Kiffin), but I'm ready to turn things around and get back to picking winners.
Last week: 3-4
Overall: 9-11
No. 4 Florida State at Clemson
Time: Noon | TV: ABC | Line: FSU -2.5 | Total: 55.5
Normally this would be a spot where I’d want to play a home underdog, but I just don’t see many personnel edges for Clemson. And that includes the defensive line. Clemson has a few really good defensive backs and linebackers, but has always been heralded for its defensive front. This particular team just doesn’t have the top-end talent along the line of scrimmage in my estimation.
There are a few groups on Florida State’s defense that I think are just OK, but Clemson doesn’t have the weapons to exploit them — especially with the wide receiver group the Tigers are trotting out there on a weekly basis. On top of that, heralded QB Cade Klubnik has underwhelmed thus far as a starter, Clemson has major issues in the kicking game and the red zone offense has been bad. In a game with such a small point spread, those factors matter.
I know FSU is coming off an underwhelming performance last week at Boston College, but that game was still 31-10 late in the third quarter before things slipped away a bit. I expect a refocused effort from FSU here.
Pick: Florida State -2.5
No. 16 Oklahoma at Cincinnati
Time: Noon | TV: Fox | Line: Oklahoma -14.5 | Total: 57.5
Oklahoma I think is a team being a bit overvalued. The Sooners put up huge numbers against two of the worst teams in the FBS, Arkansas State and Tulsa, but I think they could get more of a challenge than expected vs. Cincinnati.
This is the much-anticipated Big 12 debut for the Bearcats, who are coming off an ugly overtime loss to Miami Ohio. I took Miami to cover last week but was surprised by the outright win. Digging into that game, Cincinnati moved the ball with ease but had a few turnovers and went scoreless on three red zone possessions, including having a field goal blocked and failing on fourth down twice inside the 2.
Cincinnati wants to play with a slow tempo and really lean on the running game with Emory Jones and Corey Kiner. The Bearcats also have an underrated defense, particularly up front. Nippert Stadium is a tough place to play and it’s an unfamiliar environment for Oklahoma, a team that hasn’t left its home state to this point in the season. I think Oklahoma could be in for a 60-minute battle with the Bearcats.
Pick: Cincinnati +14.5
No. 22 UCLA at No. 11 Utah
Time: 3:30 p.m. | TV: Fox | Line: Utah -4.5 | Total: 52.5
Is this the week Cam Rising finally returns at quarterback for Utah? The senior has been back at practice but hasn’t played since tearing his ACL in last season's Rose Bowl. If this is the game he makes his 2023 debut, how effective will he be? Rising’s mobility is a big part of what makes him such a great player and UCLA — which already has 11 sacks on the year — is going to go after him.
Nate Johnson will start again if Rising can’t play. Johnson is an electric athlete but hasn’t proven himself as a passer yet. Either way, I’d expect the Utes to slow the tempo and lean on Ja’Quinden Jackson and the running game.
UCLA plays at a much quicker pace, but is also a run-dependent team led by the running back duo of Carson Steele and TJ Harden. The Bruins have quickly turned to freshman Dante Moore at quarterback. Moore has the looks of a future first-round pick, but Utah has a really good defense and Rice-Eccles Stadium is a very difficult environment for a freshman’s first road conference start. This feels like a lower scoring game to me.
Pick: Under 52.5
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest
Time: 6:30 p.m. | TV: CW | Line: Wake -3.5 | Total: 59.5
Georgia Tech should have covered the spread last week vs. Ole Miss, but Lane Kiffin kept the foot on the gas and punched in another touchdown in the final minute. Despite Kiffin’s shenanigans, there was a lot to like from the Georgia Tech offense, which put up nearly 500 yards in the loss. The Yellow Jackets had a similar effort on offense in a tough Week 1 loss to Louisville.
On the other side, Wake Forest needed a big comeback to beat Old Dominion last week. It was a game where ODU had two long defensive touchdowns, so the Demon Deacons moved the ball like they always do. Even with Sam Hartman now at Notre Dame, I trust this Wake Forest system to put the points on the board needed for this game to go over the total. And after falling behind ODU on the road last week, the Demon Deacons should come out focused and firing on a porous Georgia Tech secondary.
Pick: Over 59.5
No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBC | Line: OSU -3 | Total: 55.5
There are elements offensively that I don’t trust for either team. I don’t trust Ohio State’s offensive tackles to consistently protect quarterback Kyle McCord. And I have reservations about McCord making his first prime-time road start. Notre Dame has the edge at QB with Sam Hartman, but will the Irish’s young receivers be able to get open? I’m not so sure.
It seems counterintuitive for two teams averaging more than 40 points per game, but I think this could be sort of a low-scoring game with some hard-nosed running. Ohio State has a trio of physical running backs (TreVeyon Henderson, Chip Trayanum and Miyan Williams) that should have some opportunities with the Irish keying in on OSU’s stellar receiving corps. And if Notre Dame’s receivers struggle to win in one-on-one coverage as I suspect, Notre Dame has Audric Estime, who currently leads the nation with 521 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 55.5
No. 24 Iowa at No. 7 Penn State
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: CBS | Line: PSU -14.5 | Total: 40
I’m not going to overthink this one. Iowa’s offense still isn’t good. Cade McNamara looks gimpy and the Hawkeyes will be without their best tight end and two of their best running backs while playing in one of the toughest road environments in the country.
Unless there is a special teams bust or Drew Allar throws an ugly interception, I just don’t see how Iowa can score more than 14 points against this Penn State defense. The Hawkeyes have played some terrible defenses but still somehow rank No. 109 nationally in yards per play. PSU can run the ball and utilize its backs and tight ends well in the passing game. And if No. 2 receiver Harrison Wallace returns, that will help the PSU passing game even more.
I also think Penn State will pour it on late if given the opportunity. There were some shenanigans in that PSU-Iowa game in 2021 that didn’t sit well in State College.
Pick: Penn State -14.5
Mississippi State at South Carolina
Time: 7:30 p.m. | TV: SECN | Line: South Carolina -6.5 | Total: 48.5
If this game was played last week instead of Mississippi State playing LSU and South Carolina playing Georgia, what would the spread have been? I seriously doubt it would have been this close to a touchdown.
Mississippi State has some clear deficiencies, but going against South Carolina is a much different beast than what MSU experienced vs. LSU. The Bulldogs are better than what they showed last week and can bounce back against a South Carolina team that I don't think is very good. This is more of a field goal game to me.
Pick: Mississippi State +6.5
