Sonora, Forsan matchup and other game predictions in the Week 11 Concho Valley Capstone
Game of the Week
With the conclusion of Week 10 Concho Valley High School football, this week's slate of games are right around the corner starting with a pair of six-man games: Paint Rock at Panther Creek and and Cherokee at Lohn.
With more than 40 teams in the Standard-Times coverage area set to hit the Friday night lights this week, the newest edition of the Concho Valley Capstone series will hit the ground running again for Week 11.
Sonora at Forsan
For the second year in a row, the District 3-2A Division I championship comes down to the matchup between No. 8 Sonora (9-0, 4-0) and Forsan (7-2, 3-1).
Last year, the Broncos won the matchup 48-21 and the district championship. The win propelled them into a regional semi-final matchup against eventual state champion No. 6 Hawley. While Forsan — who finished second in the division — lost to New Deal in the Area round after a 21-14 win over Stamford in the Bi-district game.
Both teams are led by their strong rushing attacks again this year. For the Broncos, their leading rusher is Edgar DeLuna who has 2,141 yards and 32 touchdowns rushing. He took on a bigger offensive role this year after quarterback Jaime Buitron was out with an injury for the first part of the season.
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Three running backs lead the way for Forsan's ground game, which totals 2,055 yards through nine games this season. Senior Kevin Kilgora has 578 yards and four touchdowns rushing, junior Huston Stockton has 505 yards and six touchdowns rushing and senior Grant Roman has 496 yards and nine touchdowns rushing.
While the Buffaloes have fewer yards on the ground this year, they have almost doubled their production in the passing game led by first-year starting quarterback Nicholas Holloway. He has 1,236 yards and 15 touchdowns passing, with his primary target wide receiver Hayden Bowlin collecting 575 yards and eight touchdowns through the air.
Sonora is coming off a dominant 46-0 win over Christoval, while Forsan snapped a seven-game winning streak in a 28-14 loss to Ozona - its second district loss in two years.
For both teams, a win means being named outright district champions, however, a loss would drop Sonora to second, while Forsan would drop to third.
Prediction: Sonora 35, Forsan 21.
San Angelo Schools
Frenship at Central
Central (1-8, 0-4) was eliminated from playoff contention last week with a 42-14 loss to Odessa Permian, which was their largest margin of defeat this season. As coach Crane said in his press conference, the Bobcats still have plenty to play for this week. Beating the Tigers (7-2, 2-2) would go a long way for a young football team that will retain a majority of its starters next season.
Prediction: Frenship 45, Central 38.
Lake View at Estacado
Like its southern neighbor, Lake View (1-8, 0-3) was also eliminated from playoff contention last week with Estacado's (7-2, 2-1) win over Big Spring. The Chiefs have a good amount of seniors on their roster and want to end the season on a high note with a good performance.
Prediction: Estacado 48, Lake View 21.
Best of the Rest
Early at TLCA San Angelo
There are a lot of playoff implications for District 2-3A Division II depending on the matchup between Early (4-5, 3-1) and TLCA San Angelo (5-4, 2-2). The Eagles punched their ticket to a second straight playoff birth last week with a 36-21 win over Ballinger, while Early dropped its chance at a district championship with a tough 69-12 loss to Wall.
If TLCA San Angelo beats Early, and Brady loses to Wall, the Eagles clinch the second spot in the district and enter the playoffs with a 6-4 overall record. If Early — favored by 15 points — beats TLCA San Angelo, they clinch second and the Eagles could finish third or fourth depending on who wins the Ballinger and Grape Creek matchup.
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The Eagles are a senior-heavy squad that can score points in a hurry with quarterback Layne Honea, who is leading the way with 2,181 yards and 26 touchdowns passing. The Longhorns have a balanced attack on offense but are led by senior running back Griffin Cheslock who has 908 yards and 12 touchdowns rushing through nine games.
Prediction: Early 32, TLCA San Angelo 27.
Cross Plains at Miles
Miles' (6-3, 2-2) comeback against Roscoe fell just short in a 33-34 loss on the road. With the loss, the Bulldogs can only get as high as third in the district even if the Plowboys drop their last game at Hamlin.
Led by senior quarterback Hayven Book — the district leader in passing yards and touchdowns — the Bulldogs aim to get back in the win column with a win over Cross Plains who currently occupies the fourth spot in the district.
Last year, Miles won this matchup 49-21 after Book threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for another three. As 29-point favorites, Miles is likely due for third in the district and another matchup against Sterling City in the first round of the playoffs.
Prediction: Miles 45, Cross Plains 25.
Grape Creek at Ballinger
Grape Creek (1-8, 1-3) won its first game since the district realignment in 2021 with a 14-point fourth-quarter comeback against Brady on Friday. With the win, the Eagles kept themselves in the playoff race in District 2-3A Division II and can make the playoffs with a win over Ballinger (0-9, 0-4) and if Brady loses to Wall.
The Bearcats beat Grape Creek last season to avoid a winless season, but could not carry the momentum into this season and have yet to win a game this year. While Ballinger struggled to score early in the season, they turned things around in the last two games scoring more than 20 points against Brady and TLCA San Angelo.
With Ballinger's recent offensive success, they enter the matchup as nine-point favorites at home. They once again have an opportunity to win the last game of the season and build some momentum into next season with a district realignment looming.
Prediction: Ballinger 28, Grape Creek 21.
Best Six-man Game of the Week
Veribest at Irion County
The 29th-ranked Hornets (7-2, 3-0) are 29-point favorites over No. 72 Veribest (8-1, 2-1).
If the Hornets win, they secure the district championship for the second year in a row and Robert Lee grabs the second playoff spot in District 13-1A Division I. If the Falcons pull off the upset on the road, there will be a three-way tie at the top of the district and the 24-point tiebreaker system will determine who makes the playoffs.
Concho Valley Power Five
Here are the best five teams regardless of class in the Concho Valley entering Week 11, along with each team's record.
Brownwood (9-1)
Sonora (9-0)
Richland Springs (10-0)
Wall (7-2)
Mason (9-0)
Sports schedule: Concho Valley high school sports schedule for Oct. 30-Nov. 4.
This article originally appeared on San Angelo Standard-Times: High school football: Week 11 Concho Valley Capstone
