RotoPat’s Seasons in Review: 2023 Recap For All 32 NFL Teams
Teams listed by draft order, minus trades.
No winning streaks. No coach. No hope. The Panthers traded up for the No. 1 overall pick in 2023. They earned it the hard way for 2024. The really bad news, as you may have heard, is that it’s being shipped to Chicago. Coming off a season where they were merely mediocre, the Panthers regressed from 20th in scoring to dead last. Having surrendered the 14th most points in 2022, that number soared to fourth in 2023. There was no tangible improvement anywhere on the roster, including under center. That’s a real problem since Bryce Young was the first player off the board in the draft. Amongst the 82 rookie quarterbacks to attempt at least 150 passes since 2000, Young’s 2.1 touchdown percentage ranked 74th. Amazingly, he was “just” 27-of-30 in EPA. Against this backdrop it’s hardly unsurprising Frank Reich became the second Panthers coach in as many years to be dismissed mid-season by impetuous, domineering owner David Tepper. It all adds up to a big ol’ “best of luck” to Reich’s replacement, Dave Canales.
The Commanders ran it back with Ron Rivera. He ran it into the ground. Not literally. The Commanders had a bottom-five quarterback situation but a top-three pass rate over expected. The result was a whole lot of unwatchable football, and an unseemly amount of sacks. It was a classic “it’s unclear what we learned here” campaign, other than Rivera probably should have been let go last year. Basking in the post-Daniel Snyder afterglow, the Cs decided to let the dust settle before settling their other affairs. Everyone knows that’s the real story here. 2024 will be the “Commanders’” first Snyder-free offseason since 1998. It’s morning again in the capital of America. It could take some time, but nothing will ever be as long as the Snyder years.
It was the era that could not stop ending. This time it counted. The Patriots’ fourth post-Tom Brady campaign was the biggest dud yet despite a defense that remained elite. What was the problem? Everything else. The quarterback. The offensive personnel. The coaching staff beyond the Big Dog. And last but not least, Bill Belichick’s stubbornness. Unwilling to make meaningful changes to the Patriots’ command structure beyond a last-minute sop to give up personnel duties, Belichick was sent packing after 24 years in New England. The man can still coach, but he would not change. Too much bad was accompanying the good on the defensive side of the ball. The Patriots, probably to their detriment, have not made a complete break with the Belichick era, instead promoting his top lieutenant Jerod Mayo to head coach. Mac Jones is one of but many anchors that remains for Mayo to wrestle out of the water. This is a situation that could easily get worse before it betters 2023’s 4-13.
Breaking in a new coach and waiting on Kyler Murray’s mid-season return, the Cardinals spent 2023 in a holding pattern, going 4-13. We didn’t learn much, though three of those four victories came with Murray under center. So did five of the losses, but the Cards were 1-8 without their quarterback. Not that Murray was stuffing the stat sheet. His yards per attempt remained under 7.0 while his touchdown percentage was stuck south of 4.0. He ranked 20-of-30 in EPA. Not disastrous, but also not worth $35.3 million guaranteed for 2024. That is nevertheless what Murray is due, so he isn’t going anywhere. It helps that expectations were nonexistent, but Jonathan Gannon’s team overachieved. There is reason for mild optimism in the desert as ex-GM Steve Keim’s roster mistakes slowly fade away and reinforcements arrive in the form of a bevy of top-100 picks, including two first-rounders.
Reeling from their 27-point choke job in the previous year’s playoffs, the Chargers never bothered to get off the bus in 2023. Although they technically started the season 4-4 with victories over Aidan O’Connell, Tyson Bagent and Zach Wilson, they would go on to win just one more game, a 6-0 triumph over … Bailey Zappe. Justin Herbert got injured one week later and the Bolts went comatose, losing their final five contests in coach-firing fashion, including a straw that broke the camel's back 63-21 catastrophe against … Aidan O’Connell. The era-ending energy was profound enough that GM Tom Telesco was sent packing along with Brandon Staley, who seemed as overwhelmed and emotionally destroyed as any coach in recent memory. The Chargers’ long-running reality is that things can always get worse, but this time they really can't. The undeniable rock bottom has arrived. Jim Harbaugh has made turning things around his career capstone project.
27. New York Giants
Please don’t instantly be better than Daniel Jones, please don’t instantly be better than Daniel Jones, please don’t instantly be better than Daniel Jones … anddddddd he’s instantly better than Daniel Jones. So was the story of the Giants’ quarterback conundrum after their $160 million man was lost for the season following five starts that produced a 1-4 record and -91 point differential. Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito provided varying degrees of spark plug effectiveness, but despite their struggles, the Giants rarely fared as poorly as they did under Jones, even managing to spring post-Thanksgiving upsets of the playoff-bound Packers and Eagles. Whatever that says about Jones’ Giants future as he rehabs a torn ACL, the Giants learned the hard way to never run back a fluke playoff appearance. Brian Daboll’s presence means the G-Men probably won’t be the worst team in the league in 2024, but the rebuild is decidedly not ahead of schedule.
26. Tennessee Titans
It was another Titans season about nothing as the era of overachievement faded further into the rear-view mirror. Not only did Mike Vrabel’s unit stop producing a sum greater than the whole of its parts, it barely even competed in one of the worst divisions in football. Contrary to the cliché, failure had many fathers. Horrendous quarterback play, a lack of difference-making defensive personnel, a running game that no longer single-handedly powered the offense. It cost Vrabel his job just two years after he had the Titans operating as the No. 1 seed. That seemed rash, but quick fixes appear unlikely for 2024. The Titans were probably just conducting tomorrow’s business today. With Derrick Henry on the way out and third-degree Sean McVay disciple Brian Callahan on the way in, a new identity is about to take shape.
25. Atlanta Falcons
Arthur Smith burned the boats. In a courageous if foolhardy pique of principle, Art stared his adversary in the eye and said: It’s either you or me. On the one hand there was Smith and his now infamous “if you think the good players are getting the ball, you’ve got another thing coming” offense. On the other there was … “Uhhh, ok? Why exactly? What point is even being proven here? You know you don’t have to do this?” Another wasted lottery skill pick later, the Falcons saw their points decline from an already mediocre 365 in 2022 to 321, and their point differential balloon from -21 to -52. Smith somehow managed to keep his 7-10 dignity — Jeff Fisher for the 17-game era — but he was fired all the same. Smith leaves behind an on-the-rise defense and plenty of weapons. It’s the kind of roster that could take off if new coach Raheem Morris unties the hand that has been behind this offense’s back for three years now.
24. Chicago Bears
The Bears got better across the board, improving from 3-14 to 7-10 while goosing their point differential from -137 to -19. They finished on a 5-3 run and went 3-2 after their bye, defeating playoff-bound Detroit in the process. So why does this all feel so complicated? Because Justin Fields failed to take a step forward as a passer, watching his touchdown percentage decline and his already gaudy sack rate increase. Fields’ play-making ability remained unique. He continued to rip big plays as a runner and struck up a special connection with DJ Moore, but he answered the Bears’ biggest question — is he clearly better than a potential No. 1 pick? — in the negative one year after the equation was positive. Fields’ second chance went the same way as the first. As a result, the Bears are back at square one at sports’ most important position even as the progress was real everywhere else.
23. New York Jets
It wouldn’t be entirely accurate to say the Jets’ season ended after only one pass attempt, but you could say it never really began as heroic defensive and skill player efforts were wasted by Gang Green’s unserious attempts to replace Aaron Rodgers. How exactly was Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle (and Trevor Siemian) the plan B for this “quarterback or bust” roster? You might have to ask Rodgers’ ego. Or maybe it really was just more poor planning from a GM in Joe Douglas whose few notable victories — Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson come to mind — are outweighed by his failure to accumulate talent in too many important places, most notably the offensive line. Robert Saleh’s season-long thousand-yard stare didn’t exactly imbue confidence on the sideline, either, but he again handled his business on the defensive side of the ball. Hope remains for 2024, but this project is hanging by the threads of Rodgers’ surgically-repaired Achilles’ tendon.
The Vikings had four players start at least two games at quarterback and still entered Week 18 with an outside shot at making the playoffs. Maybe that’s an indictment of a 14-team field, but it was quite an accomplishment for second-year head coach Kevin O’Connell, who seemed to rise above the NFL’s current “system” obsession and make the main thing the main thing: Just get your best players the ball. That’s how Justin Jefferson cleared 1,000 yards despite missing seven games. How T.J. Hockenson earned a career-high 960 yards in 15 appearances. How this team was watchable at all with Josh Dobbs, Jarren Hall and Nick Mullens taking turns spelling Kirk Cousins. Now, you could argue O’Connell’s style — throw first, think later — was too simplistic and all too ready to accommodate empty passing stats, but even that has become a lost art in a league veering back toward the defensive side of the ball. Which brings us to Brian Flores, who coordinated a scarily good defense after the season’s first month. The Vikings seem constitutionally incapable of not being a high-wire act, but they should remain fun to watch whether or not free-agent-to-be Cousins returns for 2024.
21. Denver Broncos
Sean Payton, it doesn’t matter how many times you send your old friend Darkness straight to voicemail: The call is getting through either way. By Week 7, Payton had already endured every kind of loss there is to suffer. For Weeks 1 and 2 there were the slow-drip setbacks against inferior Raiders and Commanders teams. For Week 3 there was the “not ready for prime time” 70-20 fiasco against the Dolphins. For Week 5 there was the mortifying “revenge game” loss to Jets assistant Nathaniel Hackett, whom Payton had recently christened the “worst coach of all time.” For Week 6 there was the surprisingly competitive but ultimately agonizing defeat to the Chiefs. The Broncos were better from there on out, but the cake was already baked. The price Payton paid for competence was also the complete neutering of quarterback Russell Wilson, a player he threatened to bench if he did not redo his contract. Wilson called Payton’s bluff and refused, but it’s all window dressing anyways. Payton is stuck here. Wilson is not. We’ve already seen the worst Payton has to offer. The Broncos better pray his promising but fruitless 7-4 stretch run isn’t the best.
Rarely is an ending so definitive. The Raiders kept the Lions within two scores for the entirety of their 26-14, Week 8 loss, but the sense of finality oozed off the screen. Jimmy Garoppolo, who looked like he was letting the ocean waves sweep him away as he took six sacks and completed only 10 passes, didn’t want to be there. Josh McDaniels, who won nine times in 25 games in Vegas after doing so 11 times in 28 games in Denver, wouldn’t be there much longer. McDaniels was fired the next day as Garoppolo was benched, and, just like that, Raiders players started openly talking about how they enjoyed playing football again. They had a cigar party after their Week 9 victory over the Giants and became a reliable stretch-run nuisance, finishing 5-4 after starting 3-5. That included a Christmas Day victory over eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City. The new tone was set by interim coach Antonio Pierce, but it was the absence of McDaniels that told the true tale. The Broncos began their Peyton Manning mini-dynasty after casting McDaniels aside. Whatever a now full-time Pierce has in store next is going to be better than what Josh was providing.
The post-Drew Brees holding pattern muddled on into its third season as Sean Payton flunky Dennis Allen again proved unable or unwilling to adjust the team’s approach even as its two great men receded further into the distance. The lone big offseason gambit, Derek Carr, proved nearly indistinguishable from primary 2022 signal caller Andy Dalton. He did oversee two more victories, but at no point was this a team you were uncomfortable facing. That’s despite the fact they nearly snuck into the playoffs. Had they done so, they undoubtedly would have done their Steelers duty and quietly returned home, prompting questions of why we have the seventh seed to begin with. Now descending into depths of salary cap hell we barely knew existed, 2023 has the chance to be something of an Allen high-water mark. Seemingly forever due, the bill has finally arrived.
You probably aren’t going to make the playoffs when you have a first-time head coach and your rookie quarterback suffers a season-ending injury in Week 5. And yet there the Colts were, needing only a Week 18 victory over the Texans to sneak back into the postseason tournament they had been absent from for two years. It wasn’t meant to be, as a Texans team with its own first-time head coach and rookie QB eked out the road victory in Indy. Houston’s future couldn’t be brighter. Indy’s is a little cloudier. Including his season-ending shoulder ailment, Anthony Richardson suffered three unique injuries. Despite his immense upside, Richardson will begin 2024 as the clear No. 3 quarterback in a division that includes C.J. Stroud and Trevor Lawrence. The QB was ahead of schedule in 2023, but the goal now is to simply stay on schedule — and the field. If he can do so, AFC South fans could be settling in for a decade of Stroud/Richardson, Steichen/Ryans duels.
17. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks repeated their 2022, just with 43 fewer points. That might not seem like the world’s biggest decline, but it was the difference between the playoffs and the golf course. Between sustaining one of the longest coaching tenures in recent history and sending Pete Carroll home. That seems harsh, but Seahawks management evidently didn’t see the value in running back the same Carroll/Geno Smith plan a third time in 2024. Tough scenes for a coach who had just three losing seasons in 14 years, only twice posting a negative point differential. Carroll was the kind of coach who imprinted his identity on the entire organization. Now a team with middling talent on defense and uncertainty on offense faces the very real prospect of a “wilderness” period. Pete would have smiled and said he knew the way out. They don’t make ‘em like that anymore. Well, that’s not entirely accurate: They never have. Carroll was one of a kind. His replacement — former Ravens DC Mike Macdonald — will have to fight to be more than a face in the Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay NFC West crowd.
As we learned with the Seahawks, there are different degrees of 9-8. Sometimes you advance to the Divisional Round. Others, you lose to the 5-11 Titans in Week 18. That devastating loss knocked the Jags out of the postseason, not that they deserved to be there. They scored fewer points than 2022, allowed more, and won only three times after their Week 9 bye. How do you go from 8-3 to out of the playoffs? Your promised one quarterback regressing instead of getting better in year three doesn’t help. Trevor Lawrence found himself sandwiched between Mac Jones and Josh Dobbs in completion rate over expected and amongst the league leaders in interception percentage. Lawrence did not fall off a cliff, but he still hasn’t proven he’s ready to put an offense on his back. Whether or not he will ever do so has become the only question that matters for a franchise dying to move on from the abyss for good.
The Bengals won nine times in a season where Joe Burrow was truly healthy for four, maybe five games. He appeared in only 10 and finished just nine. It made for a showcase for Zac Taylor’s underrated leadership and play-calling abilities, proving the Bengals’ resurgence hasn’t been solely about one man. But what a man he is. There is zero question Cincinnati would have made the playoffs had Burrow stayed healthy. The trick, as always, will be doing so moving forward. The 27-year-old burned both ends of the injury candle in 2023, and has now missed six-plus games in 2-of-4 seasons. He takes a lot of hits and shows little regard for his body. Finding a better balance between play-maker and sack-avoider will determine just how long this team’s Super Bowl window remains open. The Bengals have enough weapons on both sides of the ball and brainpower on the sidelines to get Burrow back to the Super Bowl as early as 2024-25.
14. Los Angeles Rams
It was a tale of two seasons — and two receivers — as the Rams returned to the playoffs, limiting their Super Bowl hangover to one season. It didn’t look that way at the start. Missing Cooper Kupp and shuffling about in their backfield, the Rams began the year 3-6. They closed on a 7-1 heater, finally nursing Kupp back to full health as fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua took the league by storm. Kyren Williams also settled matters in the running game, finishing third in the league in rushing despite missing five contests. None of it would have been possible without Aaron Donald continuing to dominate and Matthew Stafford surprisingly returning to form down the stretch. With Donald and Stafford aging as coach Sean McVay’s staff was again stripped for parts following the season, this remains a team in transition despite 2023’s appearance of a turned corner.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 was the Steelers’ greatest playoff heist yet, as they went from 7-7 with almost no shot at qualifying to 10-7 and in following victories over three .500-plus teams. Yes, the last was a Ravens squad resting its starters, but Mike Tomlin once again made the impossible possible, even if his guys didn’t do it style. The only postseason team with a negative point differential, the Steelers found themselves riding Mason Rudolph. The No. 3 quarterback hardly had the looks of a different player since the last time he started at least three games in 2019, but he was visibly better than tottering second-year pro Kenny Pickett. Rudolph helped prove George Pickens isn’t a bust, and that even marginally better QB play could keep Diontae Johnson relevant. All of this occurred following the firing of sideways OC Matt Canada. Once the stretch-run adrenaline wore off after a surprisingly competitive Wild Card game against the Bills, the overall effect was more questions than answers. What is the future of this offense, and why is it now in the hands of Arthur Smith? Only 2024 will tell.
12. Miami Dolphins
It’s pretty simple: The Dolphins averaged 18 points against teams that made the playoffs and 35 vs. those that didn’t. Playing Dallas, Baltimore, Buffalo and Kansas City to end the season, Miami mustered 62 total points for an average of 16. It’s good to beat up on bad competition. It’s bad to never level up. The ingredients are here to do so. The Dolphins’ overall point total of 496 was good for second in the league, and an improvement of 99 on 2022. It was made possible by Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, Tyreek Hill staying dominant, and De’Von Achane announcing his presence. Already on the cutting edge as a first-time head coach the year prior, Mike McDaniel was even more so in season two. His assignment for 2024 will be bridging the gap between Broncos dominations and Bills humiliations. His attack can’t be quite so fragile. For instance, Achane was the No. 2 back. Your offense can’t stall off the highway when the change-of-pace runner gets injured, even if the pace is the league’s best. McDaniel has the brainpower to figure it out. This remains one of the league’s most intriguing going-forward teams.
The concept of the “Super Bowl hangover” has faded in recent times. The early-century staple of the big-game loser failing to even make the playoffs the following season has come true just one time in the past seven years. For a time, the 2023 Eagles looked like the most furious resister of the cliché thus far. 10-1 after consecutive wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills, the Birds marched into a Week 12 matchup with the 49ers in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. They lost 42-19, and would win just one more game the rest of the season. An already-foundering defense sunk to the bottom, while the once-vaunted offense became listless and injury-marred. The situation grew so dire that head coach Nick Sirianni turned to Matt Patricia at defensive coordinator. The result was the opposition scoring at an even more furious pace. The collapse was as comprehensive as you will ever see in sports. Sirianni has kept his job only after jettisoning both coordinators. That tends to be the last refuge of an about-to-be-fired head coach. Consider Sirianni’s seat scorching at this franchise crossroads.
10. Cleveland Browns
For the second time in as many years, “franchise player” Deshaun Watson made only six starts. Season-ender, right? Not on Myles Garrett’s watch. The Browns’ defensive superstar had his finest campaign yet, coasting to first-team All-Pro honors and earning his long-overdue Defensive Player of the Year trophy. When you have that kind of defensive linchpin, it makes it easier for, say, oh, 38-year-old Joe Flacco to come in and go 4-1 at quarterback as the Browns finished with a 4-0 flourish (before a Week 18 exhibition) to head back to the postseason for the first time since 2020. That’s where the party abruptly stopped in Houston, but it scarcely detracted from one of the most satisfying Browns campaigns of the 21st century. That’s where the bad news comes in, as it proves how low the bar still is in Cleveland. Excellent coach Kevin Stefanski also seemed to take the loss personally, ruthlessly churning his offensive staff. Stefanski’s surprising purge almost certainly came with his eye on the franchise’s biggest issue: Somehow getting Watson back to his pre-suspension play. He has yet to come close, and as his quarterback’s body clock ticks closer to 30, Stefanski’s patience could prove to be short if his offseason desperation is any indication.
9. Dallas Cowboys
What does it mean to be a Dallas Cowboy? Pain. Only pain. It doesn’t matter how many times Jerry Jones has been kicked in the groin since his last NFC Championship Game appearance in 1996. He hasn’t gotten used to days like the Cowboys’ 48-32 Wild Card loss to the Packers as the No. 2 seed. This being Jones, he could still talk about it. “This is one of my (biggest) surprises since I’ve been involved in sport, period,” the shell-shocked owner said afterward. To the impartial observer, Jones’ words rang both true and false. True because a No. 2 seed simply should not get vaporized at home the way Dallas did, falling behind 27-7 at halftime and 41-16 in the third quarter. False because, well, this is just how Cowboys football has gone this century. The Star has never lacked for stars. Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, CeeDee Lamb and DaRon Bland were amongst the league’s brightest in 2023. But it can’t help but feel surface level when, time and again, this franchise crumbles at the first sign of adversity. One Packers coin toss win and subsequent touchdown drive should never feel so ominous. Those kinds of innocuous happenings will continue to seem like dark portents until this team finally exorcises its demons.
8. Green Bay Packers
NFC North fans will never forget those two months where it appeared the Packers didn’t have a decade-plus answer at quarterback. The Pack could have missed the playoffs after their 6-2 finish and it still would have been an excellent campaign. Instead they snuck in, ambushed the Cowboys, and put the fear of God into the 49ers. At the center of it all was Jordan Love, who started to look like an MVP candidate in November and December as he completed 70 percent of his passes and posted an 18:1 TD:INT ratio over his final eight starts. Although Love lacks Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers’ arm strength, he appears to be a born playmaker, one who does not need to set his feet. Paired with the most underrated coach in football in Matt LaFleur, Love looks ready to do something special over these next 10-15 years.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa lost the best player in league history and became a better team. Unlike their final season with Tom Brady, the Bucs: 1. Posted a winning record. 2. Produced a positive point differential. 3. Won a playoff game. All of this with Baker Mayfield under center. Left for dead by the Panthers before being revived by Sean McVay, Mayfield’s latest career reversal defined the Bucs’ season. Now it will define their offseason with Mayfield and Mike Evans headed to free agency. Was 2023 the dead cat bounce for a fading dynasty? Or a baseline from which to refresh? It’s one of 2024’s highest-stakes decisions.
6. Houston Texans
Lovie Smith knew what he was doing. The Texans’ pair of final-drive, 4th-and-10 conversions to defeat the Colts in Week 18 2022-23 had the makings of the biggest pyrrhic victory in NFL history. With the win came the loss of the No. 1 overall pick. The Panthers got Bryce Young. The Texans got the best young player in the NFL. Although he had to overcome a shoddy running game and overly conservative play-calling, C.J. Stroud willed the Texans to the playoffs all by himself. At least until the Divisional Round, the young man put the team on his shoulders at all the most important moments. He was, of course, helped along by No. 3 overall pick and fellow rookie of the year Will Anderson. It turns out Houston didn’t need the No. 1 selection to make the two best decisions of the draft. Pairing that franchise-altering haul with one of the best young coaches in football, DeMeco Ryans, hasn’t just restored hope to this wayward ball club, it has made them a dark horse Super Bowl contender for 2024.
5. Buffalo Bills
The Bills were back. It just depended on what you were talking about. After their 21-14, Week 18 victory over the Dolphins, they were back to the No. 2 seed after sitting at 6-6 and on the outside looking in at the playoffs. After their 27-24, Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs, they were back where they always are: At home for the Super Bowl. The Bills surmounted a lack of offensive weapons and a wave of defensive injuries. They simply couldn’t get past Mr. Patrick Mahomes, who benefitted from the most unwanted callback in Buffalo history, a wide right field goal attempt that officially sent the Bills packing. The familiar ending followed a chaotic campaign where OC Ken Dorsey was fired mid-season and head coach Sean McDermott apologized for … favorably citing the 9/11 hijackers in what he wanted to be an inspirational pre-game speech? It was McDermott who should have gone. This team seems maxed out under his leadership. Instead he remains and the plan will be the same as always: Put the team on Josh Allen’s back and see what happens.
4. Detroit Lions
The best Lions season in 32 years had a whole greater than the sum of its parts. They didn’t have a good defense but limited the damage by allowing 28-plus points only three times. They didn’t have an elite quarterback but passed for the second most yards in football. They passed on big-ticket free agent signings but drafted three instant contributors in the first 45 picks. They didn’t have the best team but were 1-2 bounces away from going to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Dan Campbell’s sauce is so special he convinced sought-after head-coaching candidate Ben Johnson to remain in Detroit for another season. It’s fair to wonder if this experiment is maxed out under Jared Goff, but hell, it was fair to wonder that last spring, too. The Lions’ first window of legitimate contention in three decades might not produce a Super Bowl victory — the sad fate of nearly all great NFL teams — but something is happening in Motown.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens got over the hump only to find a new one. Searching for their first championship game appearance of the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens’ EPA death star got there only to be disabled by Patrick Mahomes’ fully-operational battle station. The Ravens were the betting favorites — they had dismantled fellow Super Bowl favorite San Francisco just one month prior — but didn’t appear ready for the Mahomes big leagues. That was true of not only Jackson — his back-breaking second half pick was his worst throw of the season — but the coaching staff, which abandoned the run at the first sign of trouble and made things too easy for a Chiefs team that doesn’t need any extra breaks. Continuing on in Ozzie Newsome’s gilded tradition, GM Eric DeCosta has made sure this roster is ready to compete for years to come even if it continues to have wide receiver deficiencies. The Ravens will be back in 2024. But so will Mahomes. The Ravens’ plan B needs to be better than their AFC Championship Game Plan A.
2. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have long since won over every last computer. They’ve damn near won every game, too. They just can’t bag the big one. Is it because they don’t have the big one? It would seem silly to suggest coach Kyle Shanahan needs a truly elite quarterback to win the Super Bowl. After all, he’s essentially held the trophy in his hands three times in the past eight seasons. But there he is getting stymied, first by Tom Brady then Patrick Mahomes. No matter how much talent he accumulates — five first-team All-Pros in 2023 alone — the scheme can never download the final one percent of the update. Shanny, of course, admitted as much when he daringly, recklessly traded up for Trey Lance in 2021. The results were disastrous but the decision sound. The scheme can only go so far. Someone needs to put it over the top. Brock Purdy has come close. He’s also unlikely to get any closer. The 49ers should get one last run of the experiment in 2024 before the salary cap comes calling.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Chiefs won fewer than 12 games. They scored 371 points, good for 15th in the league and 80 fewer than they had ever managed with the chosen one. Enter their third Super Bowl win in five years. How did this happen? A defense that never once allowed more than 28 points, one of only three to surrender under 300 on the season. The chosen one also chose when to elevate, namely the playoffs. Mahomes was nearly mistake-free during Kansas City’s absurd gauntlet through Miami, Buffalo, Baltimore and San Francisco. Defense and well-timed play-making can be a fragile formula, but neither Mahomes nor DC Steve Spagnuolo’s unit ever slipped up when it truly mattered. You shouldn’t have to work this hard when you have Mahomes, and it’s possible this level of effort and focus will never again be required. But the fact that this kind of grind-it-out, execution-based football is in the repertoire for a team that spent much of the past five years in easy mode is a scary proposition for the rest of the league.
