Record projections for every college football team this season
Clemson will win the ACC. Ohio State will take back the Big Ten. Alabama and Georgia will meet to decide the SEC.
Right?
Among the few certain things in an uncertain Football Bowl Subdivision, picking these four national powers to be front and center in the College Football Playoff race seems way too logical to second guess. That's even as maybe a dozen others will enter September with the legitimate goal of reaching the national semifinals and playing for the national championship.
It gets more difficult from there. Who will win the American and earn the Group of Five's automatic bid to the New Year's Six bowl slate? Which team will take home the top-heavy Mountain West? Is Southern California a real threat in the Pac-12?
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As the regular season inches toward kickoff, here's how USA TODAY Sports predicts the team-by-team records and final standings in the FBS conferences.
Note: Team appear in order of finish in conference or division.
American Athletic
Atlantic Coast Conference
Big Ten
Big 12
Conference USA
Mountain West
Sun Belt
American Athletic
Houston takes over from Cincinnati as the team to beat in the American and the favorite to capture a New Year’s Six bid. The Cougars miss the Bearcats and Central Florida in conference play and could make a run at an unbeaten regular season. All three rank near the top of the list in the Group of Five. East Carolina has turned a corner under coach Mike Houston and will be a factor in the conference race. Tulane has the quarterback and coaching to bounce back after a two-win 2021 season. In the bottom half of the league, teams like Temple and South Florida simply don’t have the personnel to match up with the American’s best.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Clemson reclaims front-runner status in the ACC, but it’s not by much. The Tigers can create some additional space by getting a big year out of quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who had a miserable 2021 season, and by not missing a beat on defense after losing longtime coordinator Brent Venables. Right in tow is North Carolina State, which may be on the verge of a special season. It’s unknown how long Wake Forest will be without quarterback Sam Hartman, making the Demon Deacons harder to peg after last year’s division championship. Mario Cristobal could get Miami to the top of the Coastal in his debut season. It’s safer to pick last year’s winner, Pittsburgh, or to bet on a rebound from coach Mack Brown and North Carolina.
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Big Ten
Only the SEC can match the Big Ten’s depth. Beyond Ohio State, perhaps the preseason favorite for the national championship, the East has Michigan, a resurgent Penn State, fast-rising Michigan State and a possible spoiler in Maryland. At just 11-11 in the past two seasons, the Nittany Lions could match that win total in 2022 alone should everything go according to plan. The West lacks top-tier playoff contenders but has up to five teams with the potential to claim the division. Wisconsin and Iowa are the co-favorites, followed by Nebraska, Minnesota and Purdue. An easier schedule and the addition of several impressive transfers should land the Cornhuskers in the seven-win range, although another losing season would surprise no one.
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Big 12
Venables will enter his first year with Oklahoma as the Big 12 favorites, but the Sooners’ offseason coaching change and a reworked roster has left the conference open to a crowded group of preseason contenders. One is Baylor, should new quarterback Blake Shapen find his footing in the starting role. Fresh off last winter’s Fiesta Bowl win and with the roster to justify plenty of hype, Oklahoma State may be undone by a schedule that sends the Cowboys on the road against OU, Baylor and Kansas State. The Wildcats have one of the nation’s best backs in Deuce Vaughn and an upgrade at quarterback in transfer Adrian Martinez. Is Kansas destined for another last-place finish? Don’t look now, but the Jayhawks are rising fast under coach Lance Leipold.
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Conference USA
Naming offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent as former coach Bill Clark’s interim replacement will promote continuity and keep Alabama-Birmingham on track to recapture the Conference USA crown. One of last year’s darlings, Texas-San Antonio has a rough-and-tumble non-conference slate and may top out at eight wins in the regular season. Western Kentucky’s passing game will remain potent but should take a step back due to changes at quarterback and receiver. One breakout candidate is Rice, which has been steadily building a contender under coach Mike Bloomgren. And keep an eye on Texas-El Paso, even if the Miners don’t get the benefit of the doubt in these projections. The program has made huge strides under coach Dana Dimel.
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Independents
The Marcus Freeman era gets started with a bang with Notre Dame's season opener against Ohio State. A loss there may set a sour tone for his tenure but won't derail the Fighting Irish from reaching the New Year's Six. A much stouter schedule consisting of four teams ranked in the preseason USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll will keep BYU from getting back to double-digit wins. This season will tell just how much of Liberty's recent success was due to former quarterback Malik Willis. Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Mexico State represent the worst there is to offer in the FBS.
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Mid-American
As was the case last season, it's not hard to see a scenario where the entire West division reaches bowl eligibility. Central Michigan looks like the best of a very good bunch, but only if the Chippewas can address lingering questions about the state of the offensive line. If CMU slips, look for one of Toledo, Northern Illinois or rival Western Michigan to grab the division title. To the East, Miami holds a slight lead over Kent State. But the RedHawks are unproven on defense, leaving quarterback Brett Gabbert and the offense responsible for the heavy lifting. Ohio and Buffalo are just behind this pair but could easily rise to the top of the division.
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Mountain West
Boise State will rebound from a 7-5 finish in coach Andy Avalos' debut and be the Mountain West's top contender for a New Year's Six bowl. But don't sleep on Air Force; the Falcons are one of the nation's most underrated teams and a threat to win 10 or more games during the regular season. The MWC has a strong middle class of teams, including Utah State and San Jose State, and a number of teams near the bottom of the entire FBS, led by UNLV and rebuilding Hawaii. But in addition to the Broncos and Falcons, look for Fresno State and San Diego State to contend for Top 25 honors.
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Pac-12
There are few sure things about the suddenly division-free Pac-12 beyond the consensus that Arizona and Colorado will bring up the rear. At the top, Utah has earned a place among the small and elite group of Power Five teams with legitimate playoff hopes. But that could be easily undone by the Top 25 teams nipping at the Utes' heels. One is Oregon, a perennial New Year's Six contender with equally lofty goals under new coach Dan Lanning. UCLA has what it takes to play for the Pac-12 title after slowly developing a quality roster under Chip Kelly. And few teams in the Power Five will draw as many eyeballs as USC, thanks to the unexpected addition of former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley and sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams.
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SEC
It would be to absolutely zero surprise to see the nation's top conference once again send two teams to the playoff. Will one be Alabama, the preseason No. 1 in the Coaches Poll? The Crimson Tide tout the reigning Heisman Trophy winner (Bryce Young) and the nation's most impactful player (Will Anderson). October's must-see matchup with Texas A&M will determine the SEC West. An exodus of talent to the NFL may have accompanied Georgia's national championship, but that won't stop the Bulldogs from dominating the East and making a major case for the top four. Keep an eye on Tennessee, however, after the Volunteers' solid start under coach Josh Heupel. Another three or four teams will compete for a permanent home in the Top 25, namely Kentucky, Ole Miss and Arkansas. One intriguing team to watch is South Carolina, thanks to offseason additions such as former Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler.
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Sun Belt
The defining storyline of the Sun Belt season is the addition of Southern Miss, Old Dominion and Marshall from Conference USA and James Madison's move up from the Championship Subdivision. Of this group, the Thundering Herd may be the safest pick to contend for seven or more wins. The conference is ruled by three teams: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina and Louisiana-Lafayette. Coastal's offense will put up crooked numbers behind quarterback Grayson McCall. Troy and Texas State are underdogs capable of taking down Louisiana, especially given the Ragin' Cajuns' offseason coaching change and losses to the transfer portal.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football record projections for every FBS team in 2022
