Realignment Will Put 12-Team College Football Playoff to the Test
Happy Wednesday, SporticoU readers! With the MLB playoffs underway, we’re thinking ahead to a different postseason…
The College Football Playoff (CFP) expands to 12 teams next season, tripling the size of the field and requiring a brand-new format for both selection and bracketing. But in the face of the conference realignment craze sweeping across college football, is that agreed-on format already out of date?
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As it stands under the 12-team edition, the six highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids into the field. The other six spots will be at-large bids given to the remaining highest-ranked teams by the selection committee (yes, this means Notre Dame and other independents can only be chosen as an at-large). There’s another twist to the benefit of being a league champion: The four highest-ranked champs will receive an automatic bye to the CFP quarterfinals, skipping the four matchups of the first round (No. 5 vs. No. 12, No. 6 vs. No. 11, No. 7 vs. No. 10 and No. 8 vs. No. 9).
Having six automatic bids for conference champs was envisioned to ensure each Power Five league has a seat at the table, plus the highest-ranked Group of Five champ. But that was decided in a world where the Pac-12 was not down to two teams—before Oregon and Washington announced they would depart for the Big Ten and before Colorado, Arizona, Utah and Arizona State decided to head to the Big 12. Add in previously announced Power Five realignment—Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC; USC and UCLA to the Big Ten; Houston, UCF, BYU and Cincinnati to the Big 12—and you’re not only looking at the Power Five becoming a Power Four, but also very likely a college football Super Two (SEC and Big Ten).
Last week, ESPN reported that if the Pac-12 is indeed disbanded next season, there is a “strong preference” among the CFP voting commissioners for the six autobids, six at-large bids format to be changed to five autobids and seven at-large slots. But discussions have been tabled for the time being, per ESPN, and for a change to take effect for the 2024 season it would require unanimous vote. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco has already gone on record against changing the current format for ‘24.
Aresco wanting to keep six autobids makes sense. Without the Pac-12, such a format would ensure two Group of Five conferences make the playoff field (and even if one of those leagues were a rebuilt Pac-12 filled in with Mountain West teams, most would no longer consider it a power conference). After the exit of three of its top programs (Cincinnati, Houston and UCF), the AAC is far from a guarantee to be home to the highest-ranked Group of Five team, but two slots would make its path to the playoff easier. Getting a team into the CFP means more money and more national attention for not just that program but its conference as a whole.
Meanwhile, as college football careens toward being shaped around two superconferences (eight of this week’s AP top 10 teams will be in either the Big Ten or SEC next season), is the idea of reserving five or six spots to conference champions almost … antiquated? In a sport steeped in tradition, surely there are fans who will stick to the belief that winning your league matters most. And they certainly have an argument … but how much should it really be held against you if you lose in the championship game of a division-less, 18-team Big Ten that features Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Washington and USC?
The Power Five was already unbalanced: In the four-team CFP era, the SEC has led the way with 11 appearances, winning six of the nine national titles. The Big Ten and ACC have each had eight CFP teams, while the Big 12 (five) and Pac-12 (two) have had just seven appearances combined, with two wins. Now, the SEC is adding the Big 12 program (Oklahoma) that earned four of those five trips, and the Big Ten is adding both Pac-12 programs (Oregon and Washington) that have made it.
An expanded College Football Playoff will make the sport’s postseason far more accessible, but the impact of a supersized SEC and Big Ten is one to watch closely. There are major financial reasons (CFP appearance prize money, conference championship game revenue) for the non-SEC and non-Big Ten commissioners to maintain a system where winning their league title is rewarded, even if it means a higher-ranked team gets seeded lower in the playoff bracket. But a spread-out autobid system might not be enough to bring true parity to the sport–at least, beyond more SEC and Big Ten teams getting a shot at the title.
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