Ranking the potential CFP championship scenarios
Four teams remain in the hunt for college football’s national championship, and that means there are eight possible scenarios for this season’s outcome. In the mix, you’ve got a couple of clear villains: Michigan, still embroiled in a sign-stealing scandal, and Alabama, the favorite of the establishment that bounced Florida State from the playoff. You’ve got a risen-from-the-ashes Texas squad and a cracking-the-old-boy-network Washington team.
Here are all eight, ranked by an arcane formula that combines skill sets, storylines and good, old-fashioned gut feelings — you know, just like every college football ranking system. Let’s begin:
8. Alabama defeats Washington
All-time head-to-head record: The Huskies and Tide have played five times over the course of 90 years, and Alabama has won all five, most recently in the 2016 CFP Semifinal.
How it would go down: There’s no answer for Jalen Milroe right now. There’s only minimizing the damage he can do. If Milroe runs free and Michael Penix Jr. isn’t able to move the ball enough against Alabama’s secondary, this could be a long night en route to Washington’s sixth straight loss to Alabama. This is likely to be the highest-scoring matchup of any of these eight, which means it’s down to who can get the bigger stop in the bigger moment. Ride with the guy who has been here before.
The postgame narrative: Not only is the Saban dynasty not dead. It’s not even breathing hard.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +625, per BetMGM
7. Texas defeats Michigan
All-time head-to-head record: The Longhorns and Wolverines have played just once, with Texas winning 38-37 in the 2005 Rose Bowl.
How it would go down: Michigan hasn't seen a defensive front like Texas’. Honestly, no one has. The Longhorns clog the middle, hand out tackles-for-losses like Halloween candy and force Michigan into game-wrecking decisions, exactly the same way they did against Alabama. On the other side of the ball, Quinn Ewers does what no one in the Big Ten could: pick apart the Michigan defense.
The postgame narrative: Texas wins plenty of deserved acclaim, but the real narrative centers on Michigan’s inability to get it done in the playoffs … and whether sign-stealing might've helped the Wolverines.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +550
6. Michigan defeats Washington
All-time head-to-head record: The Huskies and Wolverines have played 13 times, with Michigan winning eight, including a 50-0 whomping in 1953.
How it would go down: Michigan’s passing defense ranks second in the country for a reason and smothers Penix to neutralize Washington’s greatest asset.
The postgame narrative: Doesn’t matter who Michigan beats or how, there’ll be an asterisk on the season for everyone outside Ann Arbor. Fair? Unfair? Won’t matter. There are still people convinced that Michigan Man Tom Brady won seven rings just by cheating.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +525
5. Washington defeats Alabama
How it would go down: If Iron Bowl Alabama — pre-fourth-and-31 — shows up at any time in this postseason, it’ll be a quick out for the Tide. Washington can pile on points in a blink and could go up double digits before the first quarter is done. Alabama has experience this season overcoming deficits, but a fully functioning Washington offense builds a wall too high for the Tide to climb.
The postgame narrative: The Pac-12 gets in one last championship over a legacy team … and then vanishes. The perfect college football ending.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +1400.
4. Michigan defeats Texas
How it would go down: Texas has faced some tough RBs but nothing quite like Blake Corum. He’ll test the Longhorns line like no one before him. And if you can’t go through Texas’ defensive line, go over them. J.J. McCarthy has the game of his life, and Michigan’s receivers level up, neutralizing Texas’ best asset and putting up points the Longhorns can’t match.
The postgame narrative: By the transitive property, Michigan has beaten every team in the playoff and most in the top 10. The Wolverines’ arrogance will ascend to unreachable heights, asterisk or no.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +380
3. Alabama defeats Texas
All-time head-to-head record: The Longhorns and the Tide have played 11 times, most recently a crucial game earlier this season, with Texas holding an 8-2-1 overall edge.
How it would go down: Nobody makes Nick Saban taste his own blood twice. The Jalen Milroe of January 2024 is not the same Jalen Milroe of September 2023, and that’s the difference. All the mistakes Milroe made in that Texas loss in September — holding the ball too long, remaining in the pocket — have been addressed, and the result is another Alabama natty.
The postgame narrative: The Alabama Revenge Tour of the past couple of years — Texas, LSU, Tennessee, Georgia — is complete. Would Saban even think of stepping away now?
Likelihood it’ll happen: +400
2. Washington defeats Michigan
How it would go down: Turns out Michigan isn’t quite so tough when it doesn’t (allegedly) know what’s coming. The Wolverines lose in a footrace with the high-scoring Huskies, who give Michigan’s defense a challenge it hasn’t faced all season. The questions about Jim Harbaugh’s postseason record — which would reach seven straight losses — will turn to growls after this one.
The postgame narrative: Washington rolls into the Big Ten with the national championship that Michigan couldn’t buy. And Michigan continues to face questions about 1) Whether Harbaugh can win it all and 2) Just how exactly they got this far, anyway.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +1300
1. Texas defeats Alabama
How it would go down: Steve Sarkisian threw everything he had at the Tide in September. He has gotten more since. A second anti-Bama game plan includes shutting down the newly mobile Milroe — Georgia tried a two-spy defense that worked, right up until it didn’t — and relying on the Longhorn offense to overwhelm the Alabama line and put the Tide secondary on skates to win a shootout.
The postgame narrative: Texas beats Alabama twice in a season, then strides into the SEC like Vince McMahon. They’re back, and they’re better than you. Get used to it.
Likelihood it’ll happen: +600
