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Randy Peterson’s Iowa State/Big 12 predictions: Will Cyclones beat newcomer Cincinnati?

Eli Sanders stood in one corner of Iowa State’s interview room, politely answering one question after another. How does he feel his season has gone, how’s his health and things like that, when a questioner wondered what a Sanders-Abu Sama offensive formation might produce.

“I’d throw a block for him, and let him show what he can show in the open field,” Sanders said without hesitation regarding the former Southeast Polk star.

I’d have asked Sama the same thing, but Matt Campbell, like many major-college football coaches, doesn’t let true freshmen talk to the media.

That didn’t stop me from speculating about eventually – and maybe just for a play or so a game – using two of the Cyclones’ fastest players at the same time.

More: Everything you need to know about Saturday's Iowa State football game vs. Cincinnati

How about an Iowa State offense that includes both Abu Sama and Eli Sanders on the field at the same time? Stay tuned.
How about an Iowa State offense that includes both Abu Sama and Eli Sanders on the field at the same time? Stay tuned.

A version of that happened back in the day with Breece Hall and Kene Nwangwu. Will we see something similar this season?

“We’ll continue to evolve as those guys continue to evolve with us,” Campbell said Tuesday. “We continue to evolve − especially as those two continue to play good football.  You’ve got so many of those guys playing good football, that you’re constantly trying to match your personnel, and trying to find the best matchups for you in the football games.”

More: Peterson: Iowa State ventures Saturday into the Big 12's land of the unknown newcomers

So, will we see that unique combination during Saturday’s 11 a.m. game at Cincinnati - one running, and the other available to catch a pass after coming out a split-back backfield?

While I can’t answer that, I’ll take a shot at questions from the Register’s Iowa State text group as the Cyclones embark on the season’s second half.

Has an expansion team beaten a non-expansion team yet?

Houston beat West Virginia on a Hail Mary Thursday night. Until then, newcomers were 0-7 against legacy Big 12 teams. Houston had lost against TCU and Texas Tech; UCF against Kansas State, Baylor and Kansas; Cincinnati against Oklahoma, and BYU against Kansas. After Thursday's Houston miracle, Big 12 newcomers enter the weekend with a 2-8 record against Big 12 opponents The other victory was BYU against Cincinnati.

Is Iowa State charging toward a bowl game?

I wouldn’t say the Cyclones are charging toward that goal. What happens in the next four games, and especially Saturday, will be very telling. Following the bye week after facing Cincinnati, Iowa State plays at Baylor, at home against Kansas, and at BYU. If the Cyclones play like they played against TCU, then those are very winnable games. If not, then they’re also very losable. The last thing Iowa State wants is needing to beat Texas and/or Kansas State in the final two games to reach bowl eligibility.

Will Jake Remsburg start?

Iowa State offensive lineman Jake Remsburg is eligible to play on Saturday at Cincinnati
Iowa State offensive lineman Jake Remsburg is eligible to play on Saturday at Cincinnati

Now that the redshirt senior’s six-game suspension has been lifted, he’s eligible to play Saturday, but start? The 6-foot-6, 325-pounder hasn’t played since starting at right tackle in last season’s final six games. He’s been practicing throughout most (if not all) the season, but there’s a difference between practice shape and game shape.

“We just have to be smart,” Campbell said this week about the guy who can play all line positions. “Where’s he fit, and what’s it look like?”

Campbell won’t tinker with the starting lineup as long as it keeps improving. My hunch, however, is that Remsburg plays.

Randy Peterson’s pick for Iowa State vs. Cincinnati

Iowa State (2-1, 3-3) at Cincinnati (0-2, 2-3)

Time, TV, line: 11 a.m., FS1, Cincinnati by 4½

Where Iowa State has the edge: Let’s say the Cyclones at least slow a running game that’s averaged 220.2 yards a game. Let’s say Cincinnati is forced into a Plan B, and let’s assume that alternate plan is quarterback Emory Jones. If that’s the case, he’ll be throwing into a defense with a Big 12-best 10 interceptions that includes four by Jeremiah Cooper and three by all-over-the-field Beau Freyler.

Where Cincinnati has the edge: This would be a rushing game that features Corey Kiner (85.2 yards a game) leading the nation’s 10th-best rushing attack. Iowa State must also be wary of quarterback Jones’ versatility. If receivers are defended, then he’s not been shy at running the ball.  He’s the team’s No. 2 rusher, and he’s doing it at a 4.7-yard per rush clip. That could be trouble for a young defense that’s been a bit of a rollercoaster through the first half of the season.

Prediction: Iowa State is trending positive, especially the offensive line and the running game. Campbell’s team knows the score – in this case, they know that during the next four games they’ve got realistically a 50-50 shot at winning. Texas and Kansas State are the regular season’s final two opponents. A 50-50 shot in those games is probably not as realistic. IOWA STATE 27, CINCINNATI 24.

Thursday’s game

West Virginia (2-0, 4-1) at Houston (0-2, 2-3)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, West Virginia by 3 ½

Prediction: Neal Brown’s Mountaineers have won four in a row, while continuing to prove his Big 12 Media Days point – that his team won’t be as bad as preseason predictions. On the hotseat entering the season, my guess is that he’s now OK – unless the wheels totally fall off. I don’t envision that happening in this game, even though Houston’s Dana Holgorsen is a former West Virginia coach. His team has lost three of its last four games and is coming off a 48-28 shelling by Texas Tech. WEST VIRGINIA 24, HOUSTON 21

Saturday’s other games

No. 24 Kansas (2-1, 5-1) at Oklahoma State (1-1, 3-2)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., FS1, Kansas by 3 ½

Prediction: The game boils down to this: Will Oklahoma State’s defense outperform Kansas’ offense, considering Jayhawks QB Jalon Daniels is highly doubtful? The Jayhawks are most adept at rushing, while the Cowboys have had problems stopping opposing ground games. Mike Gundy's team is coming off its bye week, while Kansas has been going strong since the season’s first game.  OKLAHOMA STATE 27, KANSAS 24

Kansas State (1-1, 3-2) at Texas Tech (2-1, 3-3)

Time, TV, line: 6 p.m., FS1, Texas Tech by 1 ½

Prediction: At the beginning of the season, this game was all-Kansas State. Now, it’s not so clear. Texas Tech is better than I expected, while the Wildcats’ loss at Oklahoma State is perplexing – aside from the fact the game was played in Stillwater. Still, it’s not beyond comprehension Kansas State plays enough solid defense to stay on course for a second Big 12 Conference championship game appearance. KANSAS STATE 30, TEXAS TECH 27

BYU (1-1, 4-1) at TCU (1-2, 3-3)

Time, TV, line: 2:30 p.m., ESPN, TCU by 4 ½

Prediction: This is a renewal of their Mountain West Conference rivalry, and if this game is anything like their 2005 game when TCU beat BYU 51-50 – hang on tight. That wasn’t happening, however, even before news surfaced this week that Horned Frogs quarterback Chandler Morris will miss the game due to an injury suffered last week at Iowa State. That’s reason enough to believe TCU’s losing streak extends to three games. BYU 37, TCU 17

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson is in his 51st year writing sports for the Des Moines Register. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, on X @RandyPete, and at DesMoinesRegister.com/CyclonesTexts

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Picks, predictions for Iowa State football vs. Cincinnati, Big 12 games