Can Providence basketball reach March Madness? Yes it can, here's how
Providence College enters the last quarter of its Big East men’s basketball schedule on Wednesday night.
A clear path remains to an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. The Friars could have the majority of their work already done before taking the Madison Square Garden floor for the conference tournament in March.
The last five games offer significant opportunity, and it starts with Wednesday night's game at Xavier. Providence will be looking to avoid a season sweep against the Musketeers, who dominated the second half in an 85-65 thumping at Amica Mutual Pavilion on Jan. 13.
Marquette away, Villanova at home, Georgetown away and Connecticut at home follow this visit to Cintas Center. The Huskies could already be regular-season league champions when they visit for an 8 p.m. tip on March 9. It makes for a tasty finale before the short train ride to Manhattan.
A quick reminder — the Quadrant system is based on the NCAA’s NET rankings. Those are a marriage of several factors — strength of schedule, performance at home versus elsewhere, statistical efficiency measured by the likes of KenPom.com and more. Compiling an 11-9 record in the Big East (fifth out of 33 in conference NET) is going to be worth more than finishing 14-2 in the Northeast Conference (31st out of 33).
More: Big East rankings: UConn, Marquette are the cream of the conference. Can anyone catch up?
How can the Friars make their best case for an eighth March Madness appearance since 2013-14? Here are a few steps they can take between now and Selection Sunday:
Escape the First Four Out
As of Tuesday morning, Providence was the first team outside the field of 68, according to both ESPN’s Bracketology and Bracket Matrix.
The Friars were 17-9 overall and 8-7 in the Big East through 26 games. They stood 56th according to KenPom.com and 60th in the NET rankings. Providence was 57th in overall NET strength of schedule but just 244th in nonconference NET strength of schedule — that's a definite sore spot.
Butler, Gonzaga, Seton Hall and Ole Miss were the last four teams in the field, according to ESPN. Nevada, the Rebels, Utah and Gonzaga were the last four teams in the field, according to Bracket Matrix. Any of those programs could stumble the rest of the way, but beware — there are others who will also be approaching in the rearview mirror.
Win two of the next three games
Xavier in Cincinnati, the Golden Eagles in Milwaukee, the Wildcats downtown — that's a pair of Quadrant 1 games and a strong Quadrant 2 matchup. Providence is currently 4-6 in Quadrant 1 and 3-3 in Quadrant 2. Bolstering those victory totals could help make the difference.
More: A loss to DePaul could have ended Providence basketball's NCAA bid. But the Friars answered
The Friars are just 2-6 in true road games, and one of those wins was at dreadful DePaul. It’s the weakest section of their resumé. The Musketeers and Marquette both represent the type of chances bubble teams crave at this point of the year.
Taking care of Villanova would earn a season split and avoid what could be a direct comparison to the Wildcats among the last teams considered for the field. Providence wouldn’t want to open any door for the committee to prefer a different option.
Beat Georgetown
The Friars don’t have a loss in their 10 games against Quadrant 3 or Quadrant 4 opponents. Any loss to the Hoyas would be painful enough, but the timing here would make it even worse. No program should expect any favors from the selection committee if Ed Cooley delivers a damaging upset against his old school on March 5.
Fall short of those targets? Upset Connecticut
UConn is the defending national champion and the consensus No. 1 team in the polls this week. You wouldn’t expect the Huskies to fall off in the next three weeks and that Saturday night meeting will be electric.
What an impression it would make if Providence closes its 20-game league schedule with a victory here. Going just 1-2 against that first group of three, suffering the unthinkable against Georgetown — those sins could be wiped away by souring UConn’s expected first league title celebration since the 2005-06 campaign.
The obvious, of course: the Friars would almost certainly be dancing with a record of 5-0 or 4-1 in these games. Providence would also receive additional opportunities with a deep conference tournament run. Picture a road to Saturday night’s final of the Hoyas or Blue Demons in the opener and any two of Marquette, Creighton and the Pirates in the quarterfinals and semifinals. Three straight wins against that group — barring something like an 0-5 or 1-4 disaster over the next three weeks — would almost certainly push the Friars into the back end of the NCAA field.
Buckle up, Providence fans. It’s time to hit the gas pedal.
Providence Friars remaining schedule
Wednesday at Xavier, 8 p.m.Feb. 28 at No. 7 Marquette, 7 p.m.March 2 vs. Villanova, noonMarch 5 at Georgetown, 7 p.m.March 9 vs. No. 1 Connecticut, 8 p.m.
On X: @BillKoch25
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Five regular-season games are left for Providence basketball
